Absolute Vorticity

Hmmm, CFS has all the bases covered for November then , the monthlies are a.complete opposite

I can see the above working out should the MJO fail to move. That's the wildcard to me with regards to the timing of this potential pattern change ) -EPO, -NAO, +PNA, etc etc etc). The right tropical forcing will cause the indices to change then you'll see the results at 500 MB. Again, if the MJO stays in 6 / 7 dies in the neutral circle and doesn't come back out in the colder phases... etc, then the CFS V2 Monthly will be correct.

The one problem I still have with the longer term models is they have to much current weather thrown into whatever calculation they use. This imo tends to skew things either to warm or cold depending on the current weather. Again another tool in the toolbox to use but I tend to not reach in and grab this for much of my forecasting.

If past trends are anything then the pattern should change since we know there have been tendencies for blocking. The question is if and when.

Good morning all and Happy 1st Day of Nov to you all! It's the last month of Met Fall. Nov can have some nice days, severe wx, heavy rains, ice, and snow. We've seen it all around here in Nov from 70s to teens and 20s. Gloomy to start off the month today but after the sun comes out later today, we are left with the 70s for a good chunk of the week and on into the weekend. Models are speeding up the next system. Going with POPS now for Sat night into Sunday. Still keeping Sat during the day dry. The rain should slowly end Monday with the front lingering in the region for a couple of days. That front washes out then we await the next one around the 10-12th period. Does that one make it thru is the question or do we wait for another one around mid month to break down the ridge? Do we have to wait until Thanksgiving? Stay tuned as our focus is the next few frontal systems as well as the longer term.

As a side note, I'll try and get the contest spread sheet up at lunch today then I'll unlock that thread. Thanks!

EDIT: Contest thread is unlocked and spread sheet has been uploaded. Good luck folks!

Good afternoon,

The biggest issue in the medium range is the timing and amounts of the next front and how long does it get stuck over us? The action looks to begin Late Sat / Sat night thru maybe Monday or so of next week. models differ on frontal zone timing and placement as you would expect this far out. The front gets stuck thanks to low pressure (tropical or non-tropical does not matter) off the SE Coast jamming up the pattern. Until that thing moves over front cannot move and fronts diving in from the NW wash out over us and I think that's what is going to happen with the next system.

My early call is for Sat night / Sun morning is the first weakening line of rain coming in. then a short break and more showers fire up along the front Sun night / Monday. Then the front washes out and we may not get a stronger one to clear things out until Nov 10-15th time period depending on the model of choice. So until then, mild weather will prevail. Next chance for rain late Sat or Sat night is my thinking. I think we get Sat daytime hours in dry at this time. Might smoke a brisket then!

Good afternoon,

The biggest issue in the medium range is the timing and amounts of the next front and how long does it get stuck over us? The action looks to begin Late Sat / Sat night thru maybe Monday or so of next week. models differ on frontal zone timing and placement as you would expect this far out. The front gets stuck thanks to low pressure (tropical or non-tropical does not matter) off the SE Coast jamming up the pattern. Until that thing moves over front cannot move and fronts diving in from the NW wash out over us and I think that's what is going to happen with the next system.

My early call is for Sat night / Sun morning is the first weakening line of rain coming in. then a short break and more showers fire up along the front Sun night / Monday. Then the front washes out and we may not get a stronger one to clear things out until Nov 10-15th time period depending on the model of choice. So until then, mild weather will prevail. Next chance for rain late Sat or Sat night is my thinking. I think we get Sat daytime hours in dry at this time. Might smoke a brisket then!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:39 pm Good afternoon,

The biggest issue in the medium range is the timing and amounts of the next front and how long does it get stuck over us? The action looks to begin Late Sat / Sat night thru maybe Monday or so of next week. models differ on frontal zone timing and placement as you would expect this far out. The front gets stuck thanks to low pressure (tropical or non-tropical does not matter) off the SE Coast jamming up the pattern. Until that thing moves over front cannot move and fronts diving in from the NW wash out over us and I think that's what is going to happen with the next system.

My early call is for Sat night / Sun morning is the first weakening line of rain coming in. then a short break and more showers fire up along the front Sun night / Monday. Then the front washes out and we may not get a stronger one to clear things out until Nov 10-15th time period depending on the model of choice. So until then, mild weather will prevail. Next chance for rain late Sat or Sat night is my thinking. I think we get Sat daytime hours in dry at this time. Might smoke a brisket then!

