August 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and a busier period for early August. Maybe 88 today but already the dew points are rising and enough cloud cover that I see very little chance at 90. Mowed the grass but was not too high but starting to see a few lighter tan spots so hopefully some nice rain in the next 7 days or so. August is really the start of the dry season around here and my guess the average rainfall is around 3 inches but that means some years you get 1 and some year 5 inches. I believe we have a chance this evening and overnight for some rainfall. Will watch the dew points today and see if we can break the 70 degree mark. The higher the dew the higher chance for some rainfall.

The biggest weather news imo is along the arctic coast in Alaska where they expect some 70's and maybe 80's.. Again that is inland but even along the coast above 60 is quite toasty for them. What I did find interesting is the record high for Barrow was 69 back in 1977. They should not get that high but similar years maybe in terms of weather. I talk a lot about the mid-70's winters but the summer or 1977 especially August was such a strange month and it was sort of murky and not hot but sort of hard to describe but as we get later into the summer the sun angle starts to go down so with a month of more rain you can have days where its cloudy all day which is usually not the case in August.

Back to the weather around here and models are having problems in pinpointing rain in our area so I sort of ignore them which is not the first time lol. I just happen to like the set up later today and overnight for most of us. Another higher chance I believe is Monday afternoon. See no 90's for the next 7-10 days and sure always a chance one sneaks in but the past few days when conditions were really good for us to reach 90 and 88 was the highest we could reach.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... Fairbanks even hit 90 once back in July and it's been a long time since that mark has been achieved. A lot of 80s as well in the interior so that tells you where the ridging has been and thus, why the trough over the Eastern US. We just need to get better timing as IMO that has been our biggest problem. Rainfall is always in a weakening stage instead of a strengthening one.

[tpweather]

Hey Tim... Fairbanks even hit 90 once back in July and it's been a long time since that mark has been achieved. A lot of 80s as well in the interior so that tells you where the ridging has been and thus, why the trough over the Eastern US. We just need to get better timing as IMO that has been our biggest problem. Rainfall is always in a weakening stage instead of a strengthening one.

I saw that you had mentioned Fairbanks and yes 90 is not easy but at least the humidity is not bad lol. For later this evening the only reason I am a little higher on rain chances is we sort of have a warm front trying to push this way and with some of the outflow boundaries in Indiana today I believe once they develop it will be further east than we have seen lately. Tell you truth even a small chance of severe weather and maybe a tornado or two which is unusual for August. No large outbreak and most of the time the only reason you see a tornado around here in August is with a tropical system that has made it nearby and that of course is rare as well.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... Fairbanks even hit 90 once back in July and it's been a long time since that mark has been achieved. A lot of 80s as well in the interior so that tells you where the ridging has been and thus, why the trough over the Eastern US. We just need to get better timing as IMO that has been our biggest problem. Rainfall is always in a weakening stage instead of a strengthening one.

I saw that you had mentioned Fairbanks and yes 90 is not easy but at least the humidity is not bad lol. For later this evening the only reason I am a little higher on rain chances is we sort of have a warm front trying to push this way and with some of the outflow boundaries in Indiana today I believe once they develop it will be further east than we have seen lately. Tell you truth even a small chance of severe weather and maybe a tornado or two which is unusual for August. No large outbreak and most of the time the only reason you see a tornado around here in August is with a tropical system that has made it nearby and that of course is rare as well.

We do have a warm front headed in here that is correct Tim. Hopefully guidance is wrong and we can get a little better timing . I'd like to see the line form sooner and head our way faster. We'd have a little more fuel for the storms to work with and thus, they would hold together for a longer period of time to bring beneficial rains to the area. That is what we'll need to see if that happens or not.

The boys had this to say about an hour ago and it's not good for those needing the rain.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Just some minor changes this morning to the forecast. Will be
waiting for more CAMs and model data, along with an update from
SPC in the early afternoon before making any whole sale changes
to messaging. Mid level MCV over Illinois is still forecast to
move east into our area, while additional mid level energy
approaches from the west late. We should get through the
afternoon mainly dry with only a few WAA induced showers
possible across the far west. Latest HRRR suggests that
appreciable SBCAPE may not arrive in our far west into later in
the evening or toward midnight. By then, values will be
decreasing. Also, HRRR indicates that low level forcing may be
weaker than previously shown, so PoPs may not be as high in the
west this evening into early morning Sunday. Will wait to
compare with other CAMs. Otherwise, the chances for severe were
lowered and shifted west by SPC due to the slow-moving nature of
the system to our west.

[tpweather]

Les I hope the models are wrong on this occasion. What I have noticed over the past 4-6 weeks is mid-day and mid-night model runs tend to go back and forth and what they are seeing. There is no doubt besides the few days we had the heat and humidity the pattern has been the same. Trend is your friend and pattern over the last several years have been harder to break imo.

