Absolute Vorticity

80 today at CVG, 79 here.

CVG got to 80, DAY 78 and CMH 81 today.

Good morning all! The warm up begins with the mid 80s today and the upper 80s to perhaps 90 Thurs and Fri. Rain chances (50 / 50 chance) comes Friday and Fri night. Cooler and dry this weekend with highs 70 to 75 and lows in the 40s. We are back towards 80 Mon of next week and the mid 80s by Tues. Expecting upper 80s to lower 90s for the second half of next week as the drought continues.

Good Morning and Tuesday was almost perfect in the weather department. Clouds overnight especially from the river southward has kept temps up several degrees. How high do we go the next 3 days and I am still going lower than the models and will keep it at 83-85 for highs. Beautiful weekend and Saturday will no doubt feel like a fall day with temps struggling to hit 70 and some breeze that will make it feel great. Warmer air returns next week but for how long. Without a tropical system getting near the mainland USA the pattern can move right along with fronts every 3-5 days. Tropical systems can usually set up a road block and you get stuck in the same kind of weather for weeks but that is not the case at the moment. We will continue on the dry side overall with a chance later Friday that some folks get in on some rainfall. Temps will go back and forth over the next week and this will keep the average temp by this time next week near average.

Mentioned a week or two ago that it was likely Some Ohio counties would be declared disaster areas, so it comes as no surprise that has happened. Look for counties in the future to be added.



Ohio's exceptionally dry and hot summer has drawn the federal government's attention.

The USDA Farm Service Agency declared 22 Ohio counties natural disaster areas Tuesday due to the state's ongoing drought, allowing farmers to apply for emergency loans from the federal government.

Athens, Belmont, Fairfield, Fayette, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Highland, Hocking, Jackson, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Morgan, Muskingum, Noble, Perry, Pickaway, Pike, Ross, Vinton and Washington counties.

The list of the above counties will probably only grow in the weeks to come. GEFS has below normal precip throughout the entire run out to Day 16. Eventually, the +PNA pattern gives way to a trough over AK and the West with a massive ridge over the Central US, Great Lakes and Canada so more warmth is to come. I still stand by the call of the 90s not being done yet for the season.

Counties in our area are already on the list for assistance


Alongside those 22 "primary" counties, farmers in 18 neighboring counties are eligible to receive emergency loans as well. They are Adams, Brown, Carroll, Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Columbiana, Coshocton, Franklin, Greene, Lawrence, Licking, Meigs, Scioto, Tuscarawas, and Union counties.

Seeing if I can call it into existence

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 2:42 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 2:34 pm hey hey hey! Going into my favorite season- autumn! Yesterday was beautiful- cool, deep blue sky, breeze. Seems to be nice today as well. Hopefully, there will be little to no 90-degree weather days, and we are hoping for another full fall season like we got last year.

I don't think that the 90s are done yet at all. The drought is really going to intensify and the models have backed way off on the cooler weather. Yes, a few cooler days will be in the mix 100%, but the heat will come back. We can expect a few days in the U80s to around 90 later this week. A deep trough comes in for Sunday on into early next week. However, 90+ degree temps are showing up again for a spell after that in the extended range. Normally, I won't buy it but due to the drought, I am buying it at this time unfortunately. As Bgoney mentioned, the Gulf is closed for business and the tropics are severely underperforming when they should be ramping up as we approach the peak of the hurricane season. I just don't see much rain in our future so when we get these big highs coming in, dew points are low, the ground is bone dry, so the temps can easily sky rocket to levels higher then what the guidance is indicating.

That makes sense- thanks for the explanation! Hope the tide turns soon- for the drought and our temperatures!

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:26 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 4:32 am Good morning all! The warm up begins with the mid 80s today and the upper 80s to perhaps 90 Thurs and Fri. Rain chances (50 / 50 chance) comes Friday and Fri night. Cooler and dry this weekend with highs 70 to 75 and lows in the 40s. We are back towards 80 Mon of next week and the mid 80s by Tues. Expecting upper 80s to lower 90s for the second half of next week as the drought continues.

Ooph I am ready for summer to get on outta here.

Me too! I wish I had better news.

