Absolute Vorticity

5pm 905hpa

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

Milton’s one of a kind Cat 5 movement

NHC's site has crashed!

Error - 503 Service Temporarily Unavailable

The eye is tiny now so this thing is still strengthening. I would expect an EWRC to begin soon so we maybe seeing the peak intensity at the next update.

When I saw the satellite image this morning you could tell it was getting strong very fast. Got home today and heard a CAT 5 and I thought I can't remember a storm getting that strong that quickly. I know a few folks who sold property down on the gulf side this past year and a couple of reasons is when you rent these places out folks don't care and they tear your property up. Second just the cost of insurance is wild. I still have a few folks I know that have places down there and hope everything goes well in the next few days.

Latest recon plane is flying into the eye now so we should get some data back here shortly.

Recon showing 899 MB on their first pass thru the eye. Wow!

NHC site is back up now.

898.6 MB next recon pass. My God.... Milton is the 6th known hurricane to have a pressure sub 900 MB by the way so this is rare territory we are in.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:43 pm 898.6 MB next recon pass. My God.... Milton is the 6th known hurricane to have a pressure sub 900 MB by the way so this is rare territory we are in.

Les this is wild and something Brian mentioned on his video which I thought was wild. With Helene and of course Milton both had systems a few days before that put down plenty of rain ahead of the main storm. Normally you get such a nice high pressure the Hurricanes itself are just the only item we worry about but having back to back storms like this is something I have never seen with the amount of rain a few days ahead of the main systems. Again I mentioned that I thought the hurricane season was a bust on the number of storms predicted and that still may be true but the main issue is what kind of damage of lives and property are a better way to judge a tropical season. 2005 was one I remember for the number of storms and the damage it caused plus I had a cruise booked for July 10th in 2005 out of Tampa and our flight got there around 9pm and we got on the ship but by the next day it was still in port and advise we could get off and get a full refund. That is what I did and booked hotel near Disney but that was not easy plus between Tampa and Orlando many areas had no power and this was not a major hurricane.

Last post then bedtime. Gotta work tomorrow then I am off the rest of the week. If someone is up, please post the 8pm NHC Advisory, thanks! Here's where Milton stacks in terms of pressure.

That is wild and really even after it crosses Florida it still may be a Cat 2 when it leaves Florida. Very flat state and not much to knock it down.

10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.8°N 89.9°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph

Milton went thru an EWRC overnight and has weakened down to as Cat 4. We shall see if it can re-gain it's Cat 5 status or not today. The storm has increased in size due to the EWRC. That will probably happen again prior to landfall as it typical in a strong hurricanes lifecycle.

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

Milton has picked up a little speed now and is beginning to make the turn to the NE. NHC Track is still near Tampa Bay with a 10-15 foot storm surge.

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Good Morning and yes the wind speed went down but this is common in stronger hurricanes as it will continue to reform the eye and expand as well. Also last night the southern end of the storm was over land and this probably knock the winds down as well. The storm is starting its trek towards Florida today and should become a much wider storm and probably will gain strength once again before weakening when it gets near Florida. Weakening to a CAT 3 is still going to cause widespread damage and the storm surge may be one of the highest I can remember near the Tampa/St. Pete area.

A lot of the forecast models continue to paint an ugly situation for Tampa Bay area. Landfall is looking more and more possible right in the bay itself overnight on Wednesday. The surge into downtown and the Airport (assuming this occurs) will be catastrophic. Like I said yesterday, if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, with a track like that, expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge and damage as a result. The area is already weak and saturated from Helene as well as pre-game rainfall ahead of Milton. Just a terrible scenario for a densely populated Metro area, about to unfold.

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR
MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

The destruction / deaths from Helene and then with Milton combined are going to so MAJORLY SCREW UP the 2024 Election voting process e.g.!! **SMH** Voter rolls having to be cleaned UP because of fatalities and polling places damaged and ./ or destroyed along with roadways and streets.

Sadly though, liberals thrive on CHAOS and the MSM bobbleheads will be declaring Queenie MADame Neurotic Cackle Hen the "winner" no matter what on Election night or early the day after!! Add extreme Ma Nature just to make the CROOKED UP Election a heckuva lot worse!

Sorry for the soapbox rant, but the timing of ALL years for the 2024 Tropical Season in the Atl, Car, and GOM to EXPLODE is just mind blowing on so many routes!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:07 am The destruction / deaths from Helene and then with Milton combined are going to so MAJORLY SCREW UP the 2024 Election voting process e.g.!! **SMH** Voter rolls having to be cleaned UP because of fatalities and polling places damaged and ./ or destroyed along with roadways and streets.

Sadly though, liberals thrive on CHAOS and the MSM bobbleheads will be declaring Queenie MADame Neurotic Cackle Hen the "winner" no matter what on Election night or early the day after!! Add extreme Ma Nature just to make the CROOKED UP Election a heckuva lot worse!

Sorry for the soapbox rant, but the timing of ALL years for the 2024 Tropical Season in the Atl, Car, and GOM to EXPLODE is just mind blowing on so many routes!

All good Bro, however, IMO, I think politics should be left out of the discussion in this instance, since these are people's lives that are going to be disrupted, and for some people, this will be a second disruption. For some people, there lives will be changed forever and it'll be months of clean up ahead.

Les posted on this earlier. Here’s a bit more stats