Absolute Vorticity

I don't have any changes really to my forecast for this system. The strong low should track NW of us. I still think we could start out as a brief wintry mix then quickly flip over to rain. Strong winds to 40 mph likely behind the low on Wed. Tues is a wet and windy day. Could see rainfall amounts up to 1" with this system so a much needed soaker for the drought. We could even see a t-storm but I don't think that we will see severe wx at this time. Rain will change to snow Tues night into the day on Wed. Depending on track, light accum under 1" is passible.

It's rough loving snow in this city.

12Z GFS has the low tracking just south of St. Louis, to the southern tip of Lake Michigan and into the Thumb. You know my call for this one for us locally. Rain moves in Mon night and Tues, heavy at times with breezy conditions. Then very windy on Wed with back side snow showers. Still thinking amounts of an inch are possible.

12Z CMC is further SE tracking the low right over us and right up I-71 towards Cleveland. End result is still pretty much the same. The GEFS today is in very good agreement with the operational GFS.

12Z UKIE low track is right in between the GFS and CMC models.

12Z Euro starts us out as a brief mix then quickly goes over to rain. A few hours of mix then rain for I-70 folks. Low track is from SE AR to just SE of St. Louis thru Central ILL then on to the S. Tip of Lake Michigan. We change from rain to a wintry mix after midnight Tues night. Then eventually snow for Wed morning on the backside as the low continues deepening into Lake Huron. A lot of guidance is agreeing on this low track. I think my forecast looks good that I have laid out in previous posts.

12Z EPS has the low track in a similar spot as the above. Most models IMO are coming into good agreement for the La Bomba system.

This system is getting into the NAM's range now and the 18Z run makes no sense. It is weaker then the other models but yet more NW with the low track then the other models. Whatever... I am tossing this run into the trash can.

18Z GFS concurs with the majority of the other models. GFS has been the most snowiest model as well in terms of backside snow shower activity.

18Z GEFS might be a hair S of the Op but not by much.

Getting the first blizzard warnings as southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico will be the first in line.

The only change I will make to the forecast is to take out the mixed precip at the onset and go with all rain for Cincy until we get behind the front of course. Still expecting a change to snow late Tues night and into the day on Wed. I still think an inch is doable on the backside of this system. I will leave the mixed precip into the forecast at the event onset for the I-70 Crew. No changes in my forecast for our northern locations.

Update from my FB page...

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:41 am Update from my FB page...

I have not seen any of your forecast on FB for over a week. Interesting. I can't even find the page.

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:05 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:41 am Update from my FB page...

I have not seen any of your forecast on FB for over a week. Interesting. I can't even find the page.

I had some issues with FB and their support was nonexistent so I just started over fresh. My personal profile is Forecaster Trevor Cole and my weather page is The Cincinnati Weather Report. The link to the page is also in my signature on here.

Shoot me a friend request!

Nice write up

Blizzard and yes always seems maybe one item that defines a blizzard is not met but this is going to be a nasty storm. Snow totals may not be the greatest ever but that is not the defining part of this storm. The wind and its possible to see winds over Hurricane Status. You have a lot of wide open space in the plains and my guess many roads will be shut down for a few days.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:20 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:05 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:41 am Update from my FB page...

I have not seen any of your forecast on FB for over a week. Interesting. I can't even find the page.

I had some issues with FB and their support was nonexistent so I just started over fresh. My personal profile is Forecaster Trevor Cole and my weather page is The Cincinnati Weather Report. The link to the page is also in my signature on here.

Shoot me a friend request!

Well, that explains why I have not seen anything lately.

No changes to my forecast for La Bomba. A mix to rain then back to snow for I-70. All rain for us to snow down here. Timing is Mon night into Tues for the heavy rain part with snow showers for all on the backside later Tues night into the day on Wed. Still rolling with an inch of snow on the backside. I suppose 1-2" for Northern posters is possible.

this is a major rainstorm for me. we are progged for 2-4" of wind driven flooding rains Tuesday night

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:32 am this is a major rainstorm for me. we are progged for 2-4" of wind driven flooding rains Tuesday night

Yeah... this is going to be a major headache for folks in the Northeast. It's never a good situation when you get a lot of rain on top of a melting snow pack. I don't envy you guys whatsoever. Stay safe Charles!

My biggest concern for the Ohio Valley with this system isn't so much the heavy rain and back side snow... it is the wind! Hopefully we do not see a lot of tree damage and power outages. I think you could say the same thing with regards to the 12-13th system too, regardless of what precip types we get.

977MB is pretty impressive on an Ensemble Mean. That is the avg from all of the GEFS members for La Bomba. Dang...

La Bomba Bombed.

12Z Euro has it at 975 MB as does the UKIE.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:34 am 977MB is pretty impressive on an Ensemble Mean. That is the avg from all of the GEFS members for La Bomba. Dang...

I can’t remember but didn’t I bring this up almost two weeks ago? Impressive modeling that far in advance!