January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

GEFs are still way south

Big time! 18Z run is like in the Gulf lol How much for Cuba?

[tpweather]

Good Evening and just a nice chill in the air today. Models still having problems and they always have problems with true arctic fronts and one reason getting the cross flow directly out of the arctic is not common. Sure we get the cold out of northwest Canada often and also out of northeast Canada which had happened earlier this season but usually its later in winter when we see that happen.

Concerning the arctic front and we need to watch this later Saturday and Sunday. If this gets held up near the mountains then many times you will see a piece of energy run up the front before the front makes it across the mountains. Are we in the best place for this and no but we will be close imo. Southeastern Kentucky is in a decent shot and would be no surprise to see them have a winter weather advisory before the weekend is over.

Next week and once the arctic front gets near the GOM watch out for a storm to develop. Matter of fact I believe 2 storms next week and one with the cold interacting with the warm GOM and that temp difference is always a good sign of a storm to develop quickly. Second later in the week warmer moist air will try and push back northeast from Texas and if we have the correct flow out of the GOM that can lead to a storm that heads northeast towards the Ohio Valley.

Impacts and the first one early next week will probably stay south of us but it does not take much moisture to flow over the cold air to produce some light snow further north than models show at the moment. The second system is one that should develop as the cold air is trying to retreat from the southern plains and this one I believe could be a big snow and ice maker for many folks. Most likely here snow would be the call but the southern Ohio Valley into the Tn Valley could be quite the ice storm.

That is my take at the moment and will watch the trends on the models the next two days. Still expect some fog on Friday and like Les mentioned is the wind and how strong will that become. Believe at least until early afternoon a good chance before there is enough mixing of the air and then of course later the rain will arrive. Temps on Friday will struggle during the day to get much above 35 or so but as the night wears on expect temps closer to 40 until the front arrives on Saturday.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 23, DAY 21 and CMH 18 on Wed. For extreme morning lows, CVG had 1 above, DAY -1 and CMH 4 above.

[tron777]

Good morning! Tim's post has us covered nicely over the next few days. Before I talk about next week, don't forget about the light snow chance this morning es for our northern posters. A few slick spots up that way are possible.

So okay... we know it'll be very cold early next week. The GFS has abandoned the southern Us snow storm idea and instead gives us one for Thurs and Fri of next week January 23-24th. CMC still has the southern US snow early next week so no storm for us. The Euro has a mini version of the 23-24th event so we will need to start watching the ensemble guidance thru this weekend to see if this is a GFS pipe dream or not. For now, there is not much of a sign on the GEFS and the EPS has something but it's way south.

[Bgoney]

I still like the last 7 days of the month holding promise for a return flow for our region . I think models are rushing that a couple days to soon

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. As you can tell my ideals of what may happen differs from the models. Over the years true cross polar air masses mess with the models and each run and you can see that with the gfs. I will look later today and Friday and see how the models are looking but at the time I feel confident of how this plays out and will feel better once the models figure this pattern out. So at the end of the day its a man vs model lol. What happens and we have seen this many times is the outcome tends to be somewhere in the middle but what does that middle look like.

[tron777]

I still like the last 7 days of the month holding promise for a return flow for our region . I think models are rushing that a couple days to soon

There is a weak signal around the 28th too so if the 23-24th idea fails, around the 28th is probably the next period to watch.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. As you can tell my ideals of what may happen differs from the models. Over the years true cross polar air masses mess with the models and each run and you can see that with the gfs. I will look later today and Friday and see how the models are looking but at the time I feel confident of how this plays out and will feel better once the models figure this pattern out. So at the end of the day its a man vs model lol. What happens and we have seen this many times is the outcome tends to be somewhere in the middle but what does that middle look like.

Good morning Tim. I have said for years that if you blend our thoughts together (you doing what you do and me doing what I do) then you'd get one hell of a good forecaster. I'm confident on warming up and getting some rain there ding as some flakes. If I recall correctly, Bgoney mentioned around a quarter of an inch of rain is possible the other day, and the guidance has been showing that very well! I like the 40s on Friday. Again, fog is certainly possible if we have light winds. I would assume the best chance for that would be Thurs night and Fri morning because the southerly winds should pick up Fri afternoon and evening ahead of the front. A few flakes maybe on Sunday but as of now if we see that little secondary low pop, it'll be to our SE (if it even occurs). Then, we are bone chilling cold MLK Day and Tues, slowly moderate Wed and Thurs then we'll see what happens for future snow chances after that. We should stay on the colder side of normal thru the end of the month as a whole. For early Feb, is the Euro right where the MJO gets into Phase 3 then the COD which would NOT allow for a torch to occur. Or, is the GEFS and CFS right where we would get into those warmer phases and thus a significant pattern change towards warmer for a couple of weeks would occur? We'll have to wait and see on that. We have plenty to keep us busy right now lol

