Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:19 pm
18Z GFS has the 2 low idea back. So close to a hit on Thurs. Snow over Indiana, NW of Cincinnati.
That's a start!
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February 2022 Weather Discussion
Page 3 of 32
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:31 pm
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:58 am
This section is going to be very busy in the coming days. Yesterday we talked about chances of having just 1 low come through or maybe 2 or 3. Will talk about that later but the one thing that caught my eye was the strongest high of the season dropping down into the USA. I believe I saw 1058 on one map. If that is true we are probably talking about the coldest shot of the year once it arrives. Much more on the pattern change and lets see if this can finally get us into the winter weather many of the folks enjoy.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:00 am
A very cold and wintry pattern looks to continue for early Feb. Yes we warm to the 40s and 50s early next week but it is short lived. As Bgoney mentioned in the Jan thread, the look for next week is slowly getting colder. Rain / snow line for Wed's low is not far from us at all. Still a cold rain, but ice and snow are lurking. We all change to snow on Thurs per 0Z GFS and the 6Z run develops the second low too and up's the wintry threat on Thurs per the 2 low idea.
The OP Euro has a major OV winter storm with the rain / snow line S of I-70, almost to the river. That is a hair away from a monster winter storm for everyone on that run. Wow! If that arctic high is real and almost to 1050 MB, high 1040s, we can do this folks! The CMC is the warmest model not playing ball. Has a cutter for Low #1.
Ensemble support? Yes. GEFS are a mix of rainy and wintry solutions still, which you would expect this far away. That was a major jump for the Euro though. It has been showing rain with both lows. Now it's the coldest of the bunch.
EPS is also supportive, showing a gradient pattern and a much more amplified look. Very interesting...
The OP Euro has a major OV winter storm with the rain / snow line S of I-70, almost to the river. That is a hair away from a monster winter storm for everyone on that run. Wow! If that arctic high is real and almost to 1050 MB, high 1040s, we can do this folks! The CMC is the warmest model not playing ball. Has a cutter for Low #1.
Ensemble support? Yes. GEFS are a mix of rainy and wintry solutions still, which you would expect this far away. That was a major jump for the Euro though. It has been showing rain with both lows. Now it's the coldest of the bunch.
EPS is also supportive, showing a gradient pattern and a much more amplified look. Very interesting...Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:11 am
Probably too early to post text data cause you know it will change, but here is the Euro for CVG. A cold rain, ice / sleet then snow. So close to a nice one!
Snow, sleet, and frz rain for Dayton. What a mess there if correct.
This is not fantasy range anymore. Days 5-6 range. Can we all get rain only? Sure, but let's see today and over the weekend if that arctic high plays more of a role. If so, we gonna have some fun next week on here. 
Code: Select all
TUE 18Z 01-FEB 6.2 3.5 1019 89 101 0.07 561 545
WED 00Z 02-FEB 3.0 1.5 1021 99 99 0.13 561 543
WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.2 -0.7 1024 96 100 0.21 561 541
WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.0 -1.4 1025 92 100 0.30 560 540
WED 18Z 02-FEB -0.2 -0.9 1022 91 100 0.33 558 541
THU 00Z 03-FEB -0.5 1.6 1017 94 99 0.34 558 544
THU 06Z 03-FEB -0.5 3.9 1014 93 96 0.28 556 545
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.1 3.4 1013 90 68 0.11 554 543
THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.4 1.2 1009 85 96 0.26 548 541
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -9.7 -11.3 1016 82 100 0.39 540 527
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.0 -14.6 1026 80 89 0.06 535 515
Code: Select all
TUE 18Z 01-FEB 6.5 3.4 1018 83 96 0.02 559 544
WED 00Z 02-FEB 3.4 0.9 1021 97 92 0.16 559 542
WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.0 -2.1 1025 85 100 0.03 559 539
WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.3 -3.5 1027 91 99 0.19 558 537
WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.2 -3.3 1024 90 100 0.25 557 538
THU 00Z 03-FEB -3.0 -1.0 1020 92 100 0.32 556 541
THU 06Z 03-FEB -2.9 1.2 1016 93 97 0.22 555 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.4 1.3 1015 90 91 0.11 553 541
THU 18Z 03-FEB -7.0 -0.4 1012 88 98 0.16 548 539
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -11.0 -10.2 1014 86 101 0.45 539 529
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -13.3 -13.9 1025 80 91 0.08 533 515
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:59 am
I know every month is noted for something but I believe from this moment on that February is Snow in the Ohio Valley month.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:12 am
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:22 am
EPS for the OV really sent the probabilities higher for everything, icing event , to big snows, Lexington to Indy corridor is going to be a forecast headache for sure
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:25 am
I am ready for the headache. Going to be many changes on the models over the next few days. I have my advil ready and loaded though.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:45 am
Gents... if that arctic high scenario is real from the Euro and EPS overnight runs, then all modes of precip are on the table for sure. We've got 2-3 days of monitoring the trends before we can lock this one down a bit more.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:49 am
Les you can already see where western and central Canada has a quick warm up this weekend but turns very cold just as quickly. How far southeast will that cold make it here next week. Still believe we have the warm up at first but nothing like models showed the past couple of days.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:45 amGents... if that arctic high scenario is real from the Euro and EPS overnight runs, then all modes of precip are on the table for sure. We've got 2-3 days of monitoring the trends before we can lock this one down a bit more.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:54 am
I can still see one day of the 50s on Tuesday ahead of this thing, but otherwise 40s and if the Euro is right, the 30s. (Talking on Wed) Falling temps on Thursday.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:49 amLes you can already see where western and central Canada has a quick warm up this weekend but turns very cold just as quickly. How far southeast will that cold make it here next week. Still believe we have the warm up at first but nothing like models showed the past couple of days.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:45 amGents... if that arctic high scenario is real from the Euro and EPS overnight runs, then all modes of precip are on the table for sure. We've got 2-3 days of monitoring the trends before we can lock this one down a bit more.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:59 am
Les, if you get the opportunity could you please post the euro text data for HAO?
