February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Just looking at more info and which one is giving us a chance to get some more winter weather. The AO per the models is going to crash and head towards negative. My guess is when you something like this the PV or at least part of the vortex is going to set up shop somewhere in southern Canada. The other tellies are not ones that imo spells winter weather so should be interesting to see if the PV does set up shop.

[tron777]

Just looking at more info and which one is giving us a chance to get some more winter weather. The AO per the models is going to crash and head towards negative. My guess is when you something like this the PV or at least part of the vortex is going to set up shop somewhere in southern Canada. The other tellies are not ones that imo spells winter weather so should be interesting to see if the PV does set up shop.

If the EPS is right, we'll get back into a -EPO / -AO / -NAO type of pattern. That can work with a -PNA. Typically a -PNA is bad for us since you get a trough out West and a SE Ridge in the East. However, with that ridge bridge up top, that will help offset those warmer impacts.

[Bgoney]

February snow totals for the 2000s. Comes out to an average of 6.8” per year

IMG_3149.jpeg

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 45, DAY 37 and CMH 36 on Sat.

Phil says "Good Morning!" HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY!!

[tron777]

Good morning all! Phil saw his shadow so 6 more weeks of winter! Of course he is only right 35% of the time.

Back to real forecasting and it'll be cloudy for a good chunk of the week. Next shot for significant rain is Wed into Thurs then again on Saturday next weekend. Not sure about any frozen precip esp for I-70 folks occurring at precip onset so that will need to be watched.

Models are still showing snow chances to varying degrees after 2/10. So far, my thoughts remain unchanged.

[tron777]

12Z GFS and CMC are still looking wintry for the area post 2/10. I am liking the idea more and more as new model runs come out.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS and CMC are still looking wintry for the area post 2/10. I am liking the idea more and more as new model runs come out.

Les you have been all over this ideal and I agree the closer it gets to that period the chances are looking better, Getting this nice break of milder air is what you need for a reload of the vortex. Still would love to see the NAO head back towards negative and we need that for some bigger storms to form and when I finally saw the AO all of sudden decide to show a big drop towards negative that was a key that something was up. I was not sure which way to go pattern wise and I thought about 3-5 days ago it was a 50/50 shot whether we would be mild or cold. With that drop of the AO those odds are more 60/40 in favor of the cold returning. How long does it stay and that is another problem. When we see the polar vortex make an stop in southern Canada in February this usually means tons of overriding events and that brings the frz/rain or sleet more likely to occur. Of course will need to look at that with each storm and give me rain before frz/rain anytime as I am really done with ice this season lol.

[tron777]

Tim... what I am seeing right now are two more rain makers then we are at the post 2/10 period. Between then and the 18th, 3 maybe even 4 systems look to move thru. This period could get very interesting with snow on multiple days being possible as long as we are on the right side of the boundary of course. 12Z Euro is in and it shows some potential also. 12Z GEFS members look very snowy too.

[tron777]

66 is the record high tomorrow at CVG set back in 1883. It is going to be a close call! Mild weather continues this week then winter comes roaring back after the 10th. Watching 18Z GFS and it's a Cincy on north snow storm for the 11-12th.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and enjoy the warmth on Monday. A few more items besides the AO tanking is the models also were showing the PNA going negative and that has reversed and expect it to stay positive. The mjo looks to be in the warmer phases 4 and 5 but other items look to be the dominant driver of the pattern. If we can get another 2 weeks of decent winter weather this will no doubt be a nice winter imo

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 57, DAY 50 and CMH 46 today.

[airwolf76]

just got around an inch of snow overnight. winter is not done that is for sure

[tron777]

Good morning friends! Overnight guidance hasn't changed much with the overall idea that I am expecting. Individual storm systems change with regards to track and timing but the overall idea of mild this week with a couple of rain makers then after 2/10, we are back to winter, is still looking very very solid. Once we get towards this weekend, we should have a much better idea on how the post 2/10 period will go.

[tpweather]

Good morning friends! Overnight guidance hasn't changed much with the overall idea that I am expecting. Individual storm systems change with regards to track and timing but the overall idea of mild this week with a couple of rain makers then after 2/10, we are back to winter, is still looking very very solid. Once we get towards this weekend, we should have a much better idea on how the post 2/10 period will go.

Good Morning Les and you are on fire in the prediction department. You are seeing the baseball likes its the size of a basketball. Several days ago you mentioned the mjo and what is needed for the weather to head back to winter. The gfs all along was showing it going through 5 and 6 which are much warmer phases. The latest its in phase 5 and why we are milder but it heads to the COD just like you saw and yes some of the other models had it going into the cod but you were always going towards the mjo would go into the cod. The Euro has not been great with certain storms this season but it has stayed with the colder side in the long range and that has played out. Do we see a stretch of 2 weeks with winter like weather and looking more and more likely. Second half of Feb would be nice because once you get into March winter weather is possible but with the amount of added sunshine and just climo winter weather in March is more like cold and rain and no thanks.

