Absolute Vorticity

932 mb now

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:59 am932 mb now

Will they pull the trigger?

Nope.

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
900 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

Peak Storm Surge Inundation has been increased for the following
locations:

* From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft
* Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft



SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:01 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:59 am932 mb now

Will they pull the trigger?

I mean it's literally 2 mph away from a cat 5.

Watching Reed Timmer on his YouTube channel....he is in the Punta Gorda area I think. The Dominator! LOL

Been looking at some web and traffic cams from Sarasota. It's going downhill fast there.

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near
Sanibel Island. The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers
recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Seeing live cams in Pt Charlotte FL - a lot of the water has been sucked out of the bay. Wow!

Once Ian center moves a bit more north, the wind direction will shift and bring in GOM water into the bay with 12-18 foot surge expected.

Watching a Ft Myers beach cam. A lovely day for beach goers!

Ft Myers or maybe just a bit south of there, looks to be close per radar presentation, to where the eye will make landfall.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Prayers for my one friend, his wife and children who live in the Cape Coral (on the Colusa Hatchie river) area just southeast of Ft Myers. They decided to not evacuate, My other friend who's been in contact with him since yesterday said that they are really scared.

This thing is not weakening at all per radar and satellite presentation. It just completed an ERC or eyewall replacement cycle, just in time for landfall, which means borderline Cat 4 / 5 until it gets onshore to begin the slow weakening process. Cat 1 force winds still expected even in Jacksonville!

wow. just heartwrenching following this.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:24 am wow. just heartwrenching following this.

It's a going to be a bad deal for a lot of folks, Dave. Esp for those that didn't leave.

Radar as of 11:20am:

Updated track from the NHC for Ian shows Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings up thru all of SC now too. The center or what's left of Ian maybe come close to your Greenville Hood, Tim!

Les you are correct and though most of the forecasts have been 3-5 inches my guess if the current track is correct that total will head upwards.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:55 am Les you are correct and though most of the forecasts have been 3-5 inches my guess if the current track is correct that total will head upwards.

I like 3-5" for a starting call. We'll have to see how slowly it moves once it makes that second landfall along the SE Coast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:57 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:55 am Les you are correct and though most of the forecasts have been 3-5 inches my guess if the current track is correct that total will head upwards.

I like 3-5" for a starting call. We'll have to see how slowly it moves once it makes that second landfall along the SE Coast.

Funny thing Les is the forecasts around the CVG area usually overestimates rainfall from many systems while in Greenville I have noticed over the past 3 1/2 years they underestimate totals. My guess that is a model problem not a forecaster problem.

BG LIVE Ian Coverage:

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...

A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass,
Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and
a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near
Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77
mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth
Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently
reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.)

The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb
(28.61 inches).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES