Absolute Vorticity

48 here today. Currently down to 39.

Thanks to John Gumm at Local12... November stats at CVG:

Congratulations 1st time World Series Champs Texas Rangers!!

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 26 early Thurs morning.

Good morning! Mid to upper 20s for most folks out there this morning with a hard freeze in some areas too. A nice day on tap with temps in the lower 50s with plenty of sunshine expected. Upper 50s, maybe 60 for tomorrow then in the 60s for this weekend. Not a bad weekend either. A small shower chance with a warm front on Sat (mainly north) but otherwise no other problems are expected.

We turn more active next week with shower chances moving in late on Monday. The activity for the first half of the week looks light at this time. Temps will drop behind the front into the 40s and 50s for highs as we get towards the end of next week.

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged for around 48 today.

28 officially at CVG this morning. 26 here. 25 from the other morning though has been my coldest low of the fall season.

25 was my low..
Heavy frost

Just took a look at the JMA for November. My interpretation is near to above normal precipitation for the last 3 weeks of month and near to above average for temps with what looks like to me the pac jet retracts mid month giving the STJ more influence for the latter half

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 9:52 am Just took a look at the JMA for November. My interpretation is near to above normal precipitation for the last 3 weeks of month and near to above average for temps with what looks like to me the pac jet retracts mid month giving the STJ more influence for the latter half

That's pretty much what we've been expecting with the milder pattern kicking in around mid month. I am expecting that to continue thru Thanksgiving then a change to colder conditions again late this month into early December.

The drought situation has vastly improved over our local area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:38 am The drought situation has vastly improved over our local area.


Drought.PNG

If we can just reach our normals this month and next , we should be good to go .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:38 am The drought situation has vastly improved over our local area.


Drought.PNG

If we can just reach our normals this month and next , we should be good to go .

I don't think that will be an issue especially if the STJ kicks in around mid November as we are expecting it too.

12Z GFS shows the front dropping in on Tues of next week, Election Day with a thin band of light showers. The front stalls along the river then goes back north as a warm front on Wed with a low riding along the front. Light rain for us down here, a better shot for light to moderate rains for the I-70 Crew. A final wave for Friday as the front pushes back south then we are dry for a while on this model run. A brief cool shot behind the front, then turning mild.

12Z CMC is a bit slower bringing the front thru the area on Wed with some light rain then we are cool and dry with a warming trend towards the end of the run.

12Z Euro has the front dropping in Mon night into Tues morning with a small band of light rain. Then the next low comes into the i-70 corridor by Wed late afternoon and evening with a few showers maybe a rumble of thunder for folks along and N of the river getting into the Cincy area overnight Wed. Then we get colder behind the front. Euro keeps us much colder then the other global models and even drops in an ULLL to bring a rain or snow shower to the area. We finally warm up at the end of the run.

So all in all... expect a few periods of light rain next week, nothing major at this time. Timing is till being worked out since we're quite a ways off still.

BG was late with his SnowTalk! blog today. This is only a couple of hours old:

Good Afternoon and a little windy outside but the sun makes it feel nice. Saw Brian's video and agree with about November and we are already starting to see the PV get rather strong over north and northwest Canada which usually means more of a mild period and I believe that is what will be the case for most of the month. Towards the end of the month and early December we start looking towards the north to see if the PV has dislodged and again usually a couple weeks before to see if that is happening.

During the milder November and my thoughts before was a busy period in terms of systems which I thought would bring us several rounds of rainfall through about the 20th. Models are really in an El Nino type pattern with systems to the south of us and the northern jet well north. When this happens during most El Ninos' there is an area just north of the stormier weather in the south that becomes rather dry. We average a little over 3 inches for the month so if this pattern takes shape we may be in for another dry month. Going to keep an eye on this and yes I believe severe weather has a decent shot in November but will it make it this far north and at the moment models are not showing this at all.

