Absolute Vorticity

Thundering pretty good here now as that cell is approaching my hood. The rain is light atm, but heavy rain is about ready to start up here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 9:03 am Thundering pretty good here now as that cell is approaching my hood. The rain is light atm, but heavy rain is about ready to start up here.

Good Morning Les and have had heavy rain for a good 15 minutes already so this is going to be a nice dose of rain for some folks.

You Kentucky boys must be going to church on Sundays

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 9:04 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 9:03 am Thundering pretty good here now as that cell is approaching my hood. The rain is light atm, but heavy rain is about ready to start up here.

Good Morning Les and have had heavy rain for a good 15 minutes already so this is going to be a nice dose of rain for some folks.

Yes Sir... this is great! I can see the lawn growing right now as it rains lol Picked up a quick 0.15" and could easily get 0.25 to 0.30" out of the deal.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 9:15 am You Kentucky boys must be going to church on Sundays

As a matter of fact I do!

Well hello there!

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...The following counties in southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio and Switzerland. the following counties in northern Kentucky,
Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and Kenton. The
following county in southwest Ohio, Hamilton.

* WHEN...Until 1230 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 921 AM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5
inches are possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Fort
Thomas, Newport, Edgewood, Alexandria, Elsmere, Fort
Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Taylor Mill,
Bellevue, Fort Wright, Dayton, Lawrenceburg, Greendale and
Ludlow.

AFD update also from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fcst was updated a bit to increase PoPs this morning into this
afternoon as there is already quite a bit of SHRA/TSRA activity
in various pockets throughout the ILN FA. Although the severe
threat remains very low, very heavy downpours and frequent
lightning is occurring with some of this activity. Isolated
heavy rain/ponding of water has already occurred, with some
stations from Owen to Boone Cos KY picking up more than an inch
of rain in ~30 minutes. Brief ponding of water can be expected
with these rates, with isolated flooding due to 1.5 to 2 inches
possible in the more persistent bands.

I checked the SPC meso page and there is actually a weak low right on top of us here in NKY at 1015 MB which is helping to produce this band of heavier rainfall. Assisting in the beefier totals is the slow movement of the precip. It's humid... dews are in the low to mid 60s with PWATS running 1.4 to 1.5" so there you go! All of the above is working together to help out NKY's lawns and gardens.

Hey Les and this is why trying to get the a decent forecast with the correct amounts. These tropical rains are hit and miss and while some folks may have got very little in the past 24 hours like me and then boom getting over an inch in a couple of hours the forecast goes from a bust of to high to a bust of to low. Probably better with this kind of system and just like we see in the summer is to tell folks you may get very little rainfall but if you get under a nice cell those totals can easily go over an inch in no time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 9:37 am Hey Les and this is why trying to get the a decent forecast with the correct amounts. These tropical rains are hit and miss and while some folks may have got very little in the past 24 hours like me and then boom getting over an inch in a couple of hours the forecast goes from a bust of to high to a bust of to low. Probably better with this kind of system and just like we see in the summer is to tell folks you may get very little rainfall but if you get under a nice cell those totals can easily go over an inch in no time.

Exactly. It's a case of the haves and have not's. A lot of the time folks like Mike and I complain about our domes. Glad mine has a big hole in it currently. Hope to see the folks out East cash in like Bgoney. I am sure those areas could use the rain since they have not been seeing as much as we have. I assume the same could be said for our I-70 Crew as well.

Next week is a rather busy week with several chances of rain and maybe some severe weather. By late in the week and next weekend a really decent shot of cool air heading this way. Easily see temps in the 60's during the day and 40's at night and really if the timing is correct would not be surprised to see a few upper 30's either Saturday or Sunday morning. Hopefully everyone gets a decent amount of rainfall over the next 5 or 6 days and with cool air coming in behind this will help the vegetation and soil moisture.

Rain has stopped and ended up with 1.77 inches.

Sorry the rain started up again but light and the atmosphere is just ringing out the remaining moisture. So total will go up slightly in the next hour or so. Much cooler since the rain and much of the humidity has been used.

