August 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Visible looks great! We should see several hours of sunshine to help with the destabilization process. CAPE values already are responding with 2000 J/KG back over KY and 1500 for IN and OH. Not bad and it's only 1pm. The clouds cleared fast enough where our severe threat is certainly on the table S of I-70 in my opinion. Somewhere over the Tri-state is where I am currently expecting storms to pop later. We'll check out continued data this afternoon and BG will be on around 2pm with another live update as well.

[House of Cards]

I wish they would stop saying stuff like 1 in a 1000 year flood and stuff when they talk about weather events like what happened in Kentucky. we did not even have recorded official data going back that far for one thing. i was just watching some footage and its pretty bad for sure with local infrastructure taken out along with many homes in lower areas. its very tragic for the ones that got trapped and no where to escape with water rising. some of the people will probably never be found

Agreed. It's all for ratings and nothing else.

And unfortunately the KY Governor cries on cue better than anyone I've ever seen. If it was an Olympic Event, he'd have the Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medals all to himself. Not at all meant to diminish the tragedy, but tired of these being used as springboards for politicians to whip up more frightened Climate Change nonsense.

[tron777]

I wish they would stop saying stuff like 1 in a 1000 year flood and stuff when they talk about weather events like what happened in Kentucky. we did not even have recorded official data going back that far for one thing. i was just watching some footage and its pretty bad for sure with local infrastructure taken out along with many homes in lower areas. its very tragic for the ones that got trapped and no where to escape with water rising. some of the people will probably never be found

Agreed. It's all for ratings and nothing else.

And unfortunately the KY Governor cries on cue better than anyone I've ever seen. If it was an Olympic Event, he'd have the Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medals all to himself. Not at all meant to diminish the tragedy, but tired of these being used as springboards for politicians to whip up more frightened Climate Change nonsense.

It's very frustrating for sure esp when those people need help! Some towns were completely wiped off the map. There is nothing left. A lot of people need a place to live, a car to get to work, etc. They truly have nothing and a lot are poor to begin with. This is Appalachia we are talking about here. With that stated, the bottom line should all be about helping the people recover and leave the politics aside. Obviously, that isn't happening and it is only getting worse with how things are today. Unfortunately, long range indications continue to look active in the OV so more flooding concerns are in the offing for SE KY without a doubt.

[tron777]

Looking at the visible here... do you all spot that boundary over South Central ILL into Central IN? Could this be the boundary where storms ignite later? You can see the old boundary from this morning too running NW to SE across SE IN, NKY, and SW Ohio along the river.

1kmv.gif

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and only got 0.05 from the morning round but every little bit comes in handy. I agree we are clearing out nicely plus I believe once storms form later this evening you may see where the storms sort of back track to the southwest as they try and head towards the heat. Interesting set up and rather busy first day of August. Very breezy outside as well today

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and only got 0.05 from the morning round but every little bit comes in handy. I agree we are clearing out nicely plus I believe once storms form later this evening you may see where the storms sort of back track to the southwest as they try and head towards the heat. Interesting set up and rather busy first day of August. Very breezy outside as well today

Yes... they move from the NE to the SW to your point tonight Tim. Going to be interesting to watch that radar around dinner time.

[Bgoney]

I wish they would stop saying stuff like 1 in a 1000 year flood and stuff when they talk about weather events like what happened in Kentucky. we did not even have recorded official data going back that far for one thing. i was just watching some footage and its pretty bad for sure with local infrastructure taken out along with many homes in lower areas. its very tragic for the ones that got trapped and no where to escape with water rising. some of the people will probably never be found

Agreed. It's all for ratings and nothing else.

And unfortunately the KY Governor cries on cue better than anyone I've ever seen. If it was an Olympic Event, he'd have the Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medals all to himself. Not at all meant to diminish the tragedy, but tired of these being used as springboards for politicians to whip up more frightened Climate Change nonsense.