Hopefully we can get the colder air and the STJ to come together in December and I thought this would be a nice start to winter but Brian is not sold on that and he is no doubt one of the best around. Makes me nervous that the ongoing pattern for it seems the past decade or so is we have a second half winter. We will see but I have notice the PV getting strong near the north pole and the stronger that is usually how warm or at least how long the warm air will invade the OV.

Great post Tim! Our thoughts are matching perfectly for a mild period ahead potentially turning colder late this month into early December. For precip, this is where we may differ just a bit. My thoughts are that we turn wetter after mid month thanks to the STJ. If the storm track is far enough north (which is what I am betting on) then we'll get out of the drought completely and be just fine. If the storm track remains further to the south, then your above post would be absolutely correct in terms of precip. So as you said, it is something we certainly need to watch.

Concerning the PV, we've talked about it some in our El Nino / Winter thoughts thread and the EPS members continue to show the PV weakening by mid December. Over 80% of the EPS members are showing this which is a very strong signal from this distance. The EPS is also banking on a major SSW occurring as well. It is VERY RARE to have an SSW occur in December. If one is going to occur, you typically see it later in the winter and not this early. It has happened before though but it's rare. The last time was 1997 if my memory is correct. This is also something we need to keep an eye on for December (especially second half of the month) for cold prospects. If the SSW occurs later in December then you wouldn't see the impacts until January of 2024 and thus December would turn out to be a mild month. In short, we have a lot of interesting things to keep our eyes on whether our weather is active or not.

Hey Les and another great post. I believe 1997 was a very strong El Nino and though this was is not there yet lets see what happens. If the El Nino gets out of hand and becomes very strong my winter forecast is toast. Seems like when you have a very strong El Nino you get that one nice storm and then its warmth. I have hope for the PV to lets say come apart in early December. I always watch around the world and have notice over the past few days that the PV was getting strong fast and not sure if its any faster than normal but the models are showing to be very strong. Sometimes when things happen so fast they tend to be just as fast on the other side. We will no more about that hopefully during Thanksgiving week.

CVG reached 53 and both DAY / CMH 52 today.

Good morning all! 35 at CVG 33 IMBY. We should drop another degree or two then call it a day. Our warming trend begins today. A small shower chance Sat. Then late Mon thru most of next week, we get daily shower chances. Nothing looks particularly heavy and it won't rain all the time. Right now, it looks like a Mon night into Tues morning kind of deal, then Tues night into Wed. Wed and Thurs looks to be the highest chances for the region.

For temps... U50s today, 60s this weekend, U60s Monday, low to mid 60s Tues and Wed then we drop into the 50s later next week.

33 officially at CVG this morning. Since we have the next week or so covered with the forecast, looking ahead... an overall milder pattern continues to show up on the Ensemble guidance with troughing in the West and ridging over the East. This pattern transitions to a more typical El Nino look with ridging across the Northern tier of States and S Canada and lower heights across the south. This implies that the STJ should be kicking in by then. If the current fantasy range guidance is correct, that would put us to about the 3rd week of November.

Good Morning Les and we are almost on the same page. I believe you are somewhat on the wetter side over the next 2 weeks but everything else seems we are in agreement. We need the cold build up in northern and central Canada over the next few weeks and then we need to see what happens. Yes getting the PV to weaken or split and head this way is the best way to get cold air but yes you can get cold air with a stronger storm in southern Canada to grab some cold air and head this way. Though without the PV most cold spells are short in nature.

Still believe the GOM is loaded and once the STJ really gets going expect systems from Texas to the Carolina's to be in full force. Still believe that is still a few weeks away and one reason I believe we are have some showers here and there but nothing strong or major cold front until then.

