September 2022 WX discussion

[MVWxObserver]

I am so sorry for the cloudy, rainy weather coming up the next couple of weeks. It is all my fault. I just purchased a new telescope that arrived yesterday and it is well known that will cause crappy weather for a while. I don't know why that seems to happen, but many times that seem to be the case according to others on an astronomy website.

I suppose you can compare it to Jason buying that snow blower and killing our snow chances in winter all those years ago!

I miss Jason and his added analysis / observations input.

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

Via ILN a 30% chance Sat, 50/50% Sun and 40% for Labor Day up my way.

Currently 79 here in G'ville and looking at around 86 for this afternoon.

Now at 50% for Sat, 60% Sun and 50% Labor Day.

[tron777]

I normally don't post the entire ILN AFD, but will do so for this next event. The boys pretty much are on the same page as we are unfortunately in this case. For a small portion of our SE Crew zone, the rain is already here!

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Have added thunderstorms to Robertson, Bracken and Mason
Counties in Kentucky due to small cluster of convection that has
arrived there on a humid southerly flow. Otherwise, rest of the
area should remain dry tonight under high clouds forming well
ahead of a trough to the west.

Overnight lows will range from 65-70 with a generally light
south-southeast wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will increase through the column through the day and
combine with weak insolation and mid level energy to increase
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A relative minimum
with little if any shower activity is noted from a Richmond-
Dayton-London line northward. Will try to limit activity here
but can not keep this area dry in good conscience given the
higher than usual uncertainty in the upper level dynamics which
will be the primary driver of where showers will be located
tomorrow.

A few models are noting a stronger precip maxima closer to a
Maysville-Chillicothe-Logan line in the morning. However the
situation works out, cloud cover will limit highs to the lower
80s, and any prolonged shower activity could further hamper
daytime rises to just the upper 70s.

Overnight should see rain spread northward with activity
occurring over the entire CWA at one point in time or another.
The 12Z GFS is a bit concerning as it is mainly dry through the
nighttime period. However, the bulk of the remaining
deterministic models are showing a better consensus of more
widespread activity overnight over the CWA. Thunder will remain
a possibility through the night but the potential for strong
storms (excepting a good downpour at times) is very low.

Overnight lows will be between 66-68 degrees in most instances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Synoptically speaking, not much has changed from previous
guidance for the first half of the period. A weak cold front
will move through the area on Sunday, forcing scattered showers
and storms in front of it. While severe threat is low, some weak
instability builds in during the afternoon hours, so any storms
may have localized strong winds and lighting. Bear this in mind
if planning outdoor activities.

Additionally, forecast soundings depict skinny CAPE between
500- 1200J/kg, warm cloud layers upwards of 10-11K ft, mean RHs
around 70- 80%, and PWATs anywhere from 1.6-2inches, indicating
high precipitation efficiency. Slow propagation of storms due to
little synoptic forcing and/or training storms may result in
areas of isolated flash flooding. Given lack of strong flow
aloft, storms will be isolated to scattered in nature and
identifying the exact location for flood threat is difficult at
this time.

Moving forward to the start of the work week, guidance is
consistent with the strong ridging out west remaining in place.
However, the solution for the eastern half of CONUS is a bit
more ambiguous. The GFS/Canadian resolve the trough deeper into
TX/AR area and eventually pull the ridge east, suggesting a
slightly drier solution. The Euro continues to close off the
trough, but placement of this feature varies from run to run.
Either way, generally unsettled weather seems to be the dominant
pattern, so have gone with a blend for now, trimming PoPs back
from the NBM`s more ECMWF- centric solution.

Interestingly, by mid to late week, varying guidance begins to
develop a weak closed 500h low somewhere west of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley area. Behavior and position of this
feature varies wildly between models but, given that it seems
probable that some type of cyclonic flow will be in place near
the FA, have hedged toward NBM and maintained chance PoPs during
this period.

High temperatures for the week in the upper 70s/ low 80s while
lows are in the mid/upper 60s.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Heading out to my Brother's today so probably won't be posting a whole heck of a lot until sometime Sunday when I come back home. The forecast is in good shape. Down pours are already popping as we expected. Have a plan B to go indoors if a downpour impacts your hood or party then come back outside when it's done.

