Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:01 am Hey Doug... I do think we'll see Phase 8, but I am not yet convinced that the current impulse will get into Phase 1. We shall see... some forecasters out there do believe that it will and the models will trend colder towards the end of next week as a result. It's a long ways out as you know but we will certainly continue to keep an eye on it for sure. I also think that the tropics may play a role which would imply that we stay warm. Lots to watch this time of year as usual.

I hear ya. We will see what happens. If this forecast does actually verify them I will be, at least, a little more optimistic about our chances in December thru February.

We will cool down Fri and Sat to slightly above normal values, but go back to well above normal by Sunday. A few showers are possible mainly Sat night with the warm frontal passage. We could be dry on Monday of next week as we will be warm sectored with severe wx occurring once again in the Plains. I also think that we maybe dry on Election Day as well. By Tues night into Wed, we should see another cold front finally working into the region but I believe that the front will be weakening again thanks to the ridge. It's basically a repeat of the Halloween system for today. Look for the mid to upper 70s Monday and Tues of next week dropping back into the 60s thereafter. All of this is above normal. 50s for highs and 30s for lows is typical of November for temps.

As I stated above... do we cool off into the 50s for highs by the end of next week or not? We shall see as we get closer. We will need to watch the MJO and the tropics to see how the pattern evolves by then. I am going to stick with persistence at this time.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 12:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:01 am Hey Doug... I do think we'll see Phase 8, but I am not yet convinced that the current impulse will get into Phase 1. We shall see... some forecasters out there do believe that it will and the models will trend colder towards the end of next week as a result. It's a long ways out as you know but we will certainly continue to keep an eye on it for sure. I also think that the tropics may play a role which would imply that we stay warm. Lots to watch this time of year as usual.

I hear ya. We will see what happens. If this forecast does actually verify them I will be, at least, a little more optimistic about our chances in December thru February.

Same here Doug. The very -PDO is still very much a concern as has been discussed recently. I am watching that too and I think that is the most important factor. Get that severely -PDO to be less negative and the MJO should fall in line in my opinion. ENSO (La Nina) I don't think is going to be strong enough to become a factor. The -PDO as we know definitely has been and will continue to be. We were at -3.54 for the Sept reading from NOAA so the October reading that will come out sometime next month will be interesting.

Here’s a look at the PDO over the last few decades. I don’t see anything as intense as the current few years

Looking at the above map... October 1956 came close as far as a monthly reading goes, but still not as low as Sept of this year was. We have been in record breaking territory in terms of the -PDO 100% especially if you look at it when averaged out over the course of a year.

Bgoney what a great graph. One thing I did notice was the early to mid 70's when we were rather mild before the 76-77 season and the pdo was negative but nothing like the last few years.

The 1950s had a pretty -PDO and those were some crappy winters before the PDO relaxed and the better winters came back in the 60s and 70s. Until the current -PDO regime relaxes, we will continue to see mild winters. A -PDO isn't terrible mind you, but it is for snow lovers when it is so strongly negative like it has been. It has been dominating the Pacific pattern which has lead to drought and warmth for us over the last several years.

I wish that graph went back to the 1930's and see what was going on with one of the biggest heat waves and droughts over the past 100 years in the USA

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 4:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:47 am they are talking possible record highs tomorrow . which is around 80 for the area. my guess is we get to upper 70s then not as warm for Friday and average for the weekend with highs around 58 then warm again middle of next week. we have already had a freeze here so the growing season is pretty much shot and a lot of stuff is dead and dried to a crisp. it wont take much for an inferno .

No freeze here yet. My local backyard has not even had a frost. 81 is our record for today but we will stay in the 70s due to an approaching cold front / showers.

I am surprised you have not even had a frost in your area yet. here i have had quite a few already and a freeze once or twice. i know overall my area is a little cooler then yours but our weather isn't usually all that different from one another

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 1:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 4:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:47 am they are talking possible record highs tomorrow . which is around 80 for the area. my guess is we get to upper 70s then not as warm for Friday and average for the weekend with highs around 58 then warm again middle of next week. we have already had a freeze here so the growing season is pretty much shot and a lot of stuff is dead and dried to a crisp. it wont take much for an inferno .

No freeze here yet. My local backyard has not even had a frost. 81 is our record for today but we will stay in the 70s due to an approaching cold front / showers.

I am surprised you have not even had a frost in your area yet. here i have had quite a few already and a freeze once or twice. i know overall my area is a little cooler then yours but our weather isn't usually all that different from one another

UHI man.... they are building so much stuff around here lol CVG's lowest temp has been around 33 or 34 I believe, same with my backyard. We're in a bad drought here so ground moisture is lacking.

