Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:23 am Heading into the last 9 days of July and we will end up below normal temp wise and especially for daily highs. The rainfall and higher humidity has kept overnight lows somewhat higher but looks like we end up between 2 and 3 degrees below normal which I love.

The mornings this week have been so refreshing and relatively comfortable during the day for the height of summer heat.

I think we're in a good spot for the ring of fire chances and NW flow starting late weekend and into next week for the region. Not everday of course but periodic 30 to 50% chances to end the month.

Going forward into August , a winter time like 500mb pattern looks to continue with a -EPO , -Nao, +PNA and a Low pressure vortex over Hudson bay to boot should keep any extended heat at bay for the OV and most likely keep a NW flow as the dominant pattern

I agree Bgoney and yes we have heard about the heat out west and yes its been hot but what about much of Texas well below normal. Never hear both sides in the media. Sure we will have some hot days next month and when the tropics get going that almost always happens but with the lush vegetation that will hamper on daytime highs though nighttime lows will remain a little milder. Getting into fall drier ground will bring cooler morning temps but at this point not expecting a really dry ground unless for some reason we get little to no rain next month.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:23 am Heading into the last 9 days of July and we will end up below normal temp wise and especially for daily highs. The rainfall and higher humidity has kept overnight lows somewhat higher but looks like we end up between 2 and 3 degrees below normal which I love.

Yeah my 90 degree contest for July is going down in flames.....well no flames since it will be so cool! LOL

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:16 am Lol, Those air quality suggestions are a hoot

Ride a bike when air is unhealthy to breathe.....that makes a lot of sense!

Good morning all. Windy yesterday 4 and 5 footers so only got half a day in. Day 1 of the NTC walleye tournament here in Oscoda Michigan so if you're watching the weigh in online around 2:30 or so this afternoon, cheer on boat numbers 22 and 25 please.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:38 am Good morning all. Windy yesterday 4 and 5 footers so only got half a day in. Day 1 of the NTC walleye tournament here in Oscoda Michigan so if you're watching the weigh in online around 2:30 or so this afternoon, cheer on boat numbers 22 and 25 please.

Hi Les,

Here's hoping that you and your boat group(s) fared well, Bro!!

I did see the Tigers / Rangers game today and what a hot roll they're on currently as they've now SWEPT twice in a row owning the Twinkies and Rangers!!

Saw on the news today, footage of a male fan at yesterday afternoon's Redlegs game holding his cellphone and at the same time going for a foul ball, as a result the ball FOULED UP his cellphone!

Currently 73 here in Greenville.

One more day brings an end of a perfect week of summer weather. Sunday has been advertised as the best rain chance for a while now, I'll go 50% scattered t-showers. Rest of next week about a 30 % chance of isolated rain chances , about as normal late July rain chances as you'll see.

Farmers across Brazil are reporting widespread crop loss due to severe frosts affecting the country over the past 3 weeks. After several destructive cold waves, another blast is expected over the weekend, July 24 and 25, followed by yet another at the end of the month.

The new week has begun with the already-shattered corn market in Brazil enduring yet another blow as a new cold wave swept the center-south of Brazil, bringing frosts to corn-producing states and raising fresh concerns about export volumes and contract breaches, Agricensus reports.

"It is going to be a historic crop loss," Daniele Siqueira from local consultancy Agrural told Agricensus.

On Monday, July 19, frosts hit parts of the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, with late-planted corn areas likely affected.

The cold wave reached its peak on Tuesday, July 20 with forecasts showing potential fresh frosts in the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais.

According to a report by Marco Antonio dos Santos of Rural Clima, Tuesday's frost hit crops including sugar cane, coffee, and orange. Coffee brokers said this frost was stronger than the last one.

"Output losses will be extremely large across all producing states apart from Mato Grosso… Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul will have no export capacity whatsoever," Siqueira said.


"The situation is so dramatic that there will not be any corn left in the market in September and the country will need to import much more from Argentina," Victor Martins from Hedgepoint Global Markets said.