[tpweather]

Looks like some of the short term models are trying to show a brief period of frz/rain with the system on Wednesday. I really don't believe this is a problem at all and with this warmth today the surface temps will not doubt have gone up. We do get a decent shot of cold after the mid-week system as we wait until the weekend for the next system. Timing and how fast precip flows back in here will determine if any frozen precip happens at the start. I guess early Saturday morning its possible for a little frozen stuff but again nothing major at all and mostly rain once again. Then after that we see how much cold air sinks further south and where will the boundary set up. Lots to talk about and no doubt Feb going to be busy.

[tron777]

Thanks Tim! Any freezing rain concerns I think will be over ILN's N counties. Most of us here on the forum should be fine. I also am not buying the severe wx threat either that some models are showing. That should stay to our SW. So anyway, our next rain maker is on Wed esp in the afternoon thru the overnight ending Thurs morning. Time and time again, models keep overdoing the QPF on these systems. I could see some heavier totals if t-storms get involved, otherwise around a quarter to half inch looks good. Then we'll do it again Fri night thru Sat night.

Then we will see how things go post 2/10. The MJO currently is moving and continues to do so in phase 5 and perhaps even 6. The Euro keeps it going into 7 and then Phase 8 around, or just after mid Feb. GEFS keeps it in a weak 7. GEFS has been trending towards the EPS / Euro solutions anyway (turning colder with time, Euro family has been cold all along). I love seeing the ridge bridge in the extended range. That traps the PV underneath it and keeps the country cold and stormy. That is what we are looking for to get another sustainable run (like 2-3 week period).

[tpweather]

Les I still look at the AO and very seldom have I seen such a turnaround with that tellie. What a drop and this means the PV is forecast to be on this side of the planet. May be another stretching but no other reason for such a wild ride. Also the PNA last week kept showing a negative trend and that has flipped back to positive again and with this less of a southeast ridge. The Nao is still predicted to be positive but not as much from last week showed. Can we get that to go negative and its possible and one of the ways this happens is Europe gets cold and pushes the ridging over Greenland plus if we can get a strong low to get stuck over eastern Canada then we have a much higher chance of getting some stronger systems. Tons of moving parts and getting closer to spring this happens quite often

[tron777]

Something else we need to keep an eye on too.... The OH River at Cincinnati is at 40.5 feet this morning at 7am. 41 feet is action stage, minor flood stage is 52 feet. It is forecast to crest at 41 feet tomorrow then begin falling. I wanted to bring this up for those of you who live near the river or have interests. Let's hope the rain is not too heavy from the next couple of systems and with the active pattern continuing, I hope we get snow versus rain, which will help with the flooding risks for at least a little while.

[tron777]

Les I still look at the AO and very seldom have I seen such a turnaround with that tellie. What a drop and this means the PV is forecast to be on this side of the planet. May be another stretching but no other reason for such a wild ride. Also the PNA last week kept showing a negative trend and that has flipped back to positive again and with this less of a southeast ridge. The Nao is still predicted to be positive but not as much from last week showed. Can we get that to go negative and its possible and one of the ways this happens is Europe gets cold and pushes the ridging over Greenland plus if we can get a strong low to get stuck over eastern Canada then we have a much higher chance of getting some stronger systems. Tons of moving parts and getting closer to spring this happens quite often

I think the blocking Tim is forcing the PV south once again. It may split too which could be interesting, esp if we get the ridge bridge to trap it underneath. Wow, things may get pretty wild for the country with an active STJ. Shades of 09-10 showing up. Here is the AO forecast from the GFS Ensemble just to show folks what we're talking about.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and getting this 10 days or so of warmth really was needed to reset the pattern. I was expecting the warmth to come in much later in February and one reason I thought that February would be milder than normal. Since it came in much earlier by about 2 weeks of what I thought would happen really gives us a chance to return winter weather back in our area.

[tron777]

Some sun out there now... 57 at CVG, record is 66. It'll be close!

[tpweather]

Some sun out there now... 57 at CVG, record is 66. It'll be close!

Almost shorts weather.

[tpweather]

Hey Les not to concerned about the flooding and like you mentioned folks who live near these areas know the drill. Just not much in the way of snow cover upstream and really like you mentioned rainfall totals have been less than predicted with most systems. Over the next 2-3 week if we see several storms and then build up the snow cover then by early-mid March I believe flooding concerns are much greater. Will just need to see how this plays out but no doubt this mini warm spell has come in handy for many reason including flooding concerns.

[tron777]

Hey Les not to concerned about the flooding and like you mentioned folks who live near these areas know the drill. Just not much in the way of snow cover upstream and really like you mentioned rainfall totals have been less than predicted with most systems. Over the next 2-3 week if we see several storms and then build up the snow cover then by early-mid March I believe flooding concerns are much greater. Will just need to see how this plays out but no doubt this mini warm spell has come in handy for many reason including flooding concerns.

I agree Tim esp if we get more snow versus rain. That would delay the flooding until March as you mentioned. If we get a big snow pack again, then we want it to melt slow., I don't think it'll happen. I foresee an active pattern well into March. I am going with the cold into early March. I don't yet know if we'll make it to mid March for the cold or not.

[tron777]

61 now at CVG. 12Z GFS has 3 different waves from 2/11 - 2/15 that we are watching. Could be rain, snow, ice or everything in between at this distance. We are right on the rain / snow line like usual. We'll have to see how far south the boundary goes with regards to the storm tracks.