It's very frustrating for sure esp when those people need help! Some towns were completely wiped off the map. There is nothing left. A lot of people need a place to live, a car to get to work, etc. They truly have nothing and a lot are poor to begin with. This is Appalachia we are talking about here. With that stated, the bottom line should all be about helping the people recover and leave the politics aside. Obviously, that isn't happening and it is only getting worse with how things are today. Unfortunately, long range indications continue to look active in the OV so more flooding concerns are in the offing for SE KY without a doubt.

What are you going to do , MSM need to feed the people that eat that stuff up. People don't even know what that really means , I know it doesn't mean it should happen once every thousand years, it could happen any time . Next week, next year, whenever, these setups have existed since civilization. These stationary boundaries occur numerous timess a year every year across the middle of the country and with the right conditions that much rain in a 12 hour period could and has happened before, just not in a mountainous terrain in Eastern KY

[tron777]

What are you going to do , MSM need to feed the people that eat that stuff up. People don't even know what that really means , I know it doesn't mean it should happen once every thousand years, it could happen any time . Next week, next year, whenever, these setups have existed since civilization. These stationary boundaries occur numerous timess a year every year across the middle of the country and with the right conditions that much rain in a 12 hour period could and has happened before, just not in a mountainous terrain in Eastern KY

Outstanding post! This post is exactly right, folks. We've seen it occur here before. Remember a couple of summers ago when there was massive flooding in Norwood / St. Bernard areas? Lots of issues there. We've seen extensive River Flooding... ask our posters along the river, like Matt for example in Ripley. If you live near a stream, river, creek, low lying area, etc. you have to be prepared for things like this. Sometimes, even if you are prepared, you lose the battle with Mother Nature. it's part of life. But I would feel better going in personally being prepared. Like every fall we make preparations here, such as making sure trees are trimmed if they are close to the house. Mulch up the leaves. Make sure your car is winterized and ready for the colder weather. Make sure you have a decent amount of food on hand. Etc. Just common sense type stuff.

[tpweather]

What are you going to do , MSM need to feed the people that eat that stuff up. People don't even know what that really means , I know it doesn't mean it should happen once every thousand years, it could happen any time . Next week, next year, whenever, these setups have existed since civilization. These stationary boundaries occur numerous timess a year every year across the middle of the country and with the right conditions that much rain in a 12 hour period could and has happened before, just not in a mountainous terrain in Eastern KY

Outstanding post! This post is exactly right, folks. We've seen it occur here before. Remember a couple of summers ago when there was massive flooding in Norwood / St. Bernard areas? Lots of issues there. We've seen extensive River Flooding... ask our posters along the river, like Matt for example in Ripley. If you live near a stream, river, creek, low lying area, etc. you have to be prepared for things like this. Sometimes, even if you are prepared, you lose the battle with Mother Nature. it's part of life. But I would feel better going in personally being prepared. Like every fall we make preparations here, such as making sure trees are trimmed if they are close to the house. Mulch up the leaves. Make sure your car is winterized and ready for the colder weather. Make sure you have a decent amount of food on hand. Etc. Just common sense type stuff.

Les what is this common sense thing you mentioned

[tron777]

[tron777]

What are you going to do , MSM need to feed the people that eat that stuff up. People don't even know what that really means , I know it doesn't mean it should happen once every thousand years, it could happen any time . Next week, next year, whenever, these setups have existed since civilization. These stationary boundaries occur numerous timess a year every year across the middle of the country and with the right conditions that much rain in a 12 hour period could and has happened before, just not in a mountainous terrain in Eastern KY

Outstanding post! This post is exactly right, folks. We've seen it occur here before. Remember a couple of summers ago when there was massive flooding in Norwood / St. Bernard areas? Lots of issues there. We've seen extensive River Flooding... ask our posters along the river, like Matt for example in Ripley. If you live near a stream, river, creek, low lying area, etc. you have to be prepared for things like this. Sometimes, even if you are prepared, you lose the battle with Mother Nature. it's part of life. But I would feel better going in personally being prepared. Like every fall we make preparations here, such as making sure trees are trimmed if they are close to the house. Mulch up the leaves. Make sure your car is winterized and ready for the colder weather. Make sure you have a decent amount of food on hand. Etc. Just common sense type stuff.

Les what is this common sense thing you mentioned

It's not too common anymore.

[tpweather]

Temp of 82 and dew point of 66. Dew points usually fall in the afternoon but took a nice tumble after the minor rain event this morning.

[tron777]

Temp of 82 and dew point of 66. Dew points usually fall in the afternoon but took a nice tumble after the minor rain event this morning.

I like this actually. Juicer dews, higher heat and of course, the best CAPE is SW of us so we are right on the edge which is a good spot to be in for storms to track. SW of us there is likely a cap in place.

[cloudy72]

Les what is this common sense thing you mentioned

Something that is sorely lacking in society today. LOL

So I got 0.04" in dodging the two storms this morning. Still think I am just a bit too north for the afternoon redevelopment. Hopefully I am wrong. I think someone in CVG land will see some nice downpours this evening.

[Trevor]

While the media is a cesspool of hype on a daily basis, they’re not wrong about the wording on this flooding. Was talking to my buddy at ILN and here’s how he says the weather service makes their calculations:

“ The way I understand it is this... It's a statistical calculation based on observations. So, for a 1 in 1 year flood, there is a 100% chance that it will occur every year. For a 10 in 1 year flood, there is a 10% that it will occur every year. For a 100 in 1 year flood, there is a 1% chance that it will occur every year. For 1 in 1000 year flood, there is a .1% chance that it will occur every year. It most certainly DOES NOT mean a flood of the observed magnitude will only happen once every 1000 years.”

[tron777]

Les what is this common sense thing you mentioned

Something that is sorely lacking in society today. LOL

So I got 0.04" in dodging the two storms this morning. Still think I am just a bit too north for the afternoon redevelopment. Hopefully I am wrong. I think someone in CVG land will see some nice downpours this evening.

I have to agree unfortunately. Looking like CVG to LOU, to LEX kind of thing per the data anyway.

[tron777]

12Z Euro hammers CVG with a lot of rain too later in the week. Thurs, Fri and even Sat morning all look like potential stormy periods. Another 1-2" of rain is certainly doable added on to whatever happens tonight.

[tron777]

83 / 70 at CVG as of 3pm.

[tpweather]

A few showers starting to pop as expected.

[tron777]

I can count about 4 little showers that have popped over the region. So far, they are having a tough time doing anything. But it's only 3:30 and we're not expecting much until the evening timeframe.

[Trevor]

Just got a shower that was small enough that out front you could feel rain and out back, nada

[tron777]

Just got a shower that was small enough that out front you could feel rain and out back, nada

Classic!

[tpweather]

Starting to see the boundary form about halfway between CVG and I-70. Will watch over the next few hours to see if becomes a bigger line of showers and thundershowers.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

Remnant meso vort is evident on visible satellite imagery
moving east across central Ohio attm. Subsidence in its wake
had temporarily stabilized our area. However, with some
clearing and moist southwest low level flow behind it, we will
continue to destabilize through the rest of the afternoon.
There remains some uncertainty though as to the amount of
destabilization and how widespread any redevelopment will be.

The remnant boundary from the overnight convection currently
stretches from southern Illinois into southern Indiana. This
will likely begin to work back to the northeast toward our area
this afternoon and will likely serve as a focus for the
redevelopment. Thus, will allow for the highest pops late this
afternoon into this evening to be across our south. This
activityshould then move south out of our area through the
overnight hours as the mid level short wave swings southeast of
our area.

Assuming storms do develop, sufficient shear will be present
for a severe threat across mainly our south. Damaging winds
remain the main threat although it will still be tough to rule
out an isolated tornado with the potential of some slightly
better low level shear. Heavy rain is also a concern depending
on how organized the storms are able to get. Some of the hi res
models are indicating the potential for some decent swaths of
pcpn across parts of our south through this evening. However, will
hold off on a flood watch for now given the uncertainty of
redevelopment/location.

[tron777]

SE KY Update: 35 now dead, hundreds of folks still missing...