Absolute Vorticity

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 10:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:26 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 9:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:44 am Wow! 0Z Crazy Uncle is a forum wide 8-12"+ (10:1 ratio) It's a region wide shut down lol

man thats nice. now i am starting to get just a little jealous lol

As Bgoney stated earlier, I cannot remember when the last time we had a region wide snowfall such as this? (Assuming it comes in as currently advertised lol) Many years! For some of you on this forum you have not seen anything above 6", 8" or 10" mark since Marc h of 2008! I had 10" in Feb of 2021 during that localized CVG Event. That was my last IMBY big one.

im surprised you even had that much from the Feb 21' storm. that one got us both then because i had 20" from that one. which was my last big one also.

It was a heavy snow band and highly localized. Most of our region was much lighter.

12Z GFS - CVG is cutting it close on the mixing line lol

Since I am south of everybody in Williamstown, I am highly concerned about the mixing line. Snow is one thing, freezing rain you can't do anything with.

Nice track right thru TN and SE KY.

allowat3 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:09 am Since I am south of everybody in Williamstown, I am highly concerned about the mixing line. Snow is one thing, freezing rain you can't do anything with.

Yeah.. the threat is not zero for CVG but concerns for sure in our S counties down into Central KY on this issue. Bad news... once it's over, it isn't going to melt with arctic air moving in.

The earlier start on Sunday 10a-1p and then 27-30 hours of snowfall. It’s a killer run, if we don’t have any mixing issues-

It’s like the GFS is trending towards the Euro!

Here comes that snow cover you've been wanting to our West and NW Tim.

Les only one run of the gfs and many more to come but we have not talked to much about the dry air involved with this system. That northeast wind is going to be a winner for some folks and a snow killer for others. Way to early for that equation but central Ohio going to be close this far out. Also when does the heaviest snow fall and yes it makes a difference. Does this occur overnight into the early morning hours and always love any precip in that 4a-9a time period or does it fall more in the 9a-3p say on Monday when temps are closer to 32. Many questions we don't have answers to this far away and still at least 96 hours away until we see that first flake of snow. Still very confident we start out as snow and end as snow but what happens in the middle of the storm is key. Does the storm remain a slow mover or does it move faster than some of the models show. To many factors this far in advance but stuff we will be looking at up to the time the storm starts to develop on Saturday over the central plains

Getting some moderate graupel here right now.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:20 am Getting some moderate graupel here right now.

It has been festive looking at times here too.

Looking a little ahead and its hard to do in winter but once we get a snow pack somewhere in the USA storms that come after many times will follow the southern end of the the snow. Not always especially if you have a really strong cold high move in but not this weekend but next weekend has been on my radar as well and models will be everywhere on this and not worried but the pattern is one that yes can give us another decent system and maybe one with no mixing issues lol

The strength of the low coming out of OK is going to be most important, imo. If its stronger at that juncture than what models currently show it will be slightly further north where it would enter southern Missouri instead of northern Arkansas which is crucial because it moves almost due east from there because of the blocking and would affect mid level warm tongue

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:35 am The strength of the low coming out of OK is going to be most important, imo. If its stronger at that juncture than what models currently show it will be slightly further north where it would enter southern Missouri instead of northern Arkansas which is crucial because it moves almost due east from there because of the blocking and would affect mid level warm tongue

Absolutely! It's the difference between all snow or snow / sleet / frz rain mix for our S counties near and south of the river.

12Z Canadian looks like the GFS. Snow / mix line just S of CVG. Margin for error is small.

Sorry about putting the extended forecast in this thread. Will stop that as this thread is so important lol

12Z GEFS snow mean at 10:1 ratio jumped up to 5-7" across the entire region.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 11:56 am Sorry about putting the extended forecast in this thread. Will stop that as this thread is so important lol

It's cool Tim!

Another difference in the models is when does the storm become the strongest and where does it weaken. Will start to look at that for trends as well. Again for us locally to get a really nice storm of 6 plus inches we need many things to line up correctly. Everyone is pointing out different items and that is why its so important and if one item gets out of whack and can hurt in the snow accumulation department. I believe most folks would just want to see an all snow event even if the totals are more in the 3-6 range than have 2-4 plus a 1/10 and 1/4 inch of ice. Maybe I am wrong but give me all snow every time

12Z UKMET has a similar track KY / TN border but less QPF on the N side of the precip shield. My assumption is dry air? Not sure why as it is a similar strength and track to other models.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 12:18 pm 12Z UKMET has a similar track KY / TN border but less QPF on the N side of the precip shield. My assumption is dry air? Not sure why as it is a similar strength and track to other models.

Les I believe that is one item we look at and that northeast wind can eat at the precip for a few hours and this can knock down totals. Still believe at least Friday before we can really start talking about totals but at least we are looking at almost everything we can get this forecast correct

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 12:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 12:18 pm 12Z UKMET has a similar track KY / TN border but less QPF on the N side of the precip shield. My assumption is dry air? Not sure why as it is a similar strength and track to other models.

Les I believe that is one item we look at and that northeast wind can eat at the precip for a few hours and this can knock down totals. Still believe at least Friday before we can really start talking about totals but at least we are looking at almost everything we can get this forecast correct

If I had to give a range, 4-8" is a nice spread at this time for those that can remain all snow. Potential is there for more should things break right.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 12:02 pm … I believe most folks would just want to see an all snow event even if the totals are more in the 3-6 range than have 2-4 plus a 1/10 and 1/4 inch of ice. Maybe I am wrong but give me all snow every time

You’re not wrong- the ice just becomes a problematic compounding factor when it’s buried in with the snow.

Makes everything more difficult when it comes to cleanup.

12Z Euro so far is a little stronger then 0Z run. Should be interesting here shortly to see what it does.

Eu slightly stronger low coming out of OK

Definitely a north shift in the mix department