Absolute Vorticity

Good Afternoon and the first mow of the year. Of course I am in Greenville where spring is on high alert. Plenty of blooms and the allergies are horrible. May hit 80 on Thursday down here but 78 is not bad. Starting my tanning early this year lol. Does look to get rather stormy up there starting Sunday and next week looks quite busy. I will be down here until the 12th.

64 at CVG so far... def an overachiever around our hoods today! The sun came out and boy oh boy can it work wonders this time of year. Tomorrow also looking nice before our brief dip on Thurs.

By Sunday/D6, the lead wave will quickly move from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with a front stalling from the Red River to the
OH Valley. Another lower amplitude wave is expected to shift east
across the southern and central Plains, and a low may form near the
boundary which would then allow for a warm front to lift north
across the Arklatex and into the OH Valley Sunday/D6 night. Due to
increasingly low-level moisture across TX and the lower MS Valley,
extensive precipitation is possible Sunday. This fact, along with
the possibly subtle surface wave along the front, decrease
predictability. However, a 40-50 kt low-level jet Sunday/D6 night
along with sufficient instability suggest a severe area will
eventually be added in the region.

By Monday/D7, predictability decreases further as the shortwave
trough ejects rapidly northeastward, and the upper trough becomes
more elongated southwest to northeast. Some degree of severe
potential may still exist at this time with favorable low-level
moisture along the cold front, from the Gulf Coast states across the
TN and OH Valleys.

ILN has me around 70 Sat and our light rain chance Sun and L70s! I may have to cook something outside this weekend lol I was at my Brother's this past weekend and did a pork butt on his new smoker... a huge 12 pounder! It was gone. no leftovers!

18Z NAM maybe caving for Thurs. The snow falls apart now as it moves into the I-70 corridor area so the NAM was on drugs it looks like as usual.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:24 pm ILN has me around 70 Sat and our light rain chance Sun and L70s! I may have to cook something outside this weekend lol I was at my Brother's this past weekend and did a pork butt on his new smoker... a huge 12 pounder! It was gone. no leftovers!

Sounds like Harper, Colton and Cooper had a hefty appetite, too!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:24 pm ILN has me around 70 Sat and our light rain chance Sun and L70s! I may have to cook something outside this weekend lol I was at my Brother's this past weekend and did a pork butt on his new smoker... a huge 12 pounder! It was gone. no leftovers!

Sounds like Harper, Colton and Cooper had a hefty appetite, too!

Harper ate some pork but the boys aren't adventurous yet with their diets. I was there cooking for a crew of people that were at my brother's house helping him with a major plumbing issue with his septic. My cousin and his son were there from Mich, a family friend of ours, my brother, his wife, and myself.

65 at CVG today 5 short of the record of 71 set back in 1976. I hit 66 which is my current temp.

Not much change... Spring today, late winter tomorrow, spring again for Sat. Then we get wet at times Sunday and Monday. Back to late winter again for temps by Tues. Rainfall amounts... they have been bouncing around but I'll go with an avg of around an inch with this next system. That is an event total by the way.

GFS Fantasy Range on and off keeps trying to spin up a snow storm as we approach mid month. I figured we'd have one more chance and this maybe it. We'll keep an eye on it of course. All fantasy at this stage. GEFS has Apps Runner and Cutter solutions showing up. CMC and Euro will get more useful as time goes on since it's just getting into the Day 10 range now.

12Z GFS showing a potential rain to snow then very cold air as we approach mid month. No idea if it'll be a rain to snow deal, all snow, kitchen sink, etc. But I do know that we will see another shot of cold air and in my opinion, it could last 3-5 days. So we'll see if we can work with anything in that time period, I like 3/12 to 3/17 to keep one eye open for one last shot of wintry weather.

12Z CMC tries to get a partial phasing system going around 3/11. 12Z GEFS members today show mainly a cutter solution. Def stronger and ore NW of the Operational GFS run.

2.15" from the 12Z Euro at CVG for Sun / Monday.

Then as we approach Day 10, the Euro has no phase. Low coming out of the Gulf is way out in front of the cold front and cold air coming in on its backside. Need to resolve some timing issues in the next week.

66 as of 3pm, another Beaut, Clark!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:13 pm 66 as of 3pm, another Beaut, Clark!

Sounds nice Les. 77 down here with no humidity. Able to pressure wash the patio today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:13 pm 66 as of 3pm, another Beaut, Clark!

Sounds nice Les. 77 down here with no humidity. Able to pressure wash the patio today.

I love those temps as long as it's not June - Sept (most years)

I will never, ever turn down a snow storm! You all know me better then that! But the sunny 67 I am currently sitting at outside with no wind or humidity, feels oh so good! Spring Fever is here despite this only being temporary.

18Z GFS has a nice event around the 12th and a pretty cold pattern for a while after that.

I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.

Looks great for Sat i.e. with upper 60s for Anderson, IN as my dad gets with his sister to start taking care of some business in helping her downsize.

Currently 52 here in G'ville and progged for around 28 Thurs morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:24 pm ILN has me around 70 Sat and our light rain chance Sun and L70s! I may have to cook something outside this weekend lol I was at my Brother's this past weekend and did a pork butt on his new smoker... a huge 12 pounder! It was gone. no leftovers!

How long to cook that pork butt? 12 pounds sounds like an earrrrrrrly morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:57 pm I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.

Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 8:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:24 pm ILN has me around 70 Sat and our light rain chance Sun and L70s! I may have to cook something outside this weekend lol I was at my Brother's this past weekend and did a pork butt on his new smoker... a huge 12 pounder! It was gone. no leftovers!

How long to cook that pork butt? 12 pounds sounds like an earrrrrrrly morning.

I cheated and did it slowly in the oven for a few hours the night before.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:57 pm I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.

Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino


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What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino. I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter. I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.