Les that tropical/non tropical could really mess up my golf trip if the current Euro/Cmc is correct. The gfs is further south and east plus slower so I would get the entire trip with very little rain. Come on gfs be my friend

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 2:39 pm Good afternoon,

The biggest issue in the medium range is the timing and amounts of the next front and how long does it get stuck over us? The action looks to begin Late Sat / Sat night thru maybe Monday or so of next week. models differ on frontal zone timing and placement as you would expect this far out. The front gets stuck thanks to low pressure (tropical or non-tropical does not matter) off the SE Coast jamming up the pattern. Until that thing moves over front cannot move and fronts diving in from the NW wash out over us and I think that's what is going to happen with the next system.

My early call is for Sat night / Sun morning is the first weakening line of rain coming in. then a short break and more showers fire up along the front Sun night / Monday. Then the front washes out and we may not get a stronger one to clear things out until Nov 10-15th time period depending on the model of choice. So until then, mild weather will prevail. Next chance for rain late Sat or Sat night is my thinking. I think we get Sat daytime hours in dry at this time. Might smoke a brisket then!

Les that tropical/non tropical could really mess up my golf trip if the current Euro/Cmc is correct. The gfs is further south and east plus slower so I would get the entire trip with very little rain. Come on gfs be my friend

Yeah... foreign models keep you showery so start drinking sooner! GFS keeps it offshore until Thursday buying you some time.

The sun is almost here!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:55 am Good morning all and Happy 1st Day of Nov to you all! It's the last month of Met Fall. Nov can have some nice days, severe wx, heavy rains, ice, and snow. We've seen it all around here in Nov from 70s to teens and 20s. Gloomy to start off the month today but after the sun comes out later today, we are left with the 70s for a good chunk of the week and on into the weekend. Models are speeding up the next system. Going with POPS now for Sat night into Sunday. Still keeping Sat during the day dry. The rain should slowly end Monday with the front lingering in the region for a couple of days. That front washes out then we await the next one around the 10-12th period. Does that one make it thru is the question or do we wait for another one around mid month to break down the ridge? Do we have to wait until Thanksgiving? Stay tuned as our focus is the next few frontal systems as well as the longer term.

First half of month still on track for well above normal temps, precip a little iffy, but looks like normal to below as best moisture will probably remain to our west

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 4:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:55 am Good morning all and Happy 1st Day of Nov to you all! It's the last month of Met Fall. Nov can have some nice days, severe wx, heavy rains, ice, and snow. We've seen it all around here in Nov from 70s to teens and 20s. Gloomy to start off the month today but after the sun comes out later today, we are left with the 70s for a good chunk of the week and on into the weekend. Models are speeding up the next system. Going with POPS now for Sat night into Sunday. Still keeping Sat during the day dry. The rain should slowly end Monday with the front lingering in the region for a couple of days. That front washes out then we await the next one around the 10-12th period. Does that one make it thru is the question or do we wait for another one around mid month to break down the ridge? Do we have to wait until Thanksgiving? Stay tuned as our focus is the next few frontal systems as well as the longer term.

First half of month still on track for well above normal temps, precip a little iffy, but looks like normal to below as best moisture will probably remain to our west

I agree due to the weakening nature of the next 1 to perhaps 2 systems.

SPS tonight / in the morning for patchy dense fog in effect for all of AV Country!

...Patchy dense fog expected to reduce visibilities late tonight
to Wednesday morning...

Fog is expected to form tonight under clearing skies and light
winds. The fog may become dense in spots, reducing visibility to
under a half mile in some locations. Please remain alert for the
reduced visibilities and adjust your driving accordingly. The fog
is forecast to dissipate by mid morning Wednesday as temperatures
and winds increase.

Good morning! Watch out for dense fog in some places. Same deal for tomorrow morning. 60s today then we begin our string of 70s. Next chance of rain still looking to be late Sat into Sunday. Heaviest should come Sat night.

Oh and if you saw the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, pay no attention to that fantasy snow behind the curtain.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:31 am Good morning! Watch out for dense fog in some places. Same deal for tomorrow morning. 60s today then wee begin our string of 70s. Next chance of rain still looking to be late Sat into Sunday. Heaviest should come Sat night.

Oh and if you saw the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, pay no attention to that fantasy snow behind the curtain.

CB's first call map coming shortly

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:31 am Good morning! Watch out for dense fog in some places. Same deal for tomorrow morning. 60s today then wee begin our string of 70s. Next chance of rain still looking to be late Sat into Sunday. Heaviest should come Sat night.

Oh and if you saw the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, pay no attention to that fantasy snow behind the curtain.

CB's first call map coming shortly

LOL!! No doubt.

