Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:50 am Where they do form though it will be very heavy rain with high PWATS. Just hope our hoods can cash in on one or two of these storms then we should be good to go. Next week is looking pretty active too so some better news long term IMO.

Les, if you were to put out a percentage and best chance on when for Thursday between 4pm and midnight on the scattered activity, what would your best guess be? Thanks

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 12:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:50 am Where they do form though it will be very heavy rain with high PWATS. Just hope our hoods can cash in on one or two of these storms then we should be good to go. Next week is looking pretty active too so some better news long term IMO.

Les, if you were to put out a percentage and best chance on when for Thursday between 4pm and midnight on the scattered activity, what would your best guess be? Thanks

It's a tough call. If we get rain in the morning or around midday then that would calm things down and offer up a window for fireworks. That is kind of what the NAM is showing. GFS is higher chances in the afternoon and evening because the morning has less in the way of convection. HRRR doesn't go out far enough yet.

EDIT: But to answer your question... I'd have to go with 50-70% coverage taking a model blend. The good news... Saturday is a viable option should you need to change your plans if convection does hit. That may not be possible for you to alter your plans however and I get that.

LOL.... 12Z Euro coming in showing very little convection Wed with the highest chances Thurs and Fri afternoons. With the Euro's solution you would be able to get in your fireworks both evenings for the most part.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 12:09 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 12:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:50 am Where they do form though it will be very heavy rain with high PWATS. Just hope our hoods can cash in on one or two of these storms then we should be good to go. Next week is looking pretty active too so some better news long term IMO.

Les, if you were to put out a percentage and best chance on when for Thursday between 4pm and midnight on the scattered activity, what would your best guess be? Thanks

It's a tough call. If we get rain in the morning or around midday then that would calm things down and offer up a window for fireworks. That is kind of what the NAM is showing. GFS is higher chances in the afternoon and evening because the morning has less in the way of convection. HRRR doesn't go out far enough yet.

EDIT: But to answer your question... I'd have to go with 50-70% coverage taking a model blend. The good news... Saturday is a viable option should you need to change your plans if convection does hit. That may not be possible for you to alter your plans however and I get that.

Thanks Les, Looks I'll just reschedule for Saturday, I don't have much room in the house for people should there be storms Thursday afternoon! Lol

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 2:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 12:09 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 12:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:50 am Where they do form though it will be very heavy rain with high PWATS. Just hope our hoods can cash in on one or two of these storms then we should be good to go. Next week is looking pretty active too so some better news long term IMO.

Les, if you were to put out a percentage and best chance on when for Thursday between 4pm and midnight on the scattered activity, what would your best guess be? Thanks

It's a tough call. If we get rain in the morning or around midday then that would calm things down and offer up a window for fireworks. That is kind of what the NAM is showing. GFS is higher chances in the afternoon and evening because the morning has less in the way of convection. HRRR doesn't go out far enough yet.

EDIT: But to answer your question... I'd have to go with 50-70% coverage taking a model blend. The good news... Saturday is a viable option should you need to change your plans if convection does hit. That may not be possible for you to alter your plans however and I get that.

Thanks Les, Looks I'll just reschedule for Saturday, I don't have much room in the house for people should there be storms Thursday afternoon! Lol

IMO it's a tough call in this set up. Some folks will see a lot of rain and some not so much. It's just hard to tell exactly until the storms start firing.

Good Afternoon and not a bad day and yes temps rising but humidity not bad for early July. Wednesday and I still believe we may get to heat advisory levels as we have a front to the northwest,temps starting out warm in the low 70's and dew points rising fast. This should be the worse of the next 7 days and really the only time I see us approaching heat advisory levels. Rainfall and yes we need the rain and once again some folks are going to get hit with some decent rains starting later Wednesday and lasting through Friday. I wish this was a call that everyone got 1-3 inches but its not the case. Tons of moisture available and even if you get hit hard the atmosphere can ramp up quickly once again. Lets hope that most folks get at least 1 inch and though not a drought buster it does help. The weekend looks nice with lower humidity and temps probably in the mid 80's so near normal conditions. Concerning the tropical system and I still believe it stays well to the south but again the moisture feed into the central USA will be strong next week so chances of more beneficial rains is there for the taking. So hopefully by mid-month we are getting some decent rains and rally not ramping up the temps to much.

Nice post Tim! I agree with the overall ideas. I think rainfall amounts will vary greatly like they have been. Some folks will be in that 1-3" range certainly by Fri night. Other areas may only get 0.25" or less. It's just the way it goes with t-storms, but hopefully our domes down here in NKY will spring a leak over the next few days. The weekend as you said looks nice esp on Saturday for my party. I'm digging that! I keep getting more people RSVPing. We may have 35-40 people here alone not counting the other 3 houses. Could be 150-200 people on my street by the time all is said and done! Googly Moogly!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:53 pm Nice post Tim! I agree with the overall ideas. I think rainfall amounts will vary greatly like they have been. Some folks will be in that 1-3" range certainly by Fri night. Other areas may only get 0.25" or less. It's just the way it goes with t-storms, but hopefully our domes down here in NKY will spring a leak over the next few days. The weekend as you said looks nice esp on Saturday for my party. I'm digging that! I keep getting more people RSVPing. We may have 35-40 people here alone not counting the other 3 houses. Could be 150-200 people on my street by the time all is said and done! Googly Moogly!