I have an 11:15 annual appt on Wed 5/8 with a specialist at UC Health in Clifton about my liver which is, thankfully, stable and unchanged. I hope that any strong / severe storms hold off until at least late afternoon that day.

Still getting a steady rain here as of 11am with the back edge just S of Union, slowly moving northward in this direction.

Event totals:

CVG - 0.54"
Me - 0.50"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.41"

Rain has finally eased up now as the area of rain continues to weaken and move off to the north.

Updated Totals:

CVG - 0.65"
Me - 0.58"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.43"

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 11:25 am Rain has finally eased up now as the area of rain continues to weaken and move off to the north.

Updated Totals:

CVG - 0.65"
Me - 0.58"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.43"

Nice totals Les and I got hammered here and that is how the next week or so will pan out.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 11:25 am Rain has finally eased up now as the area of rain continues to weaken and move off to the north.

Updated Totals:

CVG - 0.65"
Me - 0.58"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.43"

Nice totals Les and I got hammered here and that is how the next week or so will pan out.

Agreed Tim. Carroll Co mesonet got just shy of an inch and the Campbell Co one was over 1.1". Location, location, location...

Les I believe the remainder of the day will be mostly dry but watching some showers and thundershowers developing over Tn. The movement if north by northeast so it looks like later today much of the rains will be south and east. Not sure how quick the atmosphere recovers and its early May not June or July where we can recover quickly. So going isolated this afternoon and evening but any cell can drop some decent amounts in a short period of time.

Last year we were already starting the short term drought we had last year but this year is not last year and we are getting some decent rainfall plus folks to the west as well. Saw many farms in Illinois where you had some flooding but not everywhere.

Finally looked at models this afternoon and not doing a great job as each run will have a different placement of rain over the next 5 days. No doubt they paint a busy period but with new info coming in the placement of the rains tend to be different each run. This tells me the atmosphere is loaded in the eastern half of the country and several small pieces of energy moving around looking for a place to cause problems lol.

By the middle of week we are still looking at some possible severe weather but again to far away with timing at this point. We may have a bigger piece of energy by then which can help in getting storms stronger.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 11:59 am Les I believe the remainder of the day will be mostly dry but watching some showers and thundershowers developing over Tn. The movement if north by northeast so it looks like later today much of the rains will be south and east. Not sure how quick the atmosphere recovers and its early May not June or July where we can recover quickly. So going isolated this afternoon and evening but any cell can drop some decent amounts in a short period of time.

Last year we were already starting the short term drought we had last year but this year is not last year and we are getting some decent rainfall plus folks to the west as well. Saw many farms in Illinois where you had some flooding but not everywhere.

Had a couple of showers on the way back from the fireworks store but the sun is back out now here at home. My temp is up to 74 right now, very sticky outside too. The action on radar is definitely scattered atm.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 12:27 pm Finally looked at models this afternoon and not doing a great job as each run will have a different placement of rain over the next 5 days. No doubt they paint a busy period but with new info coming in the placement of the rains tend to be different each run. This tells me the atmosphere is loaded in the eastern half of the country and several small pieces of energy moving around looking for a place to cause problems lol.

By the middle of week we are still looking at some possible severe weather but again to far away with timing at this point. We may have a bigger piece of energy by then which can help in getting storms stronger.

Agreed Tim... even after this week, the extended range continues to look active with strong fronts diving in out of the NW. Maybe a little MCS action? We shall see! The good news is that our lawns and gardens should be very healthy going into the summer months.

.10” 48 hr total here. NKY and central Hamilton by and large the winners locally.

Currently there are two localized areas of heavy rain going on. One near Xenia and the other batch running from Hillsboro NE to Greenfield Otherwise, the rest of what is out there on radar is very spotty and isolated. I think that will be the case tomorrow as well, very spotty and isolated. Then we get into the meat and potatoes of it all next week.

Both CVG / CMH got to 76 and DAY 77 today.