I think another 0.25" is about all we're going to get with this next system. Lighter east, heavier amounts west. That SE ridge has got to go since these systems keep drying up as they run into it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:01 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:31 am Good morning! Watch out for dense fog in some places. Same deal for tomorrow morning. 60s today then wee begin our string of 70s. Next chance of rain still looking to be late Sat into Sunday. Heaviest should come Sat night.

Oh and if you saw the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, pay no attention to that fantasy snow behind the curtain.

CB's first call map coming shortly

LOL!! No doubt.

I think another 0.25" is about all we're going to get with this next system. Lighter east, heavier amounts west. That SE ridge has got to go since these systems keep drying up as they run into it.

EPS shows this to a T

Good Morning and some low clouds down here this morning. I agree with both of you on the weekend system. The energy is heading up into the great lakes and we just get whatever precip we can get from the front itself. So .25 sounds about right.

You can also see per the EPS that Bgoney posted that any deeper moisture from the southern / ocean system is a swing and a miss to the SE. We're in no mans land between the front and that ocean system for the most part so we are left with whatever scraps we can get.

Good Afternoon and still cloudy down here. How many times over the years have we seen models so a nice cold shot for mid-late November and we end up staying mild. This year looks different and with the EPO looking to go negative and if that is true then we should see some cold shots near mid-month and beyond. The northern jet stream looks to be busy and models are already showing that over the next week as southern Canada and the northern part of the USA is getting system after system. The mjo is right on the border of phase 6 and 7 and at the moment not moving expect certain days are more intense. I like the mjo in that phase this time of year especially if it does not head for the COD and no signs to show that. So the look for an early start seems to playing out but again exactly how quickly the cold gets in here can have to wait for the tropics to finally slow down.

Great post Tim! That system off the SE Coast that eventually moves inland and finally out of the way is going to take a week to 10 days to do so. So until that process is complete, the SE Ridge rules for us and we'll only see dying cold fronts. Once that low moves out, then the cold fronts can come in. In addition, TS Martin in the ATL is expected to become a hurricane and then a powerful extra tropical low as it charges towards Greenland. All of that energy and heat charging up into the Arctic is going to push up the ridge causing the AO to go negative IMO should this scenario occur. This should already cause a weak PV to elongate and stretch further. Do not know if it leads to a split in December but if so look out! Coldest air is already on outside so if the -EPO comes, the cold will come into Canada and dump into the lower 48. We maybe looking at a mid Nov flip instead of Thanksgiving. (I am not forecasting this, we are just discussing the possibility). We need to pay attention to the tropics and how they impact the hemispheric pattern over the next 10 days. We've got a critical period coming up and if it unfolds the right way, an early start to winter is a slam dunk. We do not yet know, it's mega early still and we have a lot of warm days to go.

Concerning the MJO, it has stalled in {Phase 7 as of 10/31. Aussie model keeps it in 7 then it dives into the neutral circle. GFS is 8 then it dies. Euro is very close to 8 (7 / 8 border) then it dies. So this isn't horrible. Better then being stuck in 5 or 6 which would be the -PNA from hell like last year. This is workable and with the MJO either stalled or weak, that simply means something else can take over the pattern. The point of this post is the tropics driving the favorable arctic teleconnections. -EPO and -AO.

Martin is actually a hurricane now and could become a Cat 2 before weakening. Check out the track lol

Great Posts Les,the first post is perfect and nothing to add. The second post and the chances of the system to become a hurricane just shows you how much warm water is further north at this time of year. This is both the atlantic and pacific.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 02, 2022 1:22 pm Great Posts Les,the first post is perfect and nothing to add. The second post and the chances of the system to become a hurricane just shows you how much warm water is further north at this time of year. This is both the atlantic and pacific.

Second half of Nov going into December I think is going to get rather interesting at some point. I envision (if everything works out as discussed) a split jet stream flow where you have the polar jet coming in diving SE from Montana and into the Plains then rolling up the OV / Apps / East Coast areas. Meantime, the subtropical jet provides upper lows coming into S CA and the Baja areas that have the potential to phase in to create bigger and more moisture laden storms. Heavy rain, ice, and snow producing systems would all be on the table based on the storm track of each system (thru the OV, Apps, or East Coast). It'll be interesting to see how this all evolves. Just because the EPO goes negative, the cold can still go into the West with a -PNA but I think the STJ will undercut a +PNA / -EPO combination and with the -AO we discussed, the cold air can get involved. I can't tell you if we are on the snow or rain side of any system this far away, so we're just discussing the overall 500 MB pattern and nothing more.