Absolute Vorticity

GFS has been slowly sliding east with the track, one of the reasons being it keeps the LP a bit weaker. Got to keep an eye on that.

06z Mon vs 06z today.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:04 am GFS has been slowly sliding east with the track, one of the reasons being it keeps the LP a bit weaker. Got to keep an eye on that.

GEFS is doing the same. EPS is not. If anything it continues to get stronger with the SLP and even more NW. Once La Bomba gets out of the way, we should be able to see which model camp is correct.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:04 am GFS has been slowly sliding east with the track. Got to keep an eye on that.

It has. Let's hope that for once it does better than the Euro. Here's the ensemble means.

Do we have the same risk of it being too warm?

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:48 am Do we have the same risk of it being too warm?

As of now, this looks to be a rain maker on Friday. Storm track still TBD for backside snow late Fri night into the day on Sat.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:50 am

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:48 am Do we have the same risk of it being too warm?

As of now, this looks to be a rain maker on Friday. Storm track still TBD for backside snow late Fri night into the day on Sat.

I figured so- thanks!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:55 am

Hey MJ! Hope all it well.

I missed this- Hi- things are good! This snow weenie is just hitting her never-ending frustration with SW Ohio winter LOL!

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:50 am

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:48 am Do we have the same risk of it being too warm?

As of now, this looks to be a rain maker on Friday. Storm track still TBD for backside snow late Fri night into the day on Sat.

I figured so- thanks!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:55 am

Hey MJ! Hope all it well.

I missed this- Hi- things are good! This snow weenie is just hitting her never-ending frustration with SW Ohio winter LOL!

This NKY snow weenie agrees! I'm right there with you lol

We'll have a weak system scooting by to our north on Thurs which is the table setter for the storm track for the next big monster low due in Fri and Sat. As previously discussed, we should get a further SE track to give us a better shot at backside snows. After another inch or so of rain on Friday, I think an inch or two is certainly on the table for this one in terms of backside snows later Fri night and into the day on Sat. Winds will be very strong with this system as well. Another wind advisory is almost a certainty.

Pretty substantial shift east on the 12z GFS for 00z Sat.

00z run last night had the low on the IL/IN border, 12z run today has it over SW OH...

12Z GFS has a 983 MB low blasting right thru our area (a hair SE of Cincinnati) on its way deepening into the mid 970s MB over NE Ohio. Winds will be very impressive with this one, probably more then what we are seeing today with La Bomba.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:57 am Pretty substantial shift east on the 12z GFS for 00z Sat.

00z run last night had the low on the IL/IN border, 12z run today has it over SW OH...

The CMC as well. The low was over northern Indiana on the 00z. Northwest Ohio on the 12z. So far the models have had the windshield wiper effect the last several days between central and northern Indiana to western and northern Ohio for the most part. If we don't see any more substantial shifts to Southern or Eastern Ohio on the next model run or two, in my opinion, we can pretty much lock this track in and hope for a couple of inches of backside snow at best.

Doug,,, I am expecting a low track near Cincinnati at this time with an inch or so of heavy rain and 1-2" possible for back side snows.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:42 am Doug,,, I am expecting a low track near Cincinnati at this time with an inch or so of heavy rain and 1-2" possible for back side snows.

Sounds like a good call to me. The GFS has been consistently the farthest east with the track. I,too ,would expect a little shift to the south and east by the other models as well. We shall see.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:42 am Doug,,, I am expecting a low track near Cincinnati at this time with an inch or so of heavy rain and 1-2" possible for back side snows.

Sounds like a good call to me. The GFS has been consistently the farthest east with the track. I,too ,would expect a little shift to the south and east by the other models as well. We shall see.

I think the Euro / EPS have been too far NW with the track. It make more sense to have this one be further to the SE of the La Bomba track. La Bomba is tracking thru Central ILL > S Lake Michigan > Lower MI and into Ontario. So this system tracking up the OH river Valley and I-71 makes more sense to me versus a track west of us thru Indiana. It is going to depend though on how long it takes this one to strengthen. the longer it takes to deepen, the more SE it will go and vice versa.

I'm waiting for somebody to cave, but it's not happening yet. 12Z Euro is well NW now with the low tracking thru the NW half of IN to a position over S Mich at 968 MB. Then it's still at 968 MB just S of Saginaw Bay Mich. We've got to wait and see which model camp is correct. The ones that are weaker and track the low closer to us or the more amp'ed up camp like the Euro.

Typical looks good a week out then poof RAIN!

EPS matches op pretty well , doesn’t leave much Qpf in the colder temps

Posted on Facebook by BamWx. The low will ultimately be somewhere in the middle of this spread.

Unfortunately none of those change what qpf is left on the backside and the colder temps. A max of .20” or less

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:17 pm Unfortunately none of those change what qpf is left on the backside and the colder temps. A max of .20” or less

Not our storm. I would think that the GFS track would offer a little more hope for an inch or two. So far we have a decent pattern, but same ol same ol unfortunately.

18Z NAM bombs this thing down to 969 MB at 84 hours just a bit west of Detroit. This system looks to put La Bomba to shame if some of the guidance pans out.

18Z GFS is not caving still to the more NW solutions. Still a low track over SW Ohio at 982 MB which eventually deepens to 973 MB over Upstate NY. We still get heavy rains on Fri. The PM commute could certainly be negatively impacted by heavy rain and worse winds that we we saw today. We still get backlash snow Fri night into very early Sat morning but not a lot of QPF to work with as previously stated. I was going with 1-2" but I may need to trim that back also to an inch or less. Just the way it goes.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:14 pm 18Z GFS is not caving still to the more NW solutions. Still a low track over SW Ohio at 982 MB which eventually deepens to 973 MB over Upstate NY. We still get heavy rains on Fri. The PM commute could certainly be negatively impacted by heavy rain and worse winds that we we saw today. We still get backlash snow Fri night into very early Sat morning but not a lot of QPF to work with as previously stated. I was going with 1-2" but I may need to trim that back also to an inch or less. Just the way it goes.

Good Evening and finally have the internet back and running. Les I thought Indy may get a decent thumping out of this and thought a 3 plus inch snowfall is possible. Locally much harder but and inch or two is possible if the more southerly path works out. Windy and maybe more so than today which has been quite the wind storm for early January.

Good evening Tim! Glad to see your internet has returned so you can post! 18Z GE$FS agrees with the OP run very nicely in terms of track with this system. Again... I am waiting to see which model camp caves to the other.