January 2024 Weather Discussion

[dce]

Some January (CVG) snow stats. One goes from 1975-1999, another 2000 to present and the last combines all those years back to 1975(top 25). (Dates at bottom of graph) That stretch from 1976-1982 is once in a lifetime




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Great stats! Aside from 2019, hopefully the stretch from 2016-2023 is one in a lifetime as well!

[Trevor]

The low didn't bomb out on the GFS like it did on the last run. Still a strong storm but it doesn't hit bombogenesis criteria on the 12z run.

That system will have impacts not only on how much cold air comes down behind it, but the initial follow up wave for the 12-13th I talked about this morning.

I have the follow up system marked down as one to watch on my extended forecast as well.

[tron777]

Euro is coming in now and barring some miracle, we can probably scratch 1-3 / 1-4 off the list. It also continues to be very suppressed with the 6-7th as well. The northern energy dies out much, much faster.

[tpweather]

Everything looks good. Parts of Alaska will have a winter storm warning for Jan2-5th along the north shore with blizzard conditions and wind chill of -50 or lower. The cold air in western Siberia is already in Alaska and moving eastward. This type of cold will get into western and finally central Canada over the next 7-10 days and this is the cold that will change the pattern over the lower 48. Getting that cold around the poles at first is important with a SSW and though it takes time to reach lower latitudes we are already seeing at the surface in the polar regions. This was a big concern of mine for nearly a month of how the arctic regions were not getting cold though you had spokes in certain lower latitudes we never had the real cold air you expect around the poles. This cold could be long standing as well especially if we can get a good snow cover to the northwest which I believe their are chances for that over the next 10 days.

[tron777]

Everything looks good. Parts of Alaska will have a winter storm warning for Jan2-5th along the north shore with blizzard conditions and wind chill of -50 or lower. The cold air in western Siberia is already in Alaska and moving eastward. This type of cold will get into western and finally central Canada over the next 7-10 days and this is the cold that will change the pattern over the lower 48. Getting that cold around the poles at first is important with a SSW and though it takes time to reach lower latitudes we are already seeing at the surface in the polar regions. This was a big concern of mine for nearly a month of how the arctic regions were not getting cold though you had spokes in certain lower latitudes we never had the real cold air you expect around the poles. This cold could be long standing as well especially if we can get a good snow cover to the northwest which I believe their are chances for that over the next 10 days.

The big system around the 9-11th should certainly lay a big area of snow cover down to our NW as currently modeled. The cold air coming in behind it should have a good kick to it for future systems to work with. That's the game plan anyway at this time. The current picture is terrible and we need all the help we can get.

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[tpweather]

Les we should also start to see some nice ridging over the west by the bigger change which will help us get a cross-polar flow by mid-month. One thing to see things on a model run but seeing it at the surface tells me the change is on. Going to be a fun last 15-20 days of the month in terms of winter storms and rather cold

[tron777]

Les we should also start to see some nice ridging over the west by the bigger change which will help us get a cross-polar flow by mid-month. One thing to see things on a model run but seeing it at the surface tells me the change is on. Going to be a fun last 15-20 days of the month in terms of winter storms and rather cold

If all goes according to plan Tim, I feel the same way. The changes have already been in motion. We'll see how the big storm around the 10th goes and that should bring about said change.

[dce]

Everything looks good. Parts of Alaska will have a winter storm warning for Jan2-5th along the north shore with blizzard conditions and wind chill of -50 or lower. The cold air in western Siberia is already in Alaska and moving eastward. This type of cold will get into western and finally central Canada over the next 7-10 days and this is the cold that will change the pattern over the lower 48. Getting that cold around the poles at first is important with a SSW and though it takes time to reach lower latitudes we are already seeing at the surface in the polar regions. This was a big concern of mine for nearly a month of how the arctic regions were not getting cold though you had spokes in certain lower latitudes we never had the real cold air you expect around the poles. This cold could be long standing as well especially if we can get a good snow cover to the northwest which I believe their are chances for that over the next 10 days.

From what I am reading, a sudden stratospheric warning event looks to be off the table. It looks more like the polar vortex is going to stretch and not actually split. Everything looked good for a split up until about three days ago and the models have now backed off a split. We will, however, take what we can get. A weakened polar vortex is much better than a strong one.

[tron777]

Everything looks good. Parts of Alaska will have a winter storm warning for Jan2-5th along the north shore with blizzard conditions and wind chill of -50 or lower. The cold air in western Siberia is already in Alaska and moving eastward. This type of cold will get into western and finally central Canada over the next 7-10 days and this is the cold that will change the pattern over the lower 48. Getting that cold around the poles at first is important with a SSW and though it takes time to reach lower latitudes we are already seeing at the surface in the polar regions. This was a big concern of mine for nearly a month of how the arctic regions were not getting cold though you had spokes in certain lower latitudes we never had the real cold air you expect around the poles. This cold could be long standing as well especially if we can get a good snow cover to the northwest which I believe their are chances for that over the next 10 days.

From what I am reading, a sudden stratospheric warning event looks to be off the table. It looks more like the polar vortex is going to stretch and not actually split. Everything looked good for a split up until about three days ago and the models have now backed off a split. We will, however, take what we can get. A weakened polar vortex is much better than a strong one.

I have read the same. A major SSW event does not look very likely, however, the PV is still going to remain weak which is good. Also, once this warming event is done, models are projecting another one to begin after that. In short, I expect the PV to remain weak for the entire month of January. We can get bouts of cold air with a stretched out PV. It should also make suppression of storm systems less likely to occur as well.

