Potential Weekend Snow Jan 7-8th, 2023

[tpweather]

Good morning! It now appears that Sat will be dry. Later Sat night and esp Sunday morning is when the moisture moves in. Some light snow, light freezing rain is possible before we go above freezing and everything that remains falls as rain. We may end as a few flakes Sun evening. That is about what we are looking at now with this system. Could be a slick spot or two Sun morning if temps are cold enough and if enough moisture is realized. This is something to watch if you have to be out early Sunday.

Good Morning Les and I agree and once the models finally locked in on a slightly stronger piece of energy that makes the forecast easier. Would not be surprised to see a small accumulation before we switch to rain.

[tron777]

Good morning! It now appears that Sat will be dry. Later Sat night and esp Sunday morning is when the moisture moves in. Some light snow, light freezing rain is possible before we go above freezing and everything that remains falls as rain. We may end as a few flakes Sun evening. That is about what we are looking at now with this system. Could be a slick spot or two Sun morning if temps are cold enough and if enough moisture is realized. This is something to watch if you have to be out early Sunday.

Good Morning Les and I agree and once the models finally locked in on a slightly stronger piece of energy that makes the forecast easier. Would not be surprised to see a small accumulation before we switch to rain.

Agreed Tim. I think we've got the set up down now. Now, we will focus on the placement of the snow, ice, and plain rain as well as amounts. Also the timing? When does this mess start and when do we flip to rain then the problems are over with? One interesting thing is yeah we've had a week of 60s but yesterday, the 40s. Today cloudy and the 30s so the ground should be cooling down even more. Expecting lows tonight with some clearing to be in the upper 20s. How warm do we get Saturday will play a role as well. Hoping to see some clouds to keep temps down. If not, Low 40s are possible then.

[tron777]

12Z NAM was a touch slower / stronger bringing in light rain for us by midday to Sunday afternoon and that little band of snow for the I-70 folks Sun afternoon. This may turn into a nowcast IMO due to the model flip-flopping going on even this close to the event.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has a batch of light rain for everyone and that's it for Sunday.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM has light frz rain Sun morning (it's brief) then a break, then light rain ending as some flakes Sunday afternoon and evening.

[tron777]

12Z CMC has light rain Sun afternoon and evening ending as some flakes.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a touch of frz rain Sun morning and then really not much precip after that being shown at all. The weak low track is good for us but just little in the way of moisture to work with. A touch of rain ending as snow also possible.

[tron777]

I took a quick peak at the 15Z SREF with regards to precip type. It fits the theme of a touch of frz rain early Sun morning, then plain rain then back to some flakes at the end Sun evening. I can buy that. I think that's a pretty good forecast attm.

18Z HRRR is a bit colder so a bit more wintry, but you truly have the same basic idea here. The 18Z NAM is fairly similar to this idea as well. So really, for those traveling Sun morning, a touch of frz rain is possible and that's about it from a road perspective. Amounts will be very light. The issue maybe your porch, sidewalk, car, drive way etc getting a thin glaze but well traveled roads should be wet minus a bridge or an elevated roadway or something. I'll continue to track this system but for now, just a minor event is all I am expecting out of this.

[tpweather]

I took a quick peak at the 15Z SREF with regards to precip type. It fits the theme of a touch of frz rain early Sun morning, then plain rain then back to some flakes at the end Sun evening. I can buy that. I think that's a pretty good forecast attm.

18Z HRRR is a bit colder so a bit more wintry, but you truly have the same basic idea here. The 18Z NAM is fairly similar to this idea as well. So really, for those traveling Sun morning, a touch of frz rain is possible and that's about it from a road perspective. Amounts will be very light. The issue maybe your porch, sidewalk, car, drive way etc getting a thin glaze but well traveled roads should be wet minus a bridge or an elevated roadway or something. I'll continue to track this system but for now, just a minor event is all I am expecting out of this.

I agree Les and tell you the truth not really worried about the frz/rain . I understand even a little amount can cause problem but I believe it has been to warm around lately and this kind of setup where we get frz/rain is when we had a nice stretch of temps in the upper teens at night for several days. So like you mentioned really not much to see here.

[tron777]

I took a quick peak at the 15Z SREF with regards to precip type. It fits the theme of a touch of frz rain early Sun morning, then plain rain then back to some flakes at the end Sun evening. I can buy that. I think that's a pretty good forecast attm.