[tron777]

Les I hope the models are wrong on this occasion. What I have noticed over the past 4-6 weeks is mid-day and mid-night model runs tend to go back and forth and what they are seeing. There is no doubt besides the few days we had the heat and humidity the pattern has been the same. Trend is your friend and pattern over the last several years have been harder to break imo.

100% agree... When you get a pattern that settles in and stays. We have been seeing blocking in the NAO domain over the last couple of years. We've had a persistent -PNA so hopefully the persistent +PNA will stick around since we've got an El Nino now and a -QBO developing. I like what I am seeing in the extreme long term.

[tpweather]

Dew point up to 70 at 1pm. This is a good imo for better chances of showers and thundershowers later today. This will also keep temp down as well so maybe 86 or 87 looks like the high today.

[tron777]

Dew point up to 70 at 1pm. This is a good imo for better chances of showers and thundershowers later today. This will also keep temp down as well so maybe 86 or 87 looks like the high today.

Agreed on the temps. Too much clouds now to get 89 or 90. I'm backing off to the mid 80s for tomorrow as well.

[tron777]

84 so far at CVG and that maybe it since we've dropped back to 81 at 2pm.

[tpweather]

84 so far at CVG and that maybe it since we've dropped back to 81 at 2pm.

Les there is some sun out to the west but that is even quite messy. We may get a few degrees if and that is a big if the sun comes through between 4-6. Either way getting to the upper 80's will not happen.

[tron777]

Totally agree Tim.... mid 80s is it for today. MD is out for a 40% chance of a watch being issued potentially out ahead of that MCV over ILL. Eastern ILL into Central IN is the target zone this afternoon to watch for storm development.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1844.html

[tron777]

12Z Euro sure got frisky all of a sudden. This is for CVG thru Tues morning. I doubt this is correct but it would be awesome if it was.

Code: Select all

SUN 00Z 06-AUG  28.9    19.8    1011      49      77    0.01     586     577    
SUN 06Z 06-AUG  22.0    18.4    1012      96      72    0.38     586     576    
SUN 12Z 06-AUG  22.8    18.0    1011      97      55    0.12     585     576    
SUN 18Z 06-AUG  29.8    17.1    1009      55      43    0.01     585     577    
MON 00Z 07-AUG  27.8    17.7    1009      61      37    0.00     584     577    
MON 06Z 07-AUG  22.4    19.5    1009      87      62    0.00     583     575    
MON 12Z 07-AUG  20.8    18.8    1007      98      58    0.22     580     574    
MON 18Z 07-AUG  26.8    15.9    1005      68      67    0.04     578     573    
TUE 00Z 08-AUG  21.5    15.9    1006      94      91    1.06     577     572    
TUE 06Z 08-AUG  20.2    14.5    1005      97      87    0.08     575     571    
TUE 12Z 08-AUG  19.2    13.4    1010      95      86    0.34     576     568   

[tpweather]

Totally agree Tim.... mid 80s is it for today. MD is out for a 40% chance of a watch being issued potentially out ahead of that MCV over ILL. Eastern ILL into Central IN is the target zone this afternoon to watch for storm development.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1844.html

Les a little further east would be perfect but I will take this at the moment.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro sure got frisky all of a sudden. This is for CVG thru Tues morning. I doubt this is correct but it would be awesome if it was.

Code: Select all

SUN 00Z 06-AUG  28.9    19.8    1011      49      77    0.01     586     577    
SUN 06Z 06-AUG  22.0    18.4    1012      96      72    0.38     586     576    
SUN 12Z 06-AUG  22.8    18.0    1011      97      55    0.12     585     576    
SUN 18Z 06-AUG  29.8    17.1    1009      55      43    0.01     585     577    
MON 00Z 07-AUG  27.8    17.7    1009      61      37    0.00     584     577    
MON 06Z 07-AUG  22.4    19.5    1009      87      62    0.00     583     575    
MON 12Z 07-AUG  20.8    18.8    1007      98      58    0.22     580     574    
MON 18Z 07-AUG  26.8    15.9    1005      68      67    0.04     578     573    
TUE 00Z 08-AUG  21.5    15.9    1006      94      91    1.06     577     572    
TUE 06Z 08-AUG  20.2    14.5    1005      97      87    0.08     575     571    
TUE 12Z 08-AUG  19.2    13.4    1010      95      86    0.34     576     568   

I have two periods I thought had a better shot of some decent rains and that is late this evening and overnight and also later Monday. So not going to argue with the Euro but they keep it raining overnight Monday as well which I did not see.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 77 with a DP of 61 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Totally agree Tim.... mid 80s is it for today. MD is out for a 40% chance of a watch being issued potentially out ahead of that MCV over ILL. Eastern ILL into Central IN is the target zone this afternoon to watch for storm development.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1844.html

Les a little further east would be perfect but I will take this at the moment.

We could use a few hours of sun to help with the instability as you mentioned Tim. It is definitely messing looking for sure. Not sure how much we'll see. We have some CAPE in that 1000-1500 J/KG range. I'd like 2000 or 2500 better. We have a pocket of 30 knot bulk shear over IN and OH (Would like 40 knots better). In short, it's very marginal right now in terms of strong to severe storms for us. I'm just hoping for some rain honestly. I don't really care if it's severe or not.

