Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:01 pm
That is a nice write up by them and seems reasonable. As with all snow forecasts yes there will be a bust both on the low and high side
wed2.PNG
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
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Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:35 pm
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:04 pm
0.14" QPF from the 18Z GFS at CVG. Will post a similar looking map probably to Bgoneys later.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:19 pm
Uncle Les's Final Call for the event:
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:33 pm
LOU and JKL offices have a winter weather advisory out for this event for anywhere from 1-4" of snow. ILN so far just an HWO along and SE of I-71. I imagine an advisory will come out tonight for at least South / East counties. We'll see! Always on the cut off in our forecast area. 
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:31 pm
KYZ094>100-OHZ079-081-082-088-190930-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0004.220120T0000Z-220120T1200Z/
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Brown-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden,
Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet,
Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Georgetown, Mount Orab,
West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
830 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of South Central and Southwest Ohio and
Northeast and Northern Kentucky.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:28 pm
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:40 pm
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:09 pm
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:37 am
yeah it was awful even now there is a layer of ice underneath about a half inch of snow that fell during yesterdays snow showers. the good thing is i use a blade and plow, if all you had is a snowblower you would be kind of screwed because it dont want to throw that stuff and it will get choked up. and if you had nothing but a shovel, well then you are really screwed .
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:57 am
OK I am trying to catch up. I saw some posts concerning snow on Saturday and Greenville. Was that Greenville, OH? When Saturday if I read correctly?
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:21 am
Greenville, SC - Tim's other hood.
There is a possible weekend event for the Mid ATL, SE CONUS and New England.Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:22 am
Good morning all and no changes to my call. From the boys:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will quickly shift southeast into the forecast
area this afternoon. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will
tap into relatively warm, moist air from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Temperatures will rise well into the 40s in most
locations. At the same time, a mid- level disturbance will bring
precipitation to northern Kentucky into south central Ohio by
the afternoon hours. This precipitation will start as rain. The
front will drop through the forecast area by late afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Cold air advection behind the front will continue through the
evening with temperatures falling quickly through the 30s. These
falling temperatures lead to a difficult snowfall forecast in
the south, as event- total amounts will depend heavily on exact
transition time from rain to snow. Went heavy on the high-
resolution guidance for PoPs. Forecast sounding analysis shows
good lift across the DGZ... though it is in a somewhat shallow
layer. Based on current temperature and QPF grids, forecast
yields 1-2" snowfall totals in the south over a short span from
this evening until just after midnight. Depending on mesoscale
banding, which is a clear possibility with frontogenetical
forcing, there may be local amounts near 3 inches in the far
southeast with the highest QPF. Low temperatures will fall into
the mid to upper teens by Thursday morning.
For Thursday, cold dry air will allow some sunshine to appear
through the day. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to
mid 20s.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will quickly shift southeast into the forecast
area this afternoon. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will
tap into relatively warm, moist air from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Temperatures will rise well into the 40s in most
locations. At the same time, a mid- level disturbance will bring
precipitation to northern Kentucky into south central Ohio by
the afternoon hours. This precipitation will start as rain. The
front will drop through the forecast area by late afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Cold air advection behind the front will continue through the
evening with temperatures falling quickly through the 30s. These
falling temperatures lead to a difficult snowfall forecast in
the south, as event- total amounts will depend heavily on exact
transition time from rain to snow. Went heavy on the high-
resolution guidance for PoPs. Forecast sounding analysis shows
good lift across the DGZ... though it is in a somewhat shallow
layer. Based on current temperature and QPF grids, forecast
yields 1-2" snowfall totals in the south over a short span from
this evening until just after midnight. Depending on mesoscale
banding, which is a clear possibility with frontogenetical
forcing, there may be local amounts near 3 inches in the far
southeast with the highest QPF. Low temperatures will fall into
the mid to upper teens by Thursday morning.
For Thursday, cold dry air will allow some sunshine to appear
through the day. Temperatures will struggle to exceed the low to
mid 20s.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:26 am
We should get up into the mid 40s today S of the river. Already in the U30s now. Rain comes in this afternoon probably after 2pm then change to snow after 5pm with issues (for those that see snow) probably coming after 7pm. Hopefully the timing will work like that for the PM commute. We'll have to do some now casting to see how far north it snows. Cut off is of course close to the river if not just north of it. As usual, the further south you go, the better with this one.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:46 am
Good Morning Les and everything seems on track and again like you mentioned nowcast will start to go into affect probably after 2-3pm as cold air starts to enter the area.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:10 am
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:18 am
Yea , no changes to map posted yesterday. Please keep in mind any max number is best case scenario
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:20 am
Good morning Tim! Right on! Already seeing showers increasing over TN, SKY, NE AR, and AL. Like seeing the moisture already developing this morning. Mid to U30s already over St. Louis ILL and into Western IN as the big high starts to drop in from Canada to deliver the colder air. We'll see where the two collide later today.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:54 am
Ha Ha yeah I get that feeling too! Unfortunately we are on the right edge of a snowless dome stretching back into Indiana where some folks there have barely seen a flake of snow this winter thus far. Our time will come!!
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:56 am
I'm thankful for my seasonal total to be around the 3" mark. 2.4" at CVG officially. It's terrible but better then a zero® I think KIND is still under an inch on the season, like 0.5" or something horrible like that?
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:06 am
Yeah KIND officially has only had 0.3" snow so far this winter. As you said at least we got a couple inches from that last system!
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:19 am
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:24 am
9Z SREF looks good for the ongoing call... a 2" mean at LOU and 4" for LEX. About an inch at CVG and a half inch for the northern Cincy burbs.
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:40 am
Re: Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:42 am