Absolute Vorticity

0.08" so far here

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:22 pm Not sure yet on severe wx for next week.... timing as usual is key as well as instability.

Currently like next Wednesday for severe weather here IMO. Of course that will change with time.

Mike, I am sure you are referring to the Euro? It's painting a major severe wx event next week from the Plains eastward. Frontal timing for us on this run is Wed around midnight or 1am. Not ideal, would like to see that speed up or slow way down. But something to watch.

0.28" for my current total.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:52 pm Mike, I am sure you are referring to the Euro? It's painting a major severe wx event next week from the Plains eastward. Frontal timing for us on this run is Wed around midnight or 1am. Not ideal, would like to see that speed up or slow way down. But something to watch.

GFS too!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:52 pm Mike, I am sure you are referring to the Euro? It's painting a major severe wx event next week from the Plains eastward. Frontal timing for us on this run is Wed around midnight or 1am. Not ideal, would like to see that speed up or slow way down. But something to watch.

GFS too!

Gotcha... I just hope it isn't our normal, we get the leftovers kinda of thing. So far, that has been the issue or we're just on the outside looking in.

0.35" now...

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:22 pm Today's 12Z GFS is trending towards the Euro solution of a secondary low developing along the front on Good Friday. So we do not turn very cold after the Wed or Thurs frontal passage. Instead a new storm is what we get to deal with for Good Fri into Easter Weekend and then we turn cold. The misery is delayed but not denied so to speak. Not sure yet on severe wx for next week.... timing as usual is key as well as instability.

I know its still several days away, but at this juncture it looks like families, churches (including my own) i.e. etc may have to their egg hunts indoors.

0.34” here

My gauge picked up a tenth for Tues.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10am.... but the fog should start mixing out down over NKY and the Metro shortly. Rain is heading our way for later this morning and that will help to scour out the fog. Front should pass thru around 5pm give or take with a band of possible t-storms associated with it. SE of us is still the best place for an isolated severe storm to occur.

Visibility has greatly improved imby.... Awaiting the rain / possible t-storms incoming for this afternoon.

Great call on the fog Les - I know you mentioned this yesterday. It was pretty dense here.

I have no changes to the current forecast thru the weekend. So moving on to next week... the 70s return, but the rain does as well by Tues and Wed. Still a question as to the frontal zone passage. Models are back to the slower look for the strong front to come thru Thurs afternoon and evening. If that pans out, severe wx would be a concern. Or do we revert back to a Wed potential passage only to have a secondary low come up along the front after that? So still some questions with regards to severe wx Wed or Thurs next week and when does the front pass? Stay tuned... the forecast up until that point is in great shape!

Longer term.... we are still looking at more shots of cool air for the 2nd half of April and even on into the first week of May. We are seeing little changes in the overall pattern and its drivers. MJO still in the CoD and we are still seeing bouts of blocking both in the NAO and EPO domains. Until something up top changes, we're not going to change. Sure, next week for a time the cold dumps out West with a ridge for us, but it's only a temporary thing. We may not even be done with flakes yet in April even after this Sat. Seriously...

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:17 am Great call on the fog Les - I know you mentioned this yesterday. It was pretty dense here.

Thank you Mike! It was here too earlier this morning say around 4 or 5am. The advisory can be dropped at least around here now.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/04/06/stormt ... update-46/

So much for the afternoon timing. I'm getting light rain already do that will kill any severe threat here locally with this system.

Receiving another good soaking today... radar has a nice little mod to hvy pocket that is coming into NKY and the Metro as we speak.

ILN radar appears to be down

Sun and Mon appear to be the only dry days over the next several.

Opening season series forecast for the Redlegs vs Braves in Atlanta looks great!

0.35" from yesterday combined with 0.15" so far today and I am sitting at a half inch event total right now.

Starting to see a nice trend on the 12Z GFS and some other models too...

Showers likely with the upper low Fri afternoon and evening. Then, snow showers early Sat morning and into the afternoon hours. could see rain or sleet mix in at times. FUGLY...

Then we moderate and get wet Tues and Wed with the cold frontal passage by Thurs. Watch for severe wx if frontal timing is Thurs evening!!! Then we turn colder again with another cut off low and crap weather pattern post 4/18 onwards. My vacation is not going to be good to Lake Erie... ugh...

Getting another downpour now! My concerns of dryness have now vanished esp with the long term outlook.

Whoops... my 12Z GFS post was the 6Z run. 12Z has now reverted back to the two low idea again for later next week.