Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:23 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:34 pm Les have a wedding that day so that seems correct lol. Only 40 so far today and this shows this quick shot of cold meant business even with the late Feb sun temps struggling to rise today. That seems to be the theme over the next few weeks with mild to warm periods then rain and a quick shot of polar air and I say polar because I believe we are getting some from the polar regions and if not then Canadian air which at the moment is polar in nature.

Hi Tim,

Congrats to the happy couple and to you and your family, bro!

Thanks Eric, hope you and your family are doing well in the new digs. Ready for baseball to say the least. I do enjoy the college bb in March but I know its nearing baseball season and plan on hitting several games this year.

You're quite welcome Tim. My folks and I are doing well and we recently put some cherry wood furniture items that we've had for a long time on Marketplace.

Yes sir Opening Day is March 28th vs. the Nationals and looking forward to it! Hopefully my Dad, myself, and some cousins from here in Greenville will take in a game or two this summer.

Good morning all! Headed to Lake Erie after work this weekend so of course I won't be posting much after work. Weather looks good once we get past that little pesky light rain maker this afternoon. I am going with a dry Monday now with highs in the 70s. POPS are needed Monday night thru perhaps even Thurs of next week as waves of low pressure move along a stalled out frontal boundary. How much we get depends on where the front is and track of each low. I personally do not expect severe wx at this time. If that changes, we will of course talk about it next week.

FYI: ECMWF has a new Euro AI computer model now. You can see it on the Tropical Tidbits website. It will be labeled as EC-AIFS. This is experimental of course so take any solutions it shows with a grain of salt until we see how good or bad the model does with future storm systems. It goes out to 14 days or 360 hours too so we'll see if it can give the GFS a run for its money or not.

As of 2/28 we have re-emergence into Phase 3 per the Aussies. Do we get one last cold shot of air and / or some flakes between 3/15 and Easter? There is actually a small signal showing up but of course that is the fantasy range of the models so we will certainly take it with a grain of salt. Until then, I still expect mild weather overall and potentially, above normal precip. Outside of Monday, next week on into the weekend still looks very active so some good news there for sure. Hopefully it pans out and we can ease the drought concerns at least for a little while. Teleconnections are looking a bit better too. Possible weak +PNA, -NAO, -AO combo inbound in the next 10-14 days.

Good Morning and a nice little area of light rain near and south of I-64. That is heading this way. At the moment would not be surprised if a little sleet or big snowflakes involved with the radar echos. By the time it gets here just a nice cold light rain. Weekend and Saturday is a wildcard because still only early March and can be hard to get clouds out of here. Could be a deal where its cloudy much of the day with temps in the 40's then mid-afternoon the sun comes out and we get into the 50's. Sunday looks great with temp near 70 and Monday nice as well with a increase in clouds but rain should hold off until after dark and looks like another day on the golf course which makes 3 this early in the season. Keep this up and I should be in mid-season form by April which again is still not good but you hang with the guys and have a few beers.

The boys agree Tim....

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
A band of weakening precipitation is moving northeastward into
far southwest portions of the area this morning. Observations
across Louisville have shown some snow mixing in as the
precipitation arrives. This due to wet-bulb cooling as
saturation occurs. Even with temperatures warming into the 40s
in the next couple of hours, added a brief mention of Rain/Snow
in the far southwest.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all! Headed to Lake Erie after work this weekend so of course I won't be posting much after work. Weather looks good once we get past that little pesky light rain maker this afternoon. I am going with a dry Monday now with highs in the 70s. POPS are needed Monday night thru perhaps even Thurs of next week as waves of low pressure move along a stalled out frontal boundary. How much we get depends on where the front is and track of each low. I personally do not expect severe wx at this time. If that changes, we will of course talk about it next week.

Les enjoy the trip and hope the weather is nice. Next week does look busy and hopefully much of the central plains eastward gets some decent rains. The one area I do worry about is Texas and though an El NIno year many systems went well to the south of them and if they become dry and warm in March this can lead to an early heat wave for them which we know can expand later north and east.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all! Headed to Lake Erie after work this weekend so of course I won't be posting much after work. Weather looks good once we get past that little pesky light rain maker this afternoon. I am going with a dry Monday now with highs in the 70s. POPS are needed Monday night thru perhaps even Thurs of next week as waves of low pressure move along a stalled out frontal boundary. How much we get depends on where the front is and track of each low. I personally do not expect severe wx at this time. If that changes, we will of course talk about it next week.

Les enjoy the trip and hope the weather is nice. Next week does look busy and hopefully much of the central plains eastward gets some decent rains. The one are I do worry about is Texas and though an El NIno year many systems went well to the south of them and if they become dry and warm in March this can lead to an early heat wave for them which we know can expand later north and east.

Next week has the potential for rain Tues - next weekend depending on where the front stalls and also how each low tracks along said front. I watched BG's video today and we still cannot discount a touch of wintry precip for the 2nd half of March. Anyway.... we have some things to keep an eye on going forward which is good. We've had enough boring weather over the past year. It's time for Mother Nature to kick it up a notch.

February rankings




Just one of the many grass/brush fires in Texas

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:59 am
Just one of the many grass/brush fires in Texas

I think some of the smoke particles made it up our way via the jet stream with the last rain we had the other day. Probably why my car is filthy now.

Snow/rain mix in Indian hill

Only light rain here but cold.

Nothing yet in Mason.

Mostly ice pellets still

Ok... the parking lot outside looks a little damp now. Whatever is falling is extremely light. Can't tell from up on the 6th FL if it's light drizzle or ice pellets but it is definitely doing something outside now.

Just a wonderful day lol. Saturday should be better but how long before clouds move out. Sunday looks great with temp near 70 and Monday may be a record high and not sure what that is but could hit 75 .

Have a great trip Les!

Both Sun and Mon look absolutely fabulous and temp-wise, too, as has been mentioned!

CVG got to 45 and both DAY / CMH 46 on Fri.

2012 tornado anniversary summary from ILN done a couple years ago . Well worth a review.



https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5a ... ec34d75740

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:55 am 2012 tornado anniversary summary from ILN done a couple years ago . Well worth a review.



https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5a ... ec34d75740

Such a sad day and when you lose a friend and how it happened makes you sick to your stomach.

Both CVG / CMH reached 51 and DAY 52 on Sat.

A nice foggy start as warm air surges over colder air at the ground. Hopefully by noon the fog will lift and probably enough fog this morning to keep temps in the mid-60's. Monday is a mid-May kind of today though the wind will be rather strong at times and can we hit 75 and I believe yes. Rain moves in on Tuesday and Wednesday and though both days will be dreary amounts with this system should be near 1/2 inch is my guess. Models still having problems with precip totals and with many systems over the past year they tend to be high on totals until a few days before and event. Another system later in the week which at the moment looks promising for a decent rain but again will watch and see if we can get over an inch with this system.

A chance of scattered t-storms also on Tues but this time around, thankfully, just garden-variety.

Currently 59 here in G'ville and progged for around 64 later this afternoon.

CVG reached 65, DAY 68 and CMH 66 today.