White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[tpweather]

18Z GFS ticked SE. Decent run!!

Les it ticked southeast because its somewhat weaker but not by much. I believe at the start of this storm you may get a few hours of rain but the temperature will drop like a rock and the ratios of snow will be much higher than normal. So far so good imo

Somebody's going to cave on Monday. The Euro all last winter did over amp storms. Is that the case here? I don't know. That satellite pic I posted the other day showered a strong piece of energy so who knows for sure.

Les either way we will get some snow late next week. If the Euro were to pan out you are still talking about 2 or 3 inches or maybe a little more depending on ratios with a flash freeze and plenty of wind. The Cmc were to play out we are talking probably 4-6 inches and the gfs would be more in the 6-8 inch range. That is how I see the models today. The biggest problem will be once the snow is over the streets especially side streets will be in bad shape for several days at the least. I do worry about some power outages with the expected wind. I am not trying to sound like this is the storm of the century but imo it has potential to be rather eventful and especially around the Christmas Holiday.

[Snow plow man]

66B6BF31-85C2-4F92-9C61-0EAC00ABA9F7.jpeg

Saw this on channel 5

[tpweather]

66B6BF31-85C2-4F92-9C61-0EAC00ABA9F7.jpeg

Saw this on channel 5

This is rather interesting since this station uses the Euro model for forecasts.

[Snow plow man]

Didn’t call any totals just something to watch

[tpweather]

Didn’t call any totals just something to watch

No doubt as they will wait until mid-week. Big range of course but it looks like they are agreeing more with the gfs or maybe cmc and not so much the euro.

[tron777]

18Z GFS ticked SE. Decent run!!

Les it ticked southeast because its somewhat weaker but not by much. I believe at the start of this storm you may get a few hours of rain but the temperature will drop like a rock and the ratios of snow will be much higher than normal. So far so good imo

Somebody's going to cave on Monday. The Euro all last winter did over amp storms. Is that the case here? I don't know. That satellite pic I posted the other day showered a strong piece of energy so who knows for sure.

Les either way we will get some snow late next week. If the Euro were to pan out you are still talking about 2 or 3 inches or maybe a little more depending on ratios with a flash freeze and plenty of wind. The Cmc were to play out we are talking probably 4-6 inches and the gfs would be more in the 6-8 inch range. That is how I see the models today. The biggest problem will be once the snow is over the streets especially side streets will be in bad shape for several days at the least. I do worry about some power outages with the expected wind. I am not trying to sound like this is the storm of the century but imo it has potential to be rather eventful and especially around the Christmas Holiday.

That's a good summation Tim!

[mainevilleweather]

What model is the GDPS on Pivotal weather?

[tron777]

What model is the GDPS on Pivotal weather?

CMC or Canadian model.

[mainevilleweather]

What model is the GDPS on Pivotal weather?

CMC or Canadian model.

That's what I thought, but wasn't 100 percent sure haha.

[mikeyp]

Gfs looks real nice so far

[tron777]

Very nice GFS run incoming.... Glad I stayed up for it! A nice PNA ridge axis in a good spot and the low doesn't get cranking until it moves up the Apps. Almost perfect!

[mikeyp]

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[mainevilleweather]

Dudes this just keeps getting better and better on the GFS.

[tron777]

There's our big dog... For CVG:

Code: Select all

THU 18Z 22-DEC   0.1    -1.4    1022      89      97    0.04     553     536    
FRI 00Z 23-DEC  -0.2    -1.3    1016      98      97    0.16     550     538    
FRI 06Z 23-DEC  -2.5    -2.8    1008      97      97    0.27     542     536    
FRI 12Z 23-DEC  -4.7    -7.3    1000      95      96    0.40     530     530    
FRI 18Z 23-DEC  -6.1   -13.2    1001      93      99    0.28     521     520    
SAT 00Z 24-DEC -10.5   -14.3    1011      88      96    0.11     524     515    

[tron777]

Dudes this just keeps getting better and better on the GFS.

Is it right? I'd feel better with more model support. I would love to see the Euro when I wake up trend weaker l SE towards the GFS idea.

[tron777]

Off topic but nice snow in the 4th quarter in Buffalo!

[mikeyp]

Dudes this just keeps getting better and better on the GFS.

Is it right? I'd feel better with more model support. I would love to see the Euro when I wake up trend weaker l SE towards the GFS idea.

We all soon shall find out!!

Yes! Excellent game and love the snow there now

[mainevilleweather]

I know I am worried being in this good of shape this far out. Feel like it never favors us in the end, but does seem there is model agreement just how much snow?

[4SeaSonS]

The latest thoughts from the boys.

"The Arctic blast arrives Thursday night and Friday. There is
considerable confidence that dangerously cold temperatures as well as strong gusty winds will occur with this system. In fact, the ECMWF 50-member ensemble shows a greater than 50% chance of below zero temperatures along with a 10% to 20% chance of 50+ knot gusts under strong cold air advection. At this time range, have kept with blended temperatures, but have increased wind gusts in the grids by mixing in some of the stronger solutions. The combination of these two ingredients lead to wind chills less than -10 degrees on Friday with a few values below -20 degrees Saturday morning.

As far as precipitation goes, there are still significant model
differences with the position of the developing surface low, so details are still highly uncertain as to where (and if) any
significant accumulating snow may occur. With this being such a strong system, there are a few members (such as the GFS deterministic) with a surface low position that brings the potential for a high impact snow storm on Friday. However, ensemble blends lean toward less snow, so will continue to monitor trends moving forward.

At any rate, it would be prudent to prepare for a dangerously cold period with potentially hazardous travel conditions leading up to the Christmas holiday."

[tron777]

Good morning all! Euro is still the least snowy solution but an IN track. CMC def trended to the GFS. 6z GFS bumped west again but still a decent outcome. Goal posts are narrowing. IND to Apps now in play. We're getting there. We're close guys... Oh so close.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Euro is still the least snowy solution but an IN track. CMC def trended to the GFS. 6z GFS bumped west again but still a decent outcome. Goal posts are narrowing. IND to Apps now in play. We're getting there. We're close guys... Oh so close.

Good Morning Les and I believe you have the goal posts in place. I had a hard time with Chicago but Indy to the Apps looks really good. Hopefully over the next few days we can start throwing some possible totals but again at this point a little early. Sure like always we throw out model totals but we always wait and make those calls much closer to the system. I have felt good about the gfs since it switched off the east coast ideal. The exact path will of course have to be ironed out but somebody in the Ohio Valley is going to get a rather large snow but everyone will feel the cold and winds. With a system like this even smaller totals in the 2-4 inch range can cause problems as we have a big drop in temps and the winds.

We are just in the early stages of this pattern change that I believe is 3-4 weeks and no not everyday will be below normal in temps but I am not seeing the January Thaw until the 9th-11th period probably and a true thaw I believe as we reload the cold well to the north once again.

[tron777]

I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down so I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

[Bgoney]

EU has been most consistent last 4 runs. But no doubt there is nothing set in stone

[tpweather]

I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

[tron777]

I think the overall trend of 0z guidance was SE but we need to see more GFS ideas for snow lovers and especially before going with the snowier forecast. Anything from an inch or so to double digits are on the table. 2 more days then much better energy sampling as well as how the PNA is going to behave.