18Z HRRR is a bit colder so a bit more wintry, but you truly have the same basic idea here. The 18Z NAM is fairly similar to this idea as well. So really, for those traveling Sun morning, a touch of frz rain is possible and that's about it from a road perspective. Amounts will be very light. The issue maybe your porch, sidewalk, car, drive way etc getting a thin glaze but well traveled roads should be wet minus a bridge or an elevated roadway or something. I'll continue to track this system but for now, just a minor event is all I am expecting out of this.

I agree Les and tell you the truth not really worried about the frz/rain . I understand even a little amount can cause problem but I believe it has been to warm around lately and this kind of setup where we get frz/rain is when we had a nice stretch of temps in the upper teens at night for several days. So like you mentioned really not much to see here.

Agreed... if any slick spots do develop they will be isolated in nature. This is going to be a minor system for sure.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM maybe a touch slower but still offers up the general theme we've been talking about this afternoon. Latest thoughts from the boys:

A surface low is expected to track through the lower Ohio/upper
Tennessee valleys on Sunday. The primary thing to watch with this
system is time of arrival of the precipitation. As of now, the
favored solution is to bring in majority of the heavier pcpn after
12z Sunday morning (and really closer to 18z or so). Ground and
ambient air temperatures during the early morning hours are expected
to be near or below freezing for majority of our counties (with the
exception of some of our northern KY counties). Model soundings do
seem to favor less ice nucleation given that saturation, coupled
with negative omega, is generally below -8C. Thus, most of the
precipitation will be in the form of liquid when it arrives, but a
few snowflakes cannot be completely ruled out. Fortunately, the
later time of arrival with this pcpn will allow ground temperatures
to climb above the freezing mark and limit freezing rain potential.
Note that if models do trend earlier with this pcpn, there could be
some concerns with freezing rain/drizzle development.

Temperatures do continue to warm throughout the day Sunday as rain
overspreads the better part of our CWA - coverage will be better
near/south of the OH River. There is a better chance that snowfall
may push in on the back end of this system for locations along/north
of I-70. This could bring some light accumulations to that area
Sunday night.

[tron777]

Not much to see from the 18Z GFS. The GFS has been the most unorganized and weakest model of the bunch for the last several days.

[tpweather]

Sorry I put this in the wrong area. Need more coffee

[tron777]

Sorry I put this in the wrong area. Need more coffee

No problem! I'll move the post.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! I don't really have much change with this next system. I believe a touch of snow / frz rain late tonight and tomorrow morning followed by a change to plain rain then ending as a touch of snow in the evening. If any issues occur, they will be isolated in nature. Precip amounts are very light with this one.

[tron777]

12Z Euro actually shows nothing now until later Sunday afternoon and evening. Once the low passes to our SE over SE KY and into WVA, the model has 0.10" of QPF on the NW side for the Metro / CVG in the form of snow. Temps start at around 34 then fall below freezing with about 0.02" left. Maybe a covering or a car topper? Best case scenario pretty much at this point lol

[tron777]

12Z Euro actually shows nothing now until later Sunday afternoon and evening. Once the low passes to our SE over SE KY and into WVA, the model has 0.10" of QPF on the NW side for the Metro / CVG in the form of snow. Temps start at around 34 then fall below freezing with about 0.02" left. Maybe a covering or a car topper? Best case scenario pretty much at this point lol

18Z GFS concurs with 0.07" of QPF with the same timing and a tad colder with the thermal profile. Then you have the 18Z Euro now coming in saying what QPF? Anyway... it's a nowcast at this point with the models being the models. I'm bored. I've spent wayyyyy too much time on this minor system anyway.

[tron777]

Radar.gif

[tron777]

An area of mixed precip is over ILL and IN headed our way for later this afternoon and evening. No issues expected but a stripe of snow is certainly possible. Temps today will remain in the 30s.

[tron777]

SPC mesopage shows a weak low of 1020 MB over Lake Cumberland with the moisture at 700 MB still to our NW. Temps are in the mid to U30s right now with dews in the mid to U20s. So we should see some evaporational cooling as we wet bulb down. So still expecting a little rain, sleet, and snow but again not really expecting any issues with this. Just would like to see some flakes later on and I'd call it a win.

[tron777]

A rain / snow mix is moving into our area... if you see any flakes late this afternoon and evening, please post!

[Bgoney]

39 currently here

[tpweather]

40 degrees here and the clouds are a little lower than earlier but not by much. The 4 helicopters at the start of the Bengals game today were flying over my house about 15 minutes before the game and then during the game flew back over my house. When you get 4 it becomes rather loud.

[tron777]

38 / 29 here and dry so far.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged for around 25 Mon morning.