According to Soybean and Corn Advisor president Dr. Michael Cordonnier, temperatures in southern Brazil dipped below freezing three weeks ago and it’s expected to be even colder this week.

"The coldest in 20 years in some of these areas. And I like to tell people that 20 years ago there was not much Safrinha corn. And now that crop accounts for three-quarters of all of Brazil’s corn production."

Cordonnier told Brownfield the Brazilian frost events are the equivalent of the U.S. Corn Belt experiencing three nights below freezing in mid-July.

Good Morning and another nice day for late July. The models are trying to bring some heat next week but will it be short-lived. The haze from some of the fires in the west is probably keeping us a degree or two cooler than what you would expect with this pattern. Love summers like this and yes its going to get humid like every summer but seeing the vegetation green keeps me in a better mood. Sunday is the best shot of rain but not where its a rain out and some folks may miss out

Current radar showing some thunderstorms in the Ft Wayne area. Models seem to be initializing this too far north with this activity so will be curious to see if this may impact at least some of the Columbus metro this afternoon (albeit in a weakening phase).

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:41 am Current radar showing some thunderstorms in the Ft Wayne area. Models seem to be initializing this too far north with this activity so will be curious to see if this may impact at least some of the Columbus metro this afternoon (albeit in a weakening phase).

Only a few sprinkles in my part of Columbus. Not even enough to wet the pavement.

Another pool day tomorrow, Sunday a weakening line of scattered hit/ miss showers in the morning , and more hit/miss later in afternoon.

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Good evening all... A tough bite for us in the tournament but I will be traveling home tomorrow. Looks hot when I come back. Lovely....

Typical Dog days of summer starting today and running most of next week. That means IMO, upper 80s/low 90s , humid , slim chances of isolated T-storms . Fear not, the winter type blocking at 500mb returns to start Aug. Ensembles still showing a Hudson Bay vortex with blocking over the top, so periodic cool fronts should make it into the region starting in August. Clues to late fall early winter pattern??????

For those that can't get enough of a lawn mowing fix, your dreams have been answered

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I'm back! Anyone miss me? Anyone glad they had a break from me? Anyway a warm one today. 86 imby CVG Could use some rain. Lawn looks fine, needs mowed, but the plants and flowers, a few looked crispy thanks to no rain at all after I left. Whatcha gonna do? 90% of the vegetables will make it. Looks like some contest days coming up Sun - Thurs with U80s and L90s forecast. Best chance of rain looks to be Sun then again Fri of next week with most Domes holding otherwise. Spotty chances.

I like Bgoney's -EPO and and winter time pattern posts and also when he mentioned is this a possible clue into Fall and early winter? We'll see how long it can hold. There's a lot of talk of second year Nina's and since 1950 we do not have very many of them for the following winter season. This year 2021 into 2022 is likely to be one of those years. So here you go. I am too tired to look tonight so someone else can look up temps, snowfall stats, etc.

List of back to back Nina winters since 1950:

1954-1955
1955-1956

1970-1971
1971-1972

1974-1975
1975-1976

1998-1999
1999-2000

2007-2008
2008-2009

2016-2017
2017-2018

2020-2021
2021-2022 ?

Welcome back, Les!

Good Morning and not sure how much in the way of showers and thundershowers will develop later today. Have a few this morning but not heavy at all. Are we finally seeing changes that will bring the hot weather into the area for August. The southwest USA is in their monsoon season and it looks to be a rather strong one this year and one they truly need. If this happens the heat must go somewhere and that is usually eastward into the central and southern plains and also into our area. Will we finally get that stretch of 90 degree days plus the humidity will be high as well. Only time will tell but at least I see signs of an extended period of heat and humidity. No doubt the grass is growing somewhat slower and will do that on Monday and then I may get into the once a week or maybe even once every 10 days.

Got lucky with the small line this morning and took the brunt , 1.25" in 40 minutes, best Thunder and lightning show of the summer . Electric out AGAIN

Tim , I cut for only the second time this month a couple days ago