mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 1:21 pm
I didn't like seeing the CMC go south. Has been holding steady until the Euro started south. I'm sure the GFS is wrong, but what do I know?
If you take a model blend, we are still looking pretty good IMO. UKMET is too far south and the GFS is too far north. I think the Canadian models (CMC and RGEM) are in the middle which is good. The area of concern right now for getting the shaft in my mind is our I-70 Crew. This is just my opinion. I could be wrong as well.
Les watching all the modeling but really going with history and gut feeling….im not buying the 70 north shift and getting shafted….i think up here we are going to score big. All area Mets near and around Lima area are calling for 5-8 inches already…..call me naive but my gut tells me otherwise
The SREF and GFS agree. We have about 24 more hours to go IMO before we can get this thing better nailed down.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:41 pm
by tron777
kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:36 pm
BAM Wx just did a FB live video that I found to be a good discussion/explanation of the difference in models if anyone is interested.
I cannot post the link right now, but I was watching a little of it on YouTube. If you can, please post the actual youtube video link in here and then folks can watch it right from your forum post.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:31 pm
Is the 15Z SREF out yet? Could someone check the plumes and report in. Thanks!
I was just about to post. Stayed pretty much the same.
IMG_1239.png
Good deal! Thank you!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:43 pm
by CINCINNATI01
I've noticed these models giving us big amounts of snow at a 10 to 1 ratio is it possible we get better ratios than that
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:47 pm
by tron777
CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:43 pm
I've noticed these models giving us big amounts of snow at a 10 to 1 ratio is it possible we get better ratios than that
Some of that is sleet contamination so be careful when using those maps. Probably over inflated. But to answer the snow ratio question, yes. 12:1 if not 15:1 at times is possible since we should remain in the 20s at the surface for this event.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:52 pm
by tron777
18Z NAM is off and running. I will be able to view that with you once I get home. Leaving work in like 7 or 8 mins. I will be checking the text data for some of the other models as well. Keep the discussion going guys!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:55 pm
by tpweather
My thought process was the first say 2-4 hours we have a 12-1 ratio but then drop to between 8-1 and 10-1 then by time we get to Monday on the back end we may raise up again to 12-1 or so. Like Les mentioned sleet can really mess up totals and that is the part I am not sure on.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:55 pm
by tron777
I am also curious to see how ILN updates their thinking as well in the next hour or so.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:57 pm
by kywthrluvr
Here is link to BAM wx live from earlier.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:04 pm
by Phr0z3n
One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:04 pm
by mainevilleweather
I like this stage of the storm because we get more model updates!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:05 pm
by mainevilleweather
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:04 pm
One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker
What does this mean exactly?
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