I still believe late Nov or early Dec we get off to a decent start to met winter but will it be one that is long lasting or just a 3-5 day period where it gets cold and we get some snow. Usually when the El Nino gets going a major storm seems to be the key and will that happen late Nov and early Dec and we just wait and see.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 7:23 am Good morning all! 35 at CVG 33 IMBY. We should drop another degree or two then call it a day. Our warming trend begins today. A small shower chance Sat. Then late Mon thru most of next week, we get daily shower chances. Nothing looks particularly heavy and it won't rain all the time. Right now, it looks like a Mon night into Tues morning kind of deal, then Tues night into Wed. Wed and Thurs looks to be the highest chances for the region.

For temps... U50s today, 60s this weekend, U60s Monday, low to mid 60s Tues and Wed then we drop into the 50s later next week.

Looks good to me Les, keeping light Amounts for the first half of next week due to reasons posted earlier


Off topic a bit, but I was reminded this morning why I usually leave earlier than I did, I got behind a school bus that will wait no matter how long for little Him or little Her to come moseying out the front door at nearly every stop. Back in the day of course this would never happen, you were waiting at the end of the driveway at least 5 minutes ahead of the bus , cause if you weren’t there , they bus driver didn’t even slow down and if you missed the bus there were consequences from Mr. or Mrs. B’goney

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 7:23 am Good morning all! 35 at CVG 33 IMBY. We should drop another degree or two then call it a day. Our warming trend begins today. A small shower chance Sat. Then late Mon thru most of next week, we get daily shower chances. Nothing looks particularly heavy and it won't rain all the time. Right now, it looks like a Mon night into Tues morning kind of deal, then Tues night into Wed. Wed and Thurs looks to be the highest chances for the region.

For temps... U50s today, 60s this weekend, U60s Monday, low to mid 60s Tues and Wed then we drop into the 50s later next week.

Looks good to me Les, keeping light Amounts for the first half of next week due to reasons posted earlier


Off topic a bit, but I was reminded this morning why I usually leave earlier than I did, I got behind a school bus that will wait no matter how long for little Him or little Her to come moseying out the front door at nearly every stop. Back in the day of course this would never happen, you were waiting at the end of the driveway at least 5 minutes ahead of the bus , cause if you weren’t there , they bus driver didn’t even slow down and if you missed the bus there were consequences from Mr. or Mrs. B’goney

Thank you Sir! And yes... I have toned back my wording on the rainfall for next week as well. Concerning the school bus... no doubt! We had to walk to the top of the hill on our street to catch the bus and as you said, if you weren't there you missed out on a ride to school. The school bus these days waits as you said and they also come down the hill now where they never did when I was in school. Kids have it so easy these days. Gosh, I sound like an old man here but it's the truth!

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:36 am Good Morning Les and we are almost on the same page. I believe you are somewhat on the wetter side over the next 2 weeks but everything else seems we are in agreement. We need the cold build up in northern and central Canada over the next few weeks and then we need to see what happens. Yes getting the PV to weaken or split and head this way is the best way to get cold air but yes you can get cold air with a stronger storm in southern Canada to grab some cold air and head this way. Though without the PV most cold spells are short in nature.

Still believe the GOM is loaded and once the STJ really gets going expect systems from Texas to the Carolina's to be in full force. Still believe that is still a few weeks away and one reason I believe we are have some showers here and there but nothing strong or major cold front until then.

I still believe late Nov or early Dec we get off to a decent start to met winter but will it be one that is long lasting or just a 3-5 day period where it gets cold and we get some snow. Usually when the El Nino gets going a major storm seems to be the key and will that happen late Nov and early Dec and we just wait and see.

Hey Tim, good morning! I am ramping up my rainfall talk after mid month, the 3rd week of November. Until then, as Bgoney has correctly mentioned, we are in a zonal flow pattern with some troughing over the Pacific NW and ridging for us. That pattern of mild with light rain type systems should continue thru mid month. Then, I am expecting the STJ to kick in Week 3. If I understand your post correctly, I am probably a week earlier then you. You expect it to kick in the week of Thanksgiving? I hope I did not misunderstand so please correct me if I did.

Looks like DT is back with This Week in Weather: