Absolute Vorticity

U50s to L60s this morning with dews near 50... yes please! Couple of beauties coming up here, Clark!

I had 56 this morning for a low! CVG only dropped to 61 I believe. 60 tops.

53 here this morning

CVG officially dropped to 60. ILN 55 and HAO 54

What a gorgeous cobalt blue sky we have this morning! It is going to be a comfortable next 2-3 days across the area. Then we get periods of rain and t-storms. Timing and severity TBD... The ongoing theme thru mid June looks to be continued troughiness with normal to below normal temps and above normal rainfall. A few above normal days will occur obviously but nothing sustained. For those who went low for the 90 degree day contest in June, the first half of the month, odds are in your favor. I know the pool lovers will be dissatisfied but for a lot of folks, this is ideal, myself included.

absolutely LOVE this weather right now. Going to take advantage of it and do something i really hate, I'm going to paint the trim on the front of my house finally and caulk around it all, hopefully when the rain returns my front window leak will not!

Happy belated birthday also to bgoney! Les took up a collection and we bought you this gorgeous weekend, hope it's the right size?

House of Cards wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:45 am absolutely LOVE this weather right now. Going to take advantage of it and do something i really hate, I'm going to paint the trim on the front of my house finally and caulk around it all, hopefully when the rain returns my front window leak will not!

Happy belated birthday also to bgoney! Les took up a collection and we bought you this gorgeous weekend, hope it's the right size?

Thanks so much Dave and in return for your generosity, you get great weather for your painting project!

76 / 45 at CVG right now... 3 hours to go then it's the weekend!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:45 am absolutely LOVE this weather right now. Going to take advantage of it and do something i really hate, I'm going to paint the trim on the front of my house finally and caulk around it all, hopefully when the rain returns my front window leak will not!

Happy belated birthday also to bgoney! Les took up a collection and we bought you this gorgeous weekend, hope it's the right size?

Hey Dave, always great to see you post. Once your done painting my house could use a new coat. Just bring your 30 foot ladder and I will provide the drink of choice. In SC for just 2 days so I will miss out on the beautiful weather. Still muggy and chance of rain down here today though Saturday looks nice before I come home.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:27 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:45 am absolutely LOVE this weather right now. Going to take advantage of it and do something i really hate, I'm going to paint the trim on the front of my house finally and caulk around it all, hopefully when the rain returns my front window leak will not!

Happy belated birthday also to bgoney! Les took up a collection and we bought you this gorgeous weekend, hope it's the right size?

Hey Dave, always great to see you post. Once your done painting my house could use a new coat. Just bring your 30 foot ladder and I will provide the drink of choice. In SC for just 2 days so I will miss out on the beautiful weather. Still muggy and chance of rain down here today though Saturday looks nice before I come home.

So far so good on the pattern here locally Tim! Hope it continues when you are here. It has been top notch for lawns, gardens, and us humans.

Per the Aussies, the MJO is in Phase 7 as of 6/1 headed towards 8. With a Nina, Phase 8 for June. +PNA, -AO, -NAO for the Tellies and well it's a continuation of what we have been seeing for 2022. La Nina rages on...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:33 pm Per the Aussies, the MJO is in Phase 7 as of 6/1 headed towards 8. With a Nina, Phase 8 for June. +PNA, -AO, -NAO for the Tellies and well it's a continuation of what we have been seeing for 2022. La Nina rages on...

Hey Les, the La Nina has been key and something I have never seen last this long. I believe this is also throwing longer term models off because there is just not enough to go on. Hope to get some rain at home next week but also some drier days to keep the lawn in tip top shape. Still need to put my mulch down which I usually do in early June once we have had several days of dry weather.

Les,also the panhandle of Alaska have been in the low 80's the past couple of days and that is some record highs for that part of Alaska. Plus we know about the tropical system affecting southern half of Florida. Pretty wild for early June.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:41 pm Les,also the panhandle of Alaska have been in the low 80's the past couple of days and that is some record highs for that part of Alaska.

Yes... so a -EPO as well. When they are warm, you know, we are going to be cool. That is usually how it works. I think we will see rain chances for 2-3 days next week. Coverage TBD. Right now I like Mon afternoon and evening and Wed afternoon and evening for the best chances. We are kind of in between waves on Tues so much lower chances there.

That dark cloud follows me lol. Severe thunderstorm warning for southeast Greenville county and that is where I am typing this message.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:57 pm That dark cloud follows me lol. Severe thunderstorm warning for southeast Greenville county and that is where I am typing this message.

Looks like that line is headed SE bound right towards your hood Tim! You have similar luck there as you do here.

So far rain with thunder and lightning. Where I live we are on the western edge of strongest line though more storms are breaking out across the area. No doubt the winds have picked up big time. I would say over 30 mph gusts at the moment

Visible showing our gorgeous wx and Tim's T-storm action!

Getting brighter, don't believe it ever got to severe weather in my neighborhood. We were always on the western edge and the storm was moving southeast. Still a nice dose of rain.

12Z Euro has the good chance for rain Mon late in the day into the overnight hours. then dry the rest of the week. It does not have the Wed chance that the GFS shows. The Euro instead shows the front passing thru during an unfavorable time (Wed night into Thurs morning) so no rain of any kind. I am going with the GFS here and my earlier statement of dry thru Sunday. Chance POPS Monday afternoon and evening. Tues very isolated. Wed back to chance POPS again late in the day into Wed night. I think we are dry to round out the next work week.

Models diverge going into next weekend... GFS has a cut off low trying to give us cool, showery weather and the Euro has an MCS missing us to the SW Fri night so dry next weekend but the cut off is lurking over the SE States / S Apps. So we'll see.. either way both models have no big heat coming anytime soon.

Les I agree about Monday and believe that is the best shot for rain. Then timing is going to be key. We are getting into the prime MCS period which is usually early to mid June-mid-July. If we do miss that one next Friday night and it stays to the southwest then we know that keeps the heat southwest of us. So we may get through the 1st half of June without a 90 degree day. Of course we can always get that sneaky one ahead of a cold front but with the vegetation lush you need a stronger cold front to bring up the warm air like we had Wednesday and we know getting strong cold fronts to continue into June and July is never easy but this season we do have a pattern that favors more than usual.

More heavy downpours as we are getting some training of the storms and that makes sense with the front and having a hard time moving through the area.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:14 pm Les I agree about Monday and believe that is the best shot for rain. Then timing is going to be key. We are getting into the prime MCS period which is usually early to mid June-mid-July. If we do miss that one next Friday night and it stays to the southwest then we know that keeps the heat southwest of us. So we may get through the 1st half of June without a 90 degree day. Of course we can always get that sneaky one ahead of a cold front but with the vegetation lush you need a stronger cold front to bring up the warm air like we had Wednesday and we know getting strong cold fronts to continue into June and July is never easy but this season we do have a pattern that favors more than usual.

How long does it keep up? I think thru mid June we are good. Do we get the strong Bermuda high to rear its ugly head or does NW flow continue with the heat and drought out West? If the tropics wake up, I think our pattern will turn hotter. That may not be until sometime in July. I'd love a day like today for my party on 7/2

Les as know the pattern can change and usually there will be some heat that will be involved this summer but is it short or long term is the key. Yes we have heat in the southwest and southern plains at the moment but nothing more than a little above normal at best. Like you mentioned when the tropics come to life and yes we have a system at the moment but later July and August do we see an above normal amount of storms which can help us get some heat in here. Also, the southwest monsoon season which is later July and August can help push the heat further northeast as well if its strong but just wait and see on that as I believe trying to figure out how strong the monsoon season is going to be can be difficult at best.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:48 pm Les as know the pattern can change and usually there will be some heat that will be involved this summer but is it short or long term is the key. Yes we have heat in the southwest and southern plains at the moment but nothing more than a little above normal at best. Like you mentioned when the tropics come to life and yes we have a system at the moment but later July and August do we see an above normal amount of storms which can help us get some heat in here. Also, the southwest monsoon season which is later July and August can help push the heat further northeast as well if its strong but just wait and see on that as I believe trying to figure out how strong the monsoon season is going to be can be difficult at best.

All I can say is... and I think most would agree (accept for Trev LOL) But the longer the current pattern holds the better off wee are going to be in the longer term for heat and drought being less impactful. Hopefully July doesn't turn hot on us.