Les I hope you keep the noise down lol. I love bit parties with tons of food and drink and to celebrate the 4th of July is even better. We are so lucky to live in this country with the freedoms we have. Not sure what I will be doing but food and drink will be on the menu. We have the grand kids down and who knows what we will be doing. Just hope next week we can add to any rain totals from this week before the chances start to dwindle as we head towards the second half of July.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 4:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:53 pm Nice post Tim! I agree with the overall ideas. I think rainfall amounts will vary greatly like they have been. Some folks will be in that 1-3" range certainly by Fri night. Other areas may only get 0.25" or less. It's just the way it goes with t-storms, but hopefully our domes down here in NKY will spring a leak over the next few days. The weekend as you said looks nice esp on Saturday for my party. I'm digging that! I keep getting more people RSVPing. We may have 35-40 people here alone not counting the other 3 houses. Could be 150-200 people on my street by the time all is said and done! Googly Moogly!

Les I hope you keep the noise down lol. I love bit parties with tons of food and drink and to celebrate the 4th of July is even better. We are so lucky to live in this country with the freedoms we have. Not sure what I will be doing but food and drink will be on the menu. We have the grand kids down and who knows what we will be doing. Just hope next week we can add to any rain totals from this week before the chances start to dwindle as we head towards the second half of July.

I won't be a bit surprised if you don't hear it or see it from Independence! But yeah... tons of food indeed! I will be battling Mother Nature smoking 2 pork butts on Thursday for the party. The day of the party, I'll be grilling tons of hot dogs, brats and jalapeño cheddar dogs. A guy I work with also has a smoker and is supposed to be bringing smoked chicken legs. My Mom is making mac n cheese, potato salad, a fruit tray and lord knows what else. Other folks will be bringing desert too. I will be grocery shopping tomorrow and yes need to buy more beer of course. All that is left is to decorate and put up a canopy on Sat and do a little fireworks testing with my two remotes in between storms on Friday. I wish my Dad was here to see it. He loved this Holiday almost as much as Christmas. He got me started with my love of fireworks and pyrotechnics. I know he'll be watching from Heaven Tim and be just as amazed at this fireworks show as I will be. I mean we have more fireworks this year then ever before!

88 as of 4pm at CVG. Do we get 89'ed today or can we register one of those sneaky 90s? Definitely should see 90+ tomorrow IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 4:11 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 4:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:53 pm Nice post Tim! I agree with the overall ideas. I think rainfall amounts will vary greatly like they have been. Some folks will be in that 1-3" range certainly by Fri night. Other areas may only get 0.25" or less. It's just the way it goes with t-storms, but hopefully our domes down here in NKY will spring a leak over the next few days. The weekend as you said looks nice esp on Saturday for my party. I'm digging that! I keep getting more people RSVPing. We may have 35-40 people here alone not counting the other 3 houses. Could be 150-200 people on my street by the time all is said and done! Googly Moogly!

Les I hope you keep the noise down lol. I love bit parties with tons of food and drink and to celebrate the 4th of July is even better. We are so lucky to live in this country with the freedoms we have. Not sure what I will be doing but food and drink will be on the menu. We have the grand kids down and who knows what we will be doing. Just hope next week we can add to any rain totals from this week before the chances start to dwindle as we head towards the second half of July.

I won't be a bit surprised if you don't hear it or see it from Independence! But yeah... tons of food indeed! I will be battling Mother Nature smoking 2 pork butts on Thursday for the party. The day of the party, I'll be grilling tons of hot dogs, brats and jalapeño cheddar dogs. A guy I work with also has a smoker and is supposed to be bringing smoked chicken legs. My Mom is making mac n cheese, potato salad, a fruit tray and lord knows what else. Other folks will be bringing desert too. I will be grocery shopping tomorrow and yes need to buy more beer of course. All that is left is to decorate and put up a canopy on Sat and do a little fireworks testing with my two remotes in between storms on Friday. I wish my Dad was here to see it. He loved this Holiday almost as much as Christmas. He got me started with my love of fireworks and pyrotechnics. I know he'll be watching from Heaven Tim and be just as amazed at this fireworks show as I will be. I mean we have more fireworks this year then ever before!

Les what a wonderful post and I know your Dad will be looking down enjoying every minute.

