Absolute Vorticity

Steady as she goes. Still forecast to be a cat one when it hits Yucatán .5pm update

Cat 5 Beryl barreling through the Caribbean.

11pm update last night . Beryl was barreling at 22mph!!

5am update

What an incredible storm breaking the record for the earliest Cat 5 in the ATL Basin! Simply astonishing!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:43 am What an incredible storm breaking the record for the earliest Cat 5 in the ATL Basin! Simply astonishing!

In the modern satellite and observation era (30-40 years) a rare occurrence indeed. That the MSM are saying “Ever” is factually baseless and absurd.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:15 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:43 am What an incredible storm breaking the record for the earliest Cat 5 in the ATL Basin! Simply astonishing!

In the modern satellite and observation era (30-40 years) a rare occurrence indeed. That the MSM are saying “Ever” is factually baseless and absurd.

That and them linking this as absolute proof of "Manmade Climate Change". But wow, this is a storm for the ages for certain!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:35 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:15 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:43 am What an incredible storm breaking the record for the earliest Cat 5 in the ATL Basin! Simply astonishing!

In the modern satellite and observation era (30-40 years) a rare occurrence indeed. That the MSM are saying “Ever” is factually baseless and absurd.

That and them linking this as absolute proof of "Manmade Climate Change". But wow, this is a storm for the ages for certain!

Agreed guys, very nice points! Still at 165 as of 8am.

11am update . The next day or so it will encounter some shear and weaken as it hits Yucatán

Beryl is down to 160 now as of the 11am update so the weakening process has already begun. The latest IR satellite shows that fairly well. Still a dangerous storm for the rest of today and tomorrow most certainly.

Down to 155 mph as of the 2pm update.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:42 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:35 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:15 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:43 am What an incredible storm breaking the record for the earliest Cat 5 in the ATL Basin! Simply astonishing!

In the modern satellite and observation era (30-40 years) a rare occurrence indeed. That the MSM are saying “Ever” is factually baseless and absurd.

That and them linking this as absolute proof of "Manmade Climate Change". But wow, this is a storm for the ages for certain!

Agreed guys, very nice points! Still at 165 as of 8am.

Yes and Sleepy didn't miss another chance to take a grandstanding shot at MAGA this afternoon via the D.C. weather bureau.

Oh and Joe its called SUMMERTIME hence a usually hot season! I wish Dims could understand the Natural Cycle of things in atmospheric nature but it appears hopeless for them to get a grip on that.

NHC hasn’t really altered much the projected path , still forecast a cat 1 for Yucatán , skimming Jamaica as a cat 3. Good news is it’s still motoring at 22 mph

As of 5pm, Beryl is still holding at 155 mph.

5am. Still slowly weakening. NHC has been spot on ,imo with this storm and track

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AS THE EYE OF
BERYL APPROACHES...
...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Most of Jamaica should be in the 73-95 mph range with current movement

5pm

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH STRONG WINDS,
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THERE LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

11am. Looks like landfall for the US will be 50-75 mls either side of the Tex/Mex border as a cat one

Beryl is at 110 mph as of the 2pm advisory.

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
605 AM EST Fri Jul 5 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of
Beryl has made landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula just
northeast of Tulum.

A Weatherflow station at Xcaret Park recently reported sustained
winds of 59 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). A
Weatherflow station at Xel-Ha Park recently reported a pressure of
980.9 mb (28.97 inches).

SUMMARY OF 605 AM EST...1105 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 87.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...BERYL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 88.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

5pm update. A north shift up the Texas coastline from previous track . Still landfalling as a cat one