Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 7:58 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 7:47 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 7:43 am Next weeks pattern looks more like early September than early August. A decent cold front in the northern USA,tropical system in the southeast and plenty of heat as well.

Currently Tim.... I am seeing more in the way of cooler weather versus hot weather once we get past early next week. The extended range looks like we get back into NW flow with possible MCS's. This can change, however, should the tropics ramp up further or more then expected. It's too early to know that at this time.

I agree Les and just a wait and see approach. Not leaning either way at the moment and need to see if the tropical system becomes stronger. I am looking at the pattern next week more typical of early September with nice weather in the northern plains and upper midwest,tropical action in the southeast and rather stormy and warm to hot along the east coast. Since its only early August though I tend to lean warmer but just too early to say that with to much confidence.

I think we are in agreement in an overall sense Tim. We tend to phrase our posts differently which is fine. We are human after all. Just another reason that makes our forum such a great place to talk weather!

Yesterday was good for me in the rainfall department - .35" in the morning and .75" last night. Last nights storm included a well placed lightening strike leaving me without power for 3 hours.

Light rain being reported at CVG as of the 9am reading. Looks like NKY is getting clipped by the batch of rain that is heaviest south of our forecast area. Visible shows some sunshine back across SW and Southern IN but it'll take a while to get here. Thus, I am expecting only scattered tuff this afternoon and evening. Same ole, same ole in terms of morning clouds / rain ruining any PM chances.

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 9:00 am Yesterday was good for me in the rainfall department - .35" in the morning and .75" last night. Last nights storm included a well placed lightening strike leaving me without power for 3 hours.

Glad to see you cashed in also Bo!

A light shower or heavy mist here. Won't add up to much but you can still feel the humidity in the air.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 9:12 am A light shower or heavy mist here. Won't add up to much but you can still feel the humidity in the air.

Ditto that in Mason. It is a London or Seattle kind of day today lol

The boys are more optimistic then I am in terms of storm coverage this afternoon.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Through mid morning, forecast area will be in a relative lull in
terms of pcpn chances as a mid level disturbance exits to the east
and a mid level low approaches from the northwest. It will be mostly
cloudy with mist/fog until the low level moisture mixes out with
diurnal heating.

For later this morning and into this afternoon, ascent associated
with the approaching mid level low and low level forcing with its
weak frontal boundary will interact with a destabilizing airmass to
result in numerous showers and thunderstorms. Given that the airmass
is moist, and we should reach at least moderate instability.
Therefore, there could be scattered strong storms, with perhaps an
isolated severe storm. Damaging winds would be the primary severe
weather threat. In addition, with pwats still between 1.50 and 2.00
inches, locally heavy rainfall may result in some flooding issues.
Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s.

Les I am with you on this one from the nws. Sure plenty of moisture but my guess isolated storms possible and yes still tropical in nature so you can get a nice amount in a short amount of time. My guess is the further east the better shot as well. If the sun pops out over the next few hours that can help chances but at the moment still socked in with clouds

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 9:57 am Les I am with you on this one from the nws. Sure plenty of moisture but my guess isolated storms possible and yes still tropical in nature so you can get a nice amount in a short amount of time. My guess is the further east the better shot as well. If the sun pops out over the next few hours that can help chances but at the moment still socked in with clouds

I am in 100% agreement with the bolded part especially Tim. 12Z NAM / 3KM NAM also agree.

Seeing some pop up activity in IN and Eastern ILL associated with the final low pressure system to move thru for this week. Still socked in with low clouds here in Mason. Looks like fall (minus the humidity)

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 12:02 pm Seeing some pop up activity in IN and Eastern ILL associated with the final low pressure system to move thru for this week. Still socked in with low clouds here in Mason. Looks like fall (minus the humidity)

Same here Les and a rather thick cloud cover. No doubt we will see some rainfall this afternoon but like some of the winter storms north of us and we get the spokes of energy. Hard to pin down as well. Saw Brian's video and I agree about it getting hot early in the week and this happens quite often with a tropical system near the gulf coast. I also agree if the system moves up the east coast next week we can get that day or two where a dry and cooler day or two. Still too early and these tropical systems have a mind of their own. He does mentioned we may go back into a MCS pattern and that is unusual for mid-August. If that should occur going to be hard to get a heat wave of any length though 1-3 days is possible but also putting down more rainfall helps the vegetation and yes the nights will be getting longer. I know Brian mentioned we can still have a drought in September and sure that can happen but usually when we get a drought in September it starts in August and then takes hold in September. I don't see the August part of that happening at least through the first half of the month and maybe longer.

Good post Tim and I am in agreement with you. in the short term for this afternoon.... I am expecting scattered downpours and that's about it. Your location may get something, it may not. That kind of deal.

Another brief shower here. Took a ride this morning and its like night and day compared to most of June and July as the grass is green in many spots.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 12:40 pm Another brief shower here. Took a ride this morning and its like night and day compared to most of June and July as the grass is green in many spots.

Check out the regional radar loop. You can see the mid level / upper low dropping in with isolated shower activity resulting in those brief downpours. Due to all of the low clouds and fog, this is why I am not expecting the coverage or intensity to get out of hand today.

As of 1:18pm from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to continue increasing
during the mid/late afternoon hours as an upper level trough moves
into the area and diurnal instability builds. Forecast soundings
show skinny CAPE profiles and weak shear in place. These parameters
suggest updraft strength and storm organization should be limited.
Thus, only a marginal risk for severe weather exists with isolated
microbursts being the main threat. An isolated flood risk could
develop if storms end up training or moving slow given the weak
steering currents and high PWATs in place. Winds increase out of the
west later this afternoon. Westerly winds, mostly cloudy skies, and
precipitation help keep highs limited to the lower/middle 80s.

Shower and storm coverage should diminish this evening with the loss
of diurnal instability. PWATs and low level moisture content remain
high under the trough tonight. Abundant moisture and weak flow are
likely to support low stratus formation that could result in some
pockets of visibility reductions late. Forecast lows are in the
upper 60s.
-----------------------------------

Radar is showing a few bands of storms working their way into the region. 80 / 74 as of 2pm at CVG.

Starting to rain again here in Mason.

Looks like the NWS may have hit this afternoons forecast. About ready to get hit with a storm and the thunder is quite loud already

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 2:47 pm Looks like the NWS may have hit this afternoons forecast. About ready to get hit with a storm and the thunder is quite loud already

I hope my hood gets in on the action. Guess I'll find out once I get home lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 2:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 2:47 pm Looks like the NWS may have hit this afternoons forecast. About ready to get hit with a storm and the thunder is quite loud already

I hope my hood gets in on the action. Guess I'll find out once I get home lol

Starting to rain harder and the thunder and lightning is quite pronounced

First spoke of storms finished. We will see how many more spokes occur or will they get together and form a bigger episode.

----

Next spoke knocking on the door and do I get a third one later this afternoon.

Just had a nice downpour here right after I got home. 0.15" as of 4pm at CVG for today. Boone Co mesonet site has over an inch of rain,... wow! I sit right in between those two reporting stations. Just goes to show you how localized the heavier totals are.

Ha, there was a nice little line moving into Western Ham Co. and just like that it fizzled out with just some sprinkles. Not much hope for the activity NE of Indianapolis that's moving south in that rotation ever getting to SW OH. I guess I'll have to wait till the middle of next week and that may be an IF!