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:10 am
Code: Select all
TUE 18Z 01-FEB 6.3 3.4 1018 88 99 0.05 560 545
WED 00Z 02-FEB 3.0 1.2 1021 98 98 0.23 560 543
WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.9 -1.7 1025 87 100 0.09 560 541
WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.3 -2.4 1026 90 100 0.24 559 539
WED 18Z 02-FEB -0.7 -2.0 1023 89 100 0.28 558 540
THU 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 0.4 1018 93 99 0.32 557 543
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.4 2.9 1015 91 99 0.21 556 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.9 2.6 1014 89 72 0.10 553 542
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.6 0.4 1010 86 96 0.22 548 540
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -10.1 -11.0 1016 81 101 0.42 539 527
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.3 -14.4 1026 79 89 0.07 534 515
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:15 am
Thank you.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:10 amCode: Select all
TUE 18Z 01-FEB 6.3 3.4 1018 88 99 0.05 560 545 WED 00Z 02-FEB 3.0 1.2 1021 98 98 0.23 560 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.9 -1.7 1025 87 100 0.09 560 541 WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.3 -2.4 1026 90 100 0.24 559 539 WED 18Z 02-FEB -0.7 -2.0 1023 89 100 0.28 558 540 THU 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 0.4 1018 93 99 0.32 557 543 THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.4 2.9 1015 91 99 0.21 556 544 THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.9 2.6 1014 89 72 0.10 553 542 THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.6 0.4 1010 86 96 0.22 548 540 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -10.1 -11.0 1016 81 101 0.42 539 527 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.3 -14.4 1026 79 89 0.07 534 515
If I am reading this right, rain, snow, freezing rain, snow?
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:20 am
Yep. Pretty much a kitchen sink event.Spacejunk wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:15 amThank you.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:10 amCode: Select all
TUE 18Z 01-FEB 6.3 3.4 1018 88 99 0.05 560 545 WED 00Z 02-FEB 3.0 1.2 1021 98 98 0.23 560 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 0.9 -1.7 1025 87 100 0.09 560 541 WED 12Z 02-FEB -1.3 -2.4 1026 90 100 0.24 559 539 WED 18Z 02-FEB -0.7 -2.0 1023 89 100 0.28 558 540 THU 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 0.4 1018 93 99 0.32 557 543 THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.4 2.9 1015 91 99 0.21 556 544 THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.9 2.6 1014 89 72 0.10 553 542 THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.6 0.4 1010 86 96 0.22 548 540 FRI 00Z 04-FEB -10.1 -11.0 1016 81 101 0.42 539 527 FRI 06Z 04-FEB -12.3 -14.4 1026 79 89 0.07 534 515
If I am reading this right, rain, snow, freezing rain, snow?
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:22 am
12Z GFS is not as cold as the Euro for next week but a tad colder then 6Z run. We'll take it. We do changeover to snow Thurs afternoon region wide.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:30 am
The gfs shows 2 waves with its latest run but again way to early as this will change quite often.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:20 pm
Overall pattern on the 12Z GFS is nice for wintry weather for the 1st half of Feb. All modes of precip type possible. Today's fun is a teaser to what is coming...
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:43 pm
12Z CMC is a bit colder then 0Z tracking the low thru Central IN. Still warmest model.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:31 pm
12Z Euro coming in a little warmer. It is stronger on this run with the energy and an earlier phase. Need the trough to come in a bit more flat like it did on the 0Z run for a better chance of frozen precip next week.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:47 pm
Les going to see several changes and really not until the big storm on the northeast coast moves away before models settle down imo. Most of the time with this set up you have at least 2 waves of low pressure. Is it possible to have 1 and sure its possible but usually not the outcome that we see with this set up.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:52 pm
I think we need the two low idea in order to succeed. One low idea is going to mean a stronger storm and it's all rain maybe ending as some flakes. Two low idea gives the colder air time to return for that second piece to work with.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:47 pm Les going to see several changes and really not until the big storm on the northeast coast moves away before models settle down imo. Most of the time with this set up you have at least 2 waves of low pressure. Is it possible to have 1 and sure its possible but usually not the outcome that we see with this set up.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:55 pm
18Z GFS has rain Wed but it changes to ice / snow on Thurs with the second low. 0.75" cold sector precip
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:01 pm
More and more GEFS members bringing on the FZR/Sleet scenario for late Wed into Thursday