Les have seen how the NWS had scaled back the heat in the extended. They finally caught up to us on this forum

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 4:19 pm Les have seen how the NWS had scaled back the heat in the extended. They finally caught up to us on this forum

Yes I saw. I see 90+ tomorrow easily ahead of the front with heat indices of 100-105 so as you said before (and I agree) heat advisory criteria is certainly there. Watch one doesn't get issued. Anyway... after that we may not hit 90 at all next week should we see a daily chance for storms as I am expecting with a trough lingering over the area. We need to cash in because (as you know) those 90s will be returning and in a big way for the second half of July.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:40 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:22 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:52 pm

I've always wanted to visit Alaska! Hope you had a wonderful time Dave!

you should definitely go! I thought Hawaii was beautiful, but man, Alaska has it beat all to heck! In fact, I was more than a little surprised by places like Juneau where there were lots of beautiful flowers/plants. I was expecting mountains and snow and fir trees, but there was so much more there. You being a fisherman I think you'd really love the opportunities for fishing too.

We had an Alaskan cruise planned last year. We went with Celebrity cruises because they were one of the only companies who did dialysis at sea for my Dad. We had a lot of excursions planned too including halibut fishing. My Mom, Dad, me, my cousin and his wife were all set to go. Then a couple of months before the cruise date, some rich a-hole bought out the entire cruise ship and our plans were cancelled. We were pretty pissed about the whole thing.

WOW, that really sucks, man. We sailed on NCL Encore. They were pretty good, the ship was beautiful, only real downer was the reschedule of our return flight which left us stuck in the airport all day Sunday. Hopefully you will get there soon. It's worth the effort, but it is a pretty difficult travel. Just make sure you don't forget to pack anything. Things are expensive there, made Hawaii look positively affordable by comparison.

I'll get there someday!

Prayerfully and hopefully the other side will lose the WH and then inflation can gradually erode to be able to make it more affordable, Bro!

Currently 86 here in G'ville.

CVG reached 91, DAY 88 and CMH 89'ed today.

CVG hit 90 as of 5pm. My high was 88 today.

A nice breeze today should mitigate the heat a bit. 2 or 3 rounds of hit and miss storms starting late today through Friday. Lots of dry time to party. Good luck to all and have a great 4th

Good Morning and back to summer lol. NWS did issue a heat advisory and though it will be close when you combine temp and dew points there is more to a heat advisory than just the numbers. A couple of really nice days and then today boom the dew points head up quickly and it takes time for the body to adjust and that is one reason I thought today made sense to issue the advisory. I believe maybe once all summer we met the criteria.

Concerning rain chances and again better shot Thursday and especially Friday but later today I would expect some to pop up but probably isolated. Thursday and Friday chances go up but again we are trying to overcome a short term drought so you are not picking up moisture from the ground which helps with showers and thundershowers.

The weekend looks wonderful with temps in the 80's and dew points nice and probably upper 50's and low 60's. Then early next week we repeat the pattern once again with a nice jump in humidity and chances of rain later Monday-Wednesday.

So maybe not the best pattern in the world but for early July not going to complain and really if we can get some decent rains that would help us as we head into the middle and end of July.

Good morning all! Nice posts from Tim and Bgoney this morning and I don't have much too add since they have us covered nicely., We are fair game for pop up storms after 4 pm but I think our best chance for Cincy and NKY will be this evening. Then we'll have to see what happens the morning of the 4th which dictates how the afternoon will go. Friday also offers up a nice chance with a cold front setting us up for a nice weekend for partying!

Little change in drought status across the region

Looks like 12z NAM is hinting at less convection for this afternoon/evening. Thoughts?

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:27 am Looks like 12z NAM is hinting at less convection for this afternoon/evening. Thoughts?

I saw that too! I hope some of the fireworks displays can get in at that 9-11 pm window tonight!

Good Afternoon quite muggy but as Bgoney mentioned this morning the nice breeze helps big time. Not sure which model is correct with timing of showers and thundershowers and as we know these tend to change quite often time wise depending what has happened in the past. Still believe the best shot for everyone is on Friday but I do expect a few rounds before then. Hopefully the storms can miss the firework time period and really would love to see some overnight tonight and early Thursday morning to help out with the dry conditions.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:33 am

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:27 am Looks like 12z NAM is hinting at less convection for this afternoon/evening. Thoughts?

I saw that too! I hope some of the fireworks displays can get in at that 9-11 pm window tonight!

We’ll know soon enough if HRRR is on to something, showing storms/showers popping 3ish in SE IN/ SW OH while hires Nam waits until 7ish and then the NAM which as you said much less if any

Lucky for us the hurricane is staying further south as a movement north could have put us in a hotter pattern and the really hot and humid weather is southwest of us over the next few days. The Hurricane though throws up added moisture which hopefully we can grab hold of some. These Hurricanes can really push up a stronger ridge to the north of that area and that seems to be the case with the current one. So if the Hurricane season is as busy as expected we will have periods where the ridging will try and move into our area. The good thing at the moment is a continued pattern of cold front coming out of Canada and though sooner or later you would expect this to slack off and sooner or later Canada will have some summertime patterns but this is one of the coolest late spring or early summer that I have remembered in several years. This is also holding back the Bermuda Ridge that forms in the summer and it has already but has so far been unable to find a home near us though has tried to visit once in awhile