[Bgoney]

Wet beginning to the 3 day weekend right on schedule, in scattered locations. Trends continue to get uglier with scattered activity at anytime. Of course it won't rain constantly, bit it will be a mostly cloudy damp weekend. Looking more likely that flash flooding will be in store . Both today and tomorrow, with some isolated spots getting 3-5" . Ma nature has her own fireworks show planned

[Bgoney]

Just got a quick .60" in 25 minutes. Plenty of T&L to go with it

[tpweather]

Good Morning and no rain yet but even my area should get some this weekend lol. Lawn really needs the love though we got some last Monday and it helped some but once again need a few inches to really keep the lawn from browning out. At my neighbors yesterday and lives maybe 4 miles to the west and the lawn looks wonderful. Rain is at my doorstep but I should probably open the door though. Trough is getting established and once it settles in we should start to see a lot of south to north bands of rain over the next few days. Flooding will be localized and my guess at times this weekend a flood watch will be posted for certain areas. This could be flash flooding as well with some of these showers and thundershowers putting down some heavy downpours in a short period.

[tpweather]

Once again rain missed my house. This seems to be a pattern.

[Bgoney]

Once again rain missed my house. This seems to be a pattern.

Hold tight Tim, I think you're going to get a fair share pretty soon

[tron777]

WEBN Fireworks maybe impacted as well. We'll see! Nothing here yet, just a bunch of noise thus far. We'll see what happens in Milford.

[cloudy72]

Once again rain missed my house. This seems to be a pattern.

Looks like my dome put up shop over your hood unfortunately Tim. Getting a good storm here at the moment.

[Bgoney]

Round 2 has begun here, mod rain atm, could last a little longer as a SW to NE line is developing over the eastern Hamilton and clermont counties

[tpweather]

Once again rain missed my house. This seems to be a pattern.

Looks like my dome put up shop over your hood unfortunately Tim. Getting a good storm here at the moment.

Hey Mike, you can have your dome back lol. Two rounds near me this morning and the first one a complete miss but the second one was almost enough to dampen the sidewalk.

[Bgoney]

Two round total of . 95" and still raining lightly . This is really unfortunate with all the activities planned for the weekend. Restaurants and bars depending on outdoor seating could take a big hit(UC game today) . As close to a washout as you can get with off and on showers for most of the region all day. We should start to see more development off to our SW this afternoon and move in cvg's direction

[young pup]

College gameday is going to have to move inside up here. Go Bucks.

[cloudy72]

0.37” for me so far

[tron777]

Not sure about back home but here in Milford it is a washout of a day. Had to put up a canopy over the smoker and extend the pipe outside more but it's working perfectly! Ribs are coming along and Michigan game coming on shortly on the big TV in my brother's shop. Almost beer thirty!

[tpweather]

Not sure about back home but here in Milford it is a washout of a day. Had to put up a canopy over the smoker and extend the pipe outside more but it's working perfectly! Ribs are coming along and Michigan game coming on shortly on the big TV in my brother's shop. Almost beer thirty!

Hey Les only a small ground wetter so far. Getting missed so far but hopefully that changes this afternoon.

[Bgoney]

Up to 1.5" since 7am when it started, with light rain ongoing

[MVWxObserver]

----

[Bgoney]

Have a situation developing in south central and SE Indiana, stationary and back building heavy rain makers creating a widening FF area and could expand into some of ILNs counties later

[tpweather]

Have a situation developing in south central and SE Indiana, stationary and back building heavy rain makers creating a widening FF area and could expand into some of ILNs counties later

Up to a whopping 0.01 so far.

[tpweather]

Next round is headed my way. Not sure what the odds are of me getting more than 1/10 of an inch lol.

[Bgoney]

Next round is headed my way. Not sure what the odds are of me getting more than 1/10 of an inch lol.

NKY hasn't been worked over yet today, I'm confident some heavier showers will make it to your hood. That Blob sure looks like its ever so slowly headed for you

[cloudy72]

0.75” here so far. A lot more than I was expecting for sure