Absolute Vorticity

If the 12Z HRRR and GFS are right, dew points drop tomorrow so more sun and less clouds = the 70s! Saturday may trend similarly if these new models are right with a drier atmospheric profile. Great news here!

Currently, I like daily rain chances Sunday thru at least Tues maybe even Wed of next week. Then probably more storminess for next weekend too. Watching Mother's Day closely and currently it looks stormy. Current pattern shows fronts coming in then stalling and eventually washing it as they bump into the ridge over the East. Plenty of time for timing to work itself out though.

12Z Euro has scattered action Sunday, with a very high chance Mon night into Tues of next week.

I hit 67 today! Taking tomorrow off to get stuff ready for the big 50th bash for my folks on Sat at my Brother's. Tomorrow looks great and Sat isn't half bad either. Sunday scattered to likely action in some places.

Good Morning and looks like we have turned the corner. 39 this morning but temps heading into the 70's today and Saturday with plenty of sun though later Saturday some high clouds may enter the picture. Rain chances go up on Sunday and continue through mid-week but temps will be more like early June. We can use the rain next week so hopefully most folks get in on the action.

Hopefully last 30s of the season until the fall. Dipped to 39 here this AM.

I stayed above 40 here, had 41 this morning. Gorgeous day ahead and tomorrow isn't bad either. Rain chances look good Sun - Tues of next week. Mainly 70s to L80s for highs the next 10 days.

69 currently IMBY on our way into the lower 70sd which is normal for May.

HAPPY 47TH BIRTHDAY LES!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy and thank you for all that you've done and continue to do for AV including your analyzing and forecasting!

Happy Cinco de Mayo!

I celebrated Cinco de Mayo a day early, yesterday, with an entree "Speedy Gonzales" which had a beef enchilada, soft beef taco, rice, tortilla chips, and salsa.

I miss those Looney Tunes childhood years!

Currently 64 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 70.

Stellar conditions for the Redlegs / White Sox games this evening and Sat evening.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY LES!!! Hope you have a wonderful bday and a great weekend with your parents.

Happy birthday Les!!! Hope you enjoyed a great day!!!

HAPPY BIG 50TH GOLDEN ANNIVERSARY TO LES AND HIS BRO LARRY'S PARENTS!!!!

Currently 68 here in G'ville.

Yesterday both CVG and DAY reached 73 and CMH 71.

Partly sunny and a high around 80 for today's running of the 149th Kentucky Derby.

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Side note: On the flip side its sad that this year's (pre) race has been marred by some racing horses having had to be euthanized due to certain circumstances and others disqualified.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
504 PM EDT Sat May 6 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-071100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
504 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times Sunday through Tuesday.
An isolated strong or severe storm may occur. Damaging winds and
large hail would be the primary threats. In addition, heavy rain may
result in localized flooding.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

$$

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Wasn’t quite expecting this type of deluge for cvgland this morning. Models did a terrible job from yesterday with this morning’s amounts locally

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 7:54 am Wasn’t quite expecting this type of deluge for cvgland this morning. Models did a terrible job from yesterday with this morning’s amounts locally

Good Morning Bgoney and you are correct models never quite got this mornings rainfall correct. When I see moisture build up like yesterday I am not sure what was missing in the model output. A good soaking and yes it was needed and the upcoming week we have several more chances for rain early in the week and later in the week and next weekend. First week of May almost in the books and no major heat waves in the USA. Saw some build up of heat in the southern plains but only lasted a few days. If this pattern continue we could get away without to much heat in May. Saying that I still believe the first part of summer is going to turn out hotter than normal so talking June and first half or so of July. I kept expecting big time flooding in the northern plains and upper mid-west and sure they had some flooding but my mistake was not understanding the difference between a winter that was milder than normal but near record snowfall in areas compared to a colder than normal winter where the ice is deep. Ice melt causes more problem than snow melt and I missed that completely.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 8:14 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 7:54 am Wasn’t quite expecting this type of deluge for cvgland this morning. Models did a terrible job from yesterday with this morning’s amounts locally

Good Morning Bgoney and you are correct models never quite got this mornings rainfall correct. When I see moisture build up like yesterday I am not sure what was missing in the model output. A good soaking and yes it was needed and the upcoming week we have several more chances for rain early in the week and later in the week and next weekend. First week of May almost in the books and no major heat waves in the USA. Saw some build up of heat in the southern plains but only lasted a few days. If this pattern continue we could get away without to much heat in May. Saying that I still believe the first part of summer is going to turn out hotter than normal so talking June and first half or so of July. I kept expecting big time flooding in the northern plains and upper mid-west and sure they had some flooding but my mistake was not understanding the difference between a winter that was milder than normal but near record snowfall in areas compared to a colder than normal winter where the ice is deep. Ice melt causes more problem than snow melt and I missed that completely.

Hello Tim, Mississippi Delta’s dodged a more severe flood episode along with your point was that we didn’t have any persistent thunderstorm complexes over those regions this spring due to the colder spring temps

Still raining but lighter and some thunder still around. Had some hail for about 3-5 minutes this morning and was a little bigger than pea size. Looks like everyone received some rainfall and some folks a little to much. We are in the rainy season so nice to see the rain and hopefully we can add more before mid-month.

Thanks all! Glad the weather was great for our party!