[tpweather]

Hey Les and I believe on this forum we know there is more than one way to skin a cat. Models and humans are going to be wrong at times and at the end of the day Mother Nature will decide the outcome. You look over the years and really not many true cross polar air masses that end up making it to the GOM. Sure we have nice arctic fronts but a true cross polar has maybe happened 5 times in the last 30-40 years. So not only tough for forecasters but also models with limited information.

The good thing is if I end up being wrong the next time we have this happen say in 2044 I will be ready lol. Will I change my forecast by Saturday and my guess the stubborn old man will not let this happen but sooner or later you must wave the white flag. Just throwing out a forecast to throw out a forecast is crazy in my book and I always try and back it up with what I see happening.

I agree with you on the extended concerning the mjo and that will probably come into a clearer picture next week after this cold wave is over.

Will be back on here later and Doc appt at 7am and then several errands to run.

[tron777]

Nice post Tim and hope all goes well at the Dr.'s this morning. We watch and wait as usual to see how the pieces will come together. Models will continue to struggle with such a cold air mass in place along with an active southern stream.

[Bgoney]

Anyone seeing any snow showers atm?

[Bgoney]

23 degrees warmer here this morning than yesterday morning. Currently 23

[tron777]

DT has a good This Week in Weather on YouTube if you're interested. Search for WXrisk YouTube channel. I'd post a direct link if I wasn't working lol

[tron777]

23 degrees warmer here this morning than yesterday morning. Currently 23

It was 25 this morning when I got up (IMBY and at CVG). I've seen a few flakes this morning too. 27 and light snow being reported at CVG per the 7am reading.

[Snow43130]

Had a light dusting this morning just flurries now 22 degrees here

[Bgoney]

First 15 days in the books and temp wise CVG didn’t make top ten but a respectable 13th in this day and age is quite an achievement

IMG_3054.jpeg

Break it down to mean low average for same period and 2025 remains a consistent 13th

IMG_3055.jpeg

[tron777]

[cloudy72]

Anyone seeing any snow showers atm?

I don't think it snowed here at all last night. Current temp is 29 with a low of 19 this morning.

[winterstormjoe]

For some reason my mind is stuck on the Jan 24th time frame for some good snow for the past week or so. Hope I don't jinx it now! Lol

[tron777]

For some reason my mind is stuck on the Jan 24th time frame for some good snow for the past week or so. Hope I don't jinx it now! Lol

12Z GFS is still throwing us a bone for that time period while the 12Z CMC still has the early next week snow storm. Both models are not backing down from their respective solutions.

[airwolf76]

Beautiful light snow has broken out here. another pack refresher perhaps?. my half inch snow pack was getting stale

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and doctor went well and got my other chores done for the day. Will take a look at the afternoon models sometime in the next few hours to see if any changes or still holding put at this moment.

[tron777]

Beautiful light snow has broken out here. another pack refresher perhaps?. my half inch snow pack was getting stale

Let us know how much you get Charles. Good luck on Sunday into Monday too. I am thinking that there could be a sneaky system that perhaps, could dump a few inches on you.

[Bgoney]

For some reason my mind is stuck on the Jan 24th time frame for some good snow for the past week or so. Hope I don't jinx it now! Lol

12Z GFS is still throwing us a bone for that time period while the 12Z CMC still has the early next week snow storm. Both models are not backing down from their respective solutions.

I think the 24th starts the better return flow . Near that time Should start to see the western ridge retrograde and the eastern trough to follow moving west and lessening the dryer northern flow

[airwolf76]

Beautiful light snow has broken out here. another pack refresher perhaps?. my half inch snow pack was getting stale

Let us know how much you get Charles. Good luck on Sunday into Monday too. I am thinking that there could be a sneaky system that perhaps, could dump a few inches on you.

so far just a heavy dusting. I will post back later today on it. yeah there may be a little something Sunday night or Monday. have not heard any amounts but it will be a light event.