It is what it is!

Thanks to cloud cover, my mid 80s call could be in jeopardy for today. Only 71 as of 11am at CVG.

12Z GFS continues the dry theme and the heat showing low to mid 90s for the second half of next week. I will continue with my call of U80s to L90s at this time for the region.

EU about the same , dry for much of the central part of the country . Not as high with the heat next week “only” 10-20 degrees above normal for the mid section of NA , while the GFS is 20-35 above

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:58 am Thanks to cloud cover, my mid 80s call could be in jeopardy for today. Only 71 as of 11am at CVG.

88 so far at cvg.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 5:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:58 am Thanks to cloud cover, my mid 80s call could be in jeopardy for today. Only 71 as of 11am at CVG.

88 so far at cvg.

I just saw that! With the drought and some late day sunshine, we can still overachieve. 90+ shouldn't be an issue now. I only hit 85 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 5:30 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 5:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:58 am Thanks to cloud cover, my mid 80s call could be in jeopardy for today. Only 71 as of 11am at CVG.

88 so far at cvg.

I just saw that! With the drought and some late day sunshine, we can still overachieve. 90+ shouldn't be an issue now. I only hit 85 today.

Yep , the drought covers a much bigger area than the last couple weeks, difference maker

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 5:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 5:30 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 5:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:58 am Thanks to cloud cover, my mid 80s call could be in jeopardy for today. Only 71 as of 11am at CVG.

88 so far at cvg.

I just saw that! With the drought and some late day sunshine, we can still overachieve. 90+ shouldn't be an issue now. I only hit 85 today.

Yep , the drought covers a much bigger area than the last couple weeks, difference maker

The map tomorrow should show a big expansion of all categories. Same with the week after next, etc.

Good morning! The lack of precip and the intensifying drought our the big weather stories. The only chance of rain in the next 7-10 days is tomorrow and it's not looing good for all areas at that. Some will get missed, others could see 0.25 to 0.50" esp if you happen to get a stronger t-storm. I am giving it a 50 / 50 chance. The secondary story is the roller coaster ride in temps. We could hit 90 today and come close tomorrow. Then upper 60s to low 70s this weekend with lows in the 40s! A nice taste of October! Then, we moderate and get back into the upper 80s to the lower 90s for the second half of next week. The 0Z GFS has no widespread, or soaking rains out to 16 days. One or two scattered chances maybe is about it. Terrible, terrible news. The Euro is dry thru Day 10 after Friday. The tropics look very quiet and any wave that's out there shows no signs of organization or development at this time.

Sums it up nicely Les, cool shot is great who-Dey weather .


Reading some of the agricultural reports in the disaster areas in much of the southern half of Ohio is sad. Loss of crop yields or total loss, pasture fields dried up for 3 months providing no feed for livestock, so farmers have to buy shipped in hey . Culling the herd because they can’t keep up. Ponds and creeks dried up so they have to haul water to the animals. Personal wells going dry. It’s already one of the worst droughts in history for Ohio and no end in sight. The amount of rainfall needed to alleviate in these areas is mind boggling

Good Morning and I no doubt missed the forecast on highs for the end of this week. The dry weather which I knew was around and sometimes you forget to add that to the equation like I did for this week. Les your forecast looks great. Bgoney Mother Nature is always throwing curve balls and my son up in Northern Wisconsin last year saw his pond dry up completely but this year it is overflowing and shows how she is always trying her best to balance the weather. Will we get back to normal levels in rain this year and no but my guess by this time next year we will be back towards normal. Very seldom do we have more than 2 years of below normal rainfall in our area and sure it can happen but its rare. Going to love the weekend weather and my niece is getting married so it won't be hot in a suit lol

Congrats to your niece Tim! It is indeed wonderful weather for an outdoor wedding. We'll see the new drought map shortly and someone will get it posted once the drought site updates. No doubt that it will continue to paint a grim picture. One of the worst droughts locally that I can recall was from 1988 and again in 2007. The drought this year is certainly another one for the books esp in Ohio as Bgoney mentioned.

The region has had 3 straight year of summer/fall drought. I don’t think those being affected atm are thinking about next year