Good morning all and Happy Friday and 1st day of November to you all! A normal day temp wise today then we warm up again by Sunday thru the 1st half of next week. I will keep a small rain chance in with the warm front on Sunday (not a big deal) then again Tues night into Wed with that next front. We'll have to see how much dry time we can get in on Election Day itself as models vary with the timing. I am going slower at this time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:58 pm I wish that graph went back to the 1930's and see what was going on with one of the biggest heat waves and droughts over the past 100 years in the USA

I don’t know how they can calculate indexes such as this one without the modern observational power of today. The margin of error has to be high and for me renders it useless , but it goes back pretty far into the 1800s

Did you guys see the latest drought monitor? It is coast to coast now with much of the country in some level of drought. I don't recall seeing this much of the country in drought in a very long time!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The ridging has been relentless!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:10 am Did you guys see the latest drought monitor? It is coast to coast now with much of the country in some level of drought. I don't recall seeing this much of the country in drought in a very long time!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The ridging has been relentless!

Yep, good riddance October, probably the driest on record for the US as a whole. At least part of the plains will see some improvement over the next week or two.

Wpc next 7 day qpf forecast still showing what our thoughts have been with with weakening amounts as it moves into the OV , with the reason’s you’ve explained in previous posts

How historically bad was October for our region in qpf. Cvg finished at #2 driest October , KDAY finished at #4, KCMH at #2 since record keeping. Insult to injury, CVG comes in at #5 driest for any month of the year, with similar results for Dayton/Cbus.
Getting less than half an inch for a month is extraordinary AND it’s ongoing

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:18 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:10 am Did you guys see the latest drought monitor? It is coast to coast now with much of the country in some level of drought. I don't recall seeing this much of the country in drought in a very long time!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The ridging has been relentless!

Yep, good riddance October, probably the driest on record for the US as a whole. At least part of the plains will see some improvement over the next week or two.

Wpc next 7 day qpf forecast still showing what our thoughts have been with with weakening amounts as it moves into the OV , with the reason’s you’ve explained in previous posts

Not that I trust the Euro Weeklies or anything but the latest run basically shows a very warm pattern continuing now thru mid December.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:08 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:18 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:10 am Did you guys see the latest drought monitor? It is coast to coast now with much of the country in some level of drought. I don't recall seeing this much of the country in drought in a very long time!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The ridging has been relentless!

Yep, good riddance October, probably the driest on record for the US as a whole. At least part of the plains will see some improvement over the next week or two.

Wpc next 7 day qpf forecast still showing what our thoughts have been with with weakening amounts as it moves into the OV , with the reason’s you’ve explained in previous posts

Not that I trust the Euro Weeklies or anything but the latest run basically shows a very warm pattern continuing now thru mid December.

As long as it gets much wetter along with that it’s ok with me. It’s absolutely crucial at this point we get the soil profile saturated at depth before we get deeper into winter and it’s going to take several inches of qpf to do that. Just normal precipitation isn’t going to do it. We’ll need an extended period for 2-3 weeks like the central part of the US will be seeing currently. Whether or not the SE ridge will allow that in time is the ?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:08 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:18 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 6:10 am Did you guys see the latest drought monitor? It is coast to coast now with much of the country in some level of drought. I don't recall seeing this much of the country in drought in a very long time!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The ridging has been relentless!

Yep, good riddance October, probably the driest on record for the US as a whole. At least part of the plains will see some improvement over the next week or two.

Wpc next 7 day qpf forecast still showing what our thoughts have been with with weakening amounts as it moves into the OV , with the reason’s you’ve explained in previous posts

Not that I trust the Euro Weeklies or anything but the latest run basically shows a very warm pattern continuing now thru mid December.

As long as it gets much wetter along with that it’s ok with me. It’s absolutely crucial at this point we get the soil profile saturated at depth before we get deeper into winter and it’s going to take several inches of qpf to do that. Just normal precipitation isn’t going to do it. We’ll need an extended period for 2-3 weeks like the central part of the US will be seeing currently. Whether or not the SE ridge will allow that in time is the ?

We could use some help from the tropics before they shut down for the season, but as usual, that's always a crap shoot. That, and we also don't want the Gulf Coast to get struck again. Anyway... the SE ridge is going to hold IMO thru at least mid month. We'll see how the rest of November looks once we get closer.

Today is the first day of Snowtalk! Even though none is in our future.

BG's winter outlook from WAVE 3:


https://www.wave3.com/video/2024/10/31/ ... 2024-2025/

Always enjoy Brian's winter forecast and for most on this forum we know the pro's and con's of getting a decent winter if you like cold and snow. The only thing I still have problems with is someone I forget the person's name and how build up of snow in Siberia is a good way to forecast the upcoming winter in terms of cold and snow. I have not been able to see the correlation on a ongoing basis and that is what I need to see to give it more credit. Getting snow in those areas in October is fine but to me more important is getting snow in the northern regions in November and why you say and that is fresh snow which helps lock in the cold more than say snow that fell a week or two ago. Yes many regions up there get very little snow in the so called winter months but for southern Canada and the northern USA fresh snow is more important imo and we need the snow pack to the north like Brian mentioned but also we need recent snows.

