Absolute Vorticity

For Sunday, that is a nice deform band on the Euro , really strengthening that low over SE Ohio and WV. 990 MB wow! Could certainly see an inch to isolated 2". I am digging that call for Sunday on grassy areas, car tops etc. If the rate is heavy enough and depending on duration, will dictate the impacts to roads. Very windy tomorrow, gusts 30+ mph likely!

The deal for Sunday is the deform band in the morning then LES in isolated areas for the afternoon and evening. Then it's over and we await our fate for next week as the arctic air settles in.

For next week, 0.33" from the 12Z Euro so not as good as 6Z but still decent with high snow to liquid ratios.

CVG

I am playing it safe and waiting until tomorrow for a possible thread starter. Main period of interest is Wed so that is still at Day 5 due to the slower timing. That's ok. A slower storm overall can mean more snow too. Big difference between the last Euro run and this one was when the low closed off. 6 hours sooner on 6Z Euro versus 12Z and it was also further south too.

New updated rainfall total at CVG is 0.56" as of 1pm. We are in a break now and will be until later this afternoon and evening when the rain, heavy at times, returns. SLP of 1008 MB is down in AR getting its act together now.

.60 in the bucket here so far

...DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

The combination of low level moisture and light winds will be
favorable for fog development this afternoon. The fog...possibly
dense at times...will last at least into this evening before some
improvement occurs as a deepening area of low pressure ripples
northeast through the region.

Motorists should expected visibilities to lower this afternoon
with low visibilities continuing into this evening. Visibility
may be reduced to a quarter mile or less at times. Be prepared to
slow down, allow extra time to reach your destination, and keep
your low beam headlights on.

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.

* WHERE...The following counties, in southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland, the following counties, in Kentucky,
Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis,
Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties,
in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking,
Pike, Ross and Scioto.

* WHEN...Through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Two to four inches of rain is forecast with locally higher
amounts possible.

Got any thoughts on next week Trev? Talk to me goose, talk to me!

We are lucky that this thing stalled where it did to save most of our CWA from those heavier totals. Some may stay under that 2" mark now. We'll see. Track of low is key, if it is SE of us then we are saved from t-storms and very heavy totals.

700 MB frontogenic forcing per SPC meso analysis is increasing over SW Indy so ahead of that low in AR as the rain begins surging back northward from that area. No doubt, heavy rain is coming for all, it's just that we can rule out those extreme and higher end totals IMO thanks to the break and where the front stalled out at. For max totals SKY is the place to place to be and in TN.

12Z EPS mean remains unchanged, around 4" for next week.

HRRR suggests some thunder snow in the morning? Like huh? Say what?

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 1:41 pm HRRR suggests some thunder snow in the morning? Like huh? Say what?


Thunder Snow.jpg

If I remember correctly, you're still waiting to see thunder snow for the first time. Tomorrow could be your day!

The UKMet is coming in with a little different solution than the other models. Look how strong the upper low is and how much farther north into Ohio the heavy snow is compared to the other models. This is probably an outlier, but at 4-5 days out it's, at least, worth mentioning.

NWS just changed the forecast for Oxtown, 1-2 tonight and 1-3 tomorrow? That would be a pleasent surprise.

18Z HRRR has us ripping between 8-10am tomorrow morning. That will be our time to shine with the deform band.

dce wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 2:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 1:41 pm HRRR suggests some thunder snow in the morning? Like huh? Say what?


Thunder Snow.jpg

If I remember correctly, you're still waiting to see thunder snow for the first time. Tomorrow could be your day!

I've had it once or twice. Been a long time though!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 2:26 pm 18Z HRRR has us ripping between 8-10am tomorrow morning. That will be our time to shine with the deform band.

Just in time for Sunday church services.

Thetis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 2:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 2:26 pm 18Z HRRR has us ripping between 8-10am tomorrow morning. That will be our time to shine with the deform band.

Just in time for Sunday church services.

Exactly! I am going to mass this evening as a result.

ALERT: WWA now for 1-3" 7am Sunday to 7pm Sun night! Here we go!



...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Precipitation may start out briefly as a
wintry mix. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. Winds
gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and
southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

NZ050-058-059-OHZ034-035-042-043-060-160500-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0011.250216T0900Z-250217T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Preble-
Including the cities of Coldwater, Eaton, Liberty, Richmond,
Wapakoneta, Greenville, Celina, Sidney, Camden, Minster, St.
Marys, New Bremen, Connersville, and West College Corner
242 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Indiana, Fayette, Union, and Wayne Counties. In Ohio,
Auglaize, Darke, Mercer, Preble, and Shelby Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0011.250216T1200Z-250217T0000Z/
Hardin-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Montgomery-
Greene-
Including the cities of Marysville, Urbana, Bellefontaine, Xenia,
Springfield, Downtown Dayton, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Tipp City,
Troy, Kettering, Ada, Delaware, Piqua, and Kenton
242 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Precipitation may start out briefly as a
wintry mix. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. Winds
gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Delaware, Union, Champaign, Clark, Greene, Hardin, Logan,
Miami, and Montgomery Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 3:13 pm

Thetis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 2:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 2:26 pm 18Z HRRR has us ripping between 8-10am tomorrow morning. That will be our time to shine with the deform band.

Just in time for Sunday church services.

Exactly! I am going to mass this evening as a result.

Wise forethought.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 1:31 pm We are lucky that this thing stalled where it did to save most of our CWA from those heavier totals. Some may stay under that 2" mark now. We'll see. Track of low is key, if it is SE of us then we are saved from t-storms and very heavy totals.

Both the 18Z HRRR and the 18Z NAM keep the low south and southeast of the greater Cincinnati area.

Thetis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 3:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 1:31 pm We are lucky that this thing stalled where it did to save most of our CWA from those heavier totals. Some may stay under that 2" mark now. We'll see. Track of low is key, if it is SE of us then we are saved from t-storms and very heavy totals.

Both the 18Z HRRR and the 18Z NAM keep the low south and southeast of the greater Cincinnati area.

We can do a couple of inches in 2-3 hours time. The rates should be very good!