[tpweather]

We will see about the SSW and if the models were wrong 3 days ago no doubt they can be wrong 3 days from today. Models are horrible with these and again I watch what is happening on earth which can give you details of what may be happening 20 miles in the sky. Really the first time its been strong was during the last week as it has been weak most of the fall and early winter. See me in a week and love to know what the models are showing

[tron777]

12Z EPS in the extended range, looking very cold!

EPS.png

[tpweather]

Sent out neighborhood weather update for late New Year's Eve and early New Year Day. Snow showers with a system to the north could provide some quick snow showers or even some frz/drizzle. The system is picking up a tad of cold air and with plenty of folks on the road just wanted the neighbors to be updated as the NWS locally is not talking about that chance.

[tron777]

Sent out neighborhood weather update for late New Year's Eve and early New Year Day. Snow showers with a system to the north could provide some quick snow showers or even some frz/drizzle. The system is picking up a tad of cold air and with plenty of folks on the road just wanted the neighbors to be updated as the NWS locally is not talking about that chance.

I don't think it'll be a big deal either to be honest. A few rain / snow showers and that's about it. Much like what we have been seeing as of late.

[dce]

We will see about the SSW and if the models were wrong 3 days ago no doubt they can be wrong 3 days from today. Models are horrible with these and again I watch what is happening on earth which can give you details of what may be happening 20 miles in the sky. Really the first time its been strong was during the last week as it has been weak most of the fall and early winter. See me in a week and love to know what the models are showing

We will indeed see. Still time for models to flip back to a split. The models have been good at predicting this significant weakening of the polar vortex. Just like with individual storm systems in the medium and long range with the operational models, it's impossible for them to get the specifics of particular storm systems that far out. It's the same when it comes to the polar vortex. They knew something was up, but they just aren't advanced enough yet to get very specific regarding a split or a stretch.

[tpweather]

We will see about the SSW and if the models were wrong 3 days ago no doubt they can be wrong 3 days from today. Models are horrible with these and again I watch what is happening on earth which can give you details of what may be happening 20 miles in the sky. Really the first time its been strong was during the last week as it has been weak most of the fall and early winter. See me in a week and love to know what the models are showing

We will indeed see. Still time for models to flip back to a split. The models have been good at predicting this significant weakening of the polar vortex. Just like with individual storm systems in the medium and long range with the operational models, it's impossible for them to get the specifics of particular storm systems that far out. It's the same when it comes to the polar vortex. They knew something was up, but they just aren't advanced enough yet to get very specific regarding a split or a stretch.

Great Post Doug. When I see a model show something especially in the longer term I start looking for signs on the ground. Sometimes these signs never show up and you know that longer term model output is not correct. When you start seeing signs and the weather on earth starts to react the way you believe it should then you pay more attention to that output. Concerning the PV and it was weak for much of the past 2 months or so and we saw the PV able to thrown those spokes or stretching out spokes of cold weather to Europe and Asia. During the past 7-10 days a nice strengthening of the PV which you would say is bad but in this case no because the weather in the polar regions are getting back to a more normal cold but we are seeing other signs like the ridging in Greenland to start out with and then if we get the ridging in the west up towards Alaska the PV will react.

[tpweather]

Nice to see some cold temps in Alaska where some temps in the central part of the state are -30 and colder. Expecting the state to start warming up early next week but this will also cause friction in the north and that is why an extended period of blizzard conditions with -50 or below wind chills.

[tpweather]

The system around the 9th is a mess and models are having a hard time getting the stronger energy and also where the weak area is for a storm to move. This is one where models are showing something rather big and each run that has not changed. My guess is this will be a big storm but exactly how this plays out is up in the air. The MJO is still somewhat of a mess and do we continue to head towards phase 3 and 4 or do we head back to the COD. I believe phase 3 may happen but still counting on this heading back to the COD.

[tron777]

The system around the 9th is a mess and models are having a hard time getting the stronger energy and also where the weak area is for a storm to move. This is one where models are showing something rather big and each run that has not changed. My guess is this will be a big storm but exactly how this plays out is up in the air. The MJO is still somewhat of a mess and do we continue to head towards phase 3 and 4 or do we head back to the COD. I believe phase 3 may happen but still counting on this heading back to the COD.

I am definitely hoping for a Phase 3 then back into the COD. MJO models are literally all over the place in that regard. Still in Phase 1 as of 12/29 per the Aussies.

[dce]

12Z EPS in the extended range, looking very cold!


EPS.png

That has a brutally cold look. Cross polar flow with the coldest air, relative to normal, on our side of the globe. That's the kind of cold that could be brought in by Trevor's bomb cyclone.

[Trevor]

00z GFS takes my bomb down to 971 INVOF Chicago. Dang!

[Trevor]

Massive dump of frigid air behind it.

[Trevor]

The initial bomb actually doesn't knock us down that much. It's the second system right behind it that does it.

[Trevor]

Man the Canadian sure does carve out a massive trough!

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Before we even get to the above, don't fall asleep on next weekend. If the northern low can fall apart fast enough, we have a shot at some snow from the southern wave. 6Z GFS was close! CMC was just a weak piece of junk overall, while the Euro was pretty close too. GEFS was all over the place as you would expect this far out.

Then we get the bomb cyclone and the Euro was in pretty good agreement with the GFS actually. The pattern after that is loaded with storminess so hopefully we can get one of them to track correctly for us snow weenies!

[tron777]

Folks... looking at the longer term, all ensemble models look great post 1/10. We already know about the -AO and -NAO but the N Pacific ridge is more poleward on the overnight runs so we get the -EPO back too! That is your cold air feeder into the CONUS. We do have a -PNA but in this case that is not a bad thing. That keeps the storm train coming with an active STJ underneath all of the blocking. If the PNA was positive, then this would turn into a cold and dry pattern. Should this look hold, we should have an active and exciting January ahead of us.