[tron777]

12Z Euro sure got frisky all of a sudden. This is for CVG thru Tues morning. I doubt this is correct but it would be awesome if it was.

Code: Select all

SUN 00Z 06-AUG  28.9    19.8    1011      49      77    0.01     586     577    
SUN 06Z 06-AUG  22.0    18.4    1012      96      72    0.38     586     576    
SUN 12Z 06-AUG  22.8    18.0    1011      97      55    0.12     585     576    
SUN 18Z 06-AUG  29.8    17.1    1009      55      43    0.01     585     577    
MON 00Z 07-AUG  27.8    17.7    1009      61      37    0.00     584     577    
MON 06Z 07-AUG  22.4    19.5    1009      87      62    0.00     583     575    
MON 12Z 07-AUG  20.8    18.8    1007      98      58    0.22     580     574    
MON 18Z 07-AUG  26.8    15.9    1005      68      67    0.04     578     573    
TUE 00Z 08-AUG  21.5    15.9    1006      94      91    1.06     577     572    
TUE 06Z 08-AUG  20.2    14.5    1005      97      87    0.08     575     571    
TUE 12Z 08-AUG  19.2    13.4    1010      95      86    0.34     576     568   

I have two periods I thought had a better shot of some decent rains and that is late this evening and overnight and also later Monday. So not going to argue with the Euro but they keep it raining overnight Monday as well which I did not see.

Same here. Euro has a batch of showers with the upper trough rotating thru the area on the backside of the low and cold front.

[tron777]

Currently 77 with a DP of 61 here in G'ville.

83 / 70 currently in my hood with cloudy skies.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 77 with a DP of 61 here in G'ville.

83 / 70 currently in my hood with cloudy skies.

Redlegs / Nats 4:10 game should be able to get in without any issues.

[tron777]

Currently 77 with a DP of 61 here in G'ville.

83 / 70 currently in my hood with cloudy skies.

Redlegs / Nats 4:10 game should be able to get in without any issues.

I agree.

[tron777]

The lastest thinking from the boys thru tonight.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure over central Illinois will move slowly
east/northeast to a position near north central Indiana by
Sunday morning. As this occurs, a warm front trailing southeast
from the low will lift northeast into our area. A complex
conglomerate of mid level energy (including a remnant MCV) will
provide some upper level lift, along with weak WAA, to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. There continues to be a
small severe weather threat window for our far western CWFA for
this evening. This will depend on convective development and
whether the convection can overlap some MLCAPE/favorable low
level shear to provide for rotating updrafts. Will continue to
mention the possibility of a strong/severe storm with damaging
winds and a possible brief tornado. The threat should wane
overnight as overall instability decreases. PWATS will increase
to over 2+ inches. However, with no real strong focus, the
threat for flooding should remain low. Lows tonight will range
from 65 to 70.

[tpweather]

The lastest thinking from the boys thru tonight.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure over central Illinois will move slowly
east/northeast to a position near north central Indiana by
Sunday morning. As this occurs, a warm front trailing southeast
from the low will lift northeast into our area. A complex
conglomerate of mid level energy (including a remnant MCV) will
provide some upper level lift, along with weak WAA, to bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. There continues to be a
small severe weather threat window for our far western CWFA for
this evening. This will depend on convective development and
whether the convection can overlap some MLCAPE/favorable low
level shear to provide for rotating updrafts. Will continue to
mention the possibility of a strong/severe storm with damaging
winds and a possible brief tornado. The threat should wane
overnight as overall instability decreases. PWATS will increase
to over 2+ inches. However, with no real strong focus, the
threat for flooding should remain low. Lows tonight will range
from 65 to 70.

They continue to cut back on the severe aspect and with the timing I agree. I am still rooting for at least a steady rain for several hours into early morning.

[tron777]

They continue to cut back on the severe aspect and with the timing I agree. I am still rooting for at least a steady rain for several hours into early morning.

That's the best case scenario Tim. Something better stop popping in the next hour or two. Right now there is nothing going on for us. Everything you currently see will remain well to our NW.

[tpweather]

They continue to cut back on the severe aspect and with the timing I agree. I am still rooting for at least a steady rain for several hours into early morning.

That's the best case scenario Tim. Something better stop popping in the next hour or two. Right now there is nothing going on for us. Everything you currently see will remain well to our NW.

I agree Les and starting to see some pop southwest of Terra Haute

[tron777]

They continue to cut back on the severe aspect and with the timing I agree. I am still rooting for at least a steady rain for several hours into early morning.

That's the best case scenario Tim. Something better stop popping in the next hour or two. Right now there is nothing going on for us. Everything you currently see will remain well to our NW.

I agree Les and starting to see some pop southwest of Terra Haute

It's like the little engine that could! We need to see more development on the tail. IMO this is our only shot at seeing some rain tonight.