Brian's forecast for snow is Louisville and they tend to have some of that city heat and there are times where its snowing everywhere but downtown they can stay rain for several hours. His forecast is for Louisville and usually you could add 3-5 inches to that total for us locally and you have a 8-16 inch snowfall forecast. I believe we get a couple of decent snows which imo is 3 plus inches but expect the clipper train to be busy and yes I can see where we get one of those to be the 3 plus inches and reason being the central and south central USA could be quite mild and having that push against the cold air to the north can help produce a decent clipper.

I have went higher for the reasons stated above but I do agree with him about the drought conditions and he is expecting a wet winter and I agree with that 100p/c though much of that will be rain with some snow added in for good measures. Plenty to talk about and as least starting next week we will see a busier pattern and one I believe will get busier and busier each week in November

I know Les is going for a drier November than myself but I believe we both agree on a milder November and yes October we ended up just shy of 4 degrees above normal for the month which was about an degree higher than I expected but for November I am going a tad higher with maybe 3-5 degrees above normal but fore different reason as October was mild mainly because of afternoon highs but for November I expect the overnight lows to be higher and for that we do need several systems to come our way.

That is my short story to start the so called winter season and usually for me its mid-Nov- mi- March but why not start it a tad early.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 11:49 am Always enjoy Brian's winter forecast and for most on this forum we know the pro's and con's of getting a decent winter if you like cold and snow. The only thing I still have problems with is someone I forget the person's name and how build up of snow in Siberia is a good way to forecast the upcoming winter in terms of cold and snow. I have not been able to see the correlation on a ongoing basis and that is what I need to see to give it more credit. Getting snow in those areas in October is fine but to me more important is getting snow in the northern regions in November and why you say and that is fresh snow which helps lock in the cold more than say snow that fell a week or two ago. Yes many regions up there get very little snow in the so called winter months but for southern Canada and the northern USA fresh snow is more important imo and we need the snow pack to the north like Brian mentioned but also we need recent snows.

Brian's forecast for snow is Louisville and they tend to have some of that city heat and there are times where its snowing everywhere but downtown they can stay rain for several hours. His forecast is for Louisville and usually you could add 3-5 inches to that total for us locally and you have a 8-16 inch snowfall forecast. I believe we get a couple of decent snows which imo is 3 plus inches but expect the clipper train to be busy and yes I can see where we get one of those to be the 3 plus inches and reason being the central and south central USA could be quite mild and having that push against the cold air to the north can help produce a decent clipper.

I have went higher for the reasons stated above but I do agree with him about the drought conditions and he is expecting a wet winter and I agree with that 100p/c though much of that will be rain with some snow added in for good measures. Plenty to talk about and as least starting next week we will see a busier pattern and one I believe will get busier and busier each week in November

I know Les is going for a drier November than myself but I believe we both agree on a milder November and yes October we ended up just shy of 4 degrees above normal for the month which was about an degree higher than I expected but for November I am going a tad higher with maybe 3-5 degrees above normal but fore different reason as October was mild mainly because of afternoon highs but for November I expect the overnight lows to be higher and for that we do need several systems to come our way.

That is my short story to start the so called winter season and usually for me its mid-Nov- mi- March but why not start it a tad early.

Tim.... that man's name is Judah Cohen and he came up with the SAI theory many years ago. SAI - Snowcover Advance Index That theory only worked that one year back when this hit the mainstream media and it's been a bust ever since. It had to do with the build up of snowcover in Siberia during the month of October which was supposed to lead to a more -AO if it was above normal. If I recall, it is below normal as October of this year has now ended.

12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:31 pm 12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Yes I agree Bgoney and once the tropics are finished is when we see the shift to a stormier pattern. Without the tropics the high in the Atlantic should weaken and with the GOM opening up for business systems will slowly invade the Ohio Valley. This is nothing new each fall but its normally mid-Oct we see this unfold compared to early November. We should get some rainfall over the week to 10 days but I still believe that each week that goes by the stormier the pattern unfolds.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:40 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:31 pm 12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Yes I agree Bgoney and once the tropics are finished is when we see the shift to a stormier pattern. Without the tropics the high in the Atlantic should weaken and with the GOM opening up for business systems will slowly invade the Ohio Valley. This is nothing new each fall but its normally mid-Oct we see this unfold compared to early November. We should get some rainfall over the week to 10 days but I still believe that each week that goes by the stormier the pattern unfolds.

I think the only chance we have at putting a dent in the drought over the next 10 days or so is if the tropical system can phase with an incoming front to get the moisture funneled in our direction. Otherwise, we will see some rain but it will be on the light side as the current pattern rolls on.