Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

All weather related things can be found here! From snow storms to severe weather including the best model analysis and long range forecasting around!
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4307
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

No doubt we’ll see another couple days of record heat for the region next week , 80 degree temps just won’t go away. The trend for Halloween continues to look less wet with only light showers, but still time for changes as Les has noted.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 5:13 am No doubt we’ll see another couple days of record heat for the region next week , 80 degree temps just won’t go away. The trend for Halloween continues to look less wet with only light showers, but still time for changes as Les has noted.
Yeah... it's not really the amounts that concern me it is the timing. We trick or treated in every kind of weather as kids, but it does suck to do it in the rain I won't lie. :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4307
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

tron777 wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 5:37 am
Bgoney wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 5:13 am No doubt we’ll see another couple days of record heat for the region next week , 80 degree temps just won’t go away. The trend for Halloween continues to look less wet with only light showers, but still time for changes as Les has noted.
Yeah... it's not really the amounts that concern me it is the timing. We trick or treated in every kind of weather as kids, but it does suck to do it in the rain I won't lie. :lol:
GFS has been the most determined to keep things on the dry side locally , 50/50 atm
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:08 am
tron777 wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 5:37 am
Bgoney wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 5:13 am No doubt we’ll see another couple days of record heat for the region next week , 80 degree temps just won’t go away. The trend for Halloween continues to look less wet with only light showers, but still time for changes as Les has noted.
Yeah... it's not really the amounts that concern me it is the timing. We trick or treated in every kind of weather as kids, but it does suck to do it in the rain I won't lie. :lol:
GFS has been the most determined to keep things on the dry side locally , 50/50 atm
The Euro seems to be the model that wants to put a damper on things.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

12Z GFS has some light rain for Trick-or-Treat time on today's run.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Radar is picking up some light shower activity moving into SE IN. I have no idea what is making it to the ground and what isn't. I am doubting much of it is since there is a 20 degree spread between the temp and dew point at CVG as of the 2pm reading. 72 / 52
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
Mjr
Rain Shower
Posts: 96
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2021 11:21 pm
Location: Amelia/Pierce Township

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by Mjr »

Raining here
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Had a nice shower here. Started raining when I got to Florence on the drive home and it just stopped. CVG picked up 0.02, me and the Boone Co mesonet site got 0.04" My high was 73, now down to 62. CVG had 72 before the rain hit today.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Wow! For our local region, The period from September 30th to October 22nd is ranked 127 driest out of 132 years. :o It's been dry for a good chunk of the country too. Check this out!

Dry.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6396
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

CVG got to 74, DAY 73 and CMH 69 today.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Correction to the rainfall totals that I posted. CVG got 0.03" Boone co Mesonet got 0.06"
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Good morning folks! Hope everyone has a great weekend. I will be headed to Northwest HS on the West side of town for my little nephew's football play off game in a little while. I'll be in leaf grinding mode with the yard tomorrow.

As far as the weather is concerned, we are currently in the upper 40s with some sunshine. Look for N winds around 10 mph today with temps getting into the lower 60s. Upper 30s tonight and the low 60s again for tomorrow with light E winds. We could see some patchy frost Monday morning with temps in the middle 30s. Otherwise the warmth roars back into the area with the low 70s Monday and upper 70s Tues and Wed. I am still not ruling out an isolated reading hitting 80.

Things begin to change by Halloween although mild as our next front moves into the area. We are still watching the timing of the rain for the kiddos. The latest GFS has now sped up the front with rain becoming likely Thurs afternoon which is unfortunate for the ghouls and goblins. The Euro is even faster with rain moving in during the morning hours and it's out of here for the kiddies by trick-or-treat time. Models will continue to bounce around with the timing and we have a lot of time to get something locked in.

I'll stop there as we can now cover the extended range in the November thread.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6396
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

tron777 wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 8:48 am Good morning folks! Hope everyone has a great weekend. I will be headed to Northwest HS on the West side of town for my little nephew's football play off game in a little while. I'll be in leaf grinding mode with the yard tomorrow.

As far as the weather is concerned, we are currently in the upper 40s with some sunshine. Look for N winds around 10 mph today with temps getting into the lower 60s. Upper 30s tonight and the low 60s again for tomorrow with light E winds. We could see some patchy frost Monday morning with temps in the middle 30s. Otherwise the warmth roars back into the area with the low 70s Monday and upper 70s Tues and Wed. I am still not ruling out an isolated reading hitting 80.

Things begin to change by Halloween although mild as our next front moves into the area. We are still watching the timing of the rain for the kiddos. The latest GFS has now sped up the front with rain becoming likely Thurs afternoon which is unfortunate for the ghouls and goblins. The Euro is even faster with rain moving in during the morning hours and it's out of here for the kiddies by trick-or-treat time. Models will continue to bounce around with the timing and we have a lot of time to get something locked in.

I'll stop there as we can now cover the extended range in the November thread.
The very best to Cooper and his team! 8-) Wow time flies as he's now in HS! :)
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

MVWxObserver wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:50 am
tron777 wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 8:48 am Good morning folks! Hope everyone has a great weekend. I will be headed to Northwest HS on the West side of town for my little nephew's football play off game in a little while. I'll be in leaf grinding mode with the yard tomorrow.

As far as the weather is concerned, we are currently in the upper 40s with some sunshine. Look for N winds around 10 mph today with temps getting into the lower 60s. Upper 30s tonight and the low 60s again for tomorrow with light E winds. We could see some patchy frost Monday morning with temps in the middle 30s. Otherwise the warmth roars back into the area with the low 70s Monday and upper 70s Tues and Wed. I am still not ruling out an isolated reading hitting 80.

Things begin to change by Halloween although mild as our next front moves into the area. We are still watching the timing of the rain for the kiddos. The latest GFS has now sped up the front with rain becoming likely Thurs afternoon which is unfortunate for the ghouls and goblins. The Euro is even faster with rain moving in during the morning hours and it's out of here for the kiddies by trick-or-treat time. Models will continue to bounce around with the timing and we have a lot of time to get something locked in.

I'll stop there as we can now cover the extended range in the November thread.
The very best to Cooper and his team! 8-) Wow time flies as he's now in HS! :)
No no no... :lol: He plays on the Milford Red K/1 team. All of the Greater Cincinnati Youth Football League teams play at various high schools through the Cincy area of Ohio.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6396
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

tron777 wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:01 am
MVWxObserver wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:50 am
tron777 wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 8:48 am Good morning folks! Hope everyone has a great weekend. I will be headed to Northwest HS on the West side of town for my little nephew's football play off game in a little while. I'll be in leaf grinding mode with the yard tomorrow.

As far as the weather is concerned, we are currently in the upper 40s with some sunshine. Look for N winds around 10 mph today with temps getting into the lower 60s. Upper 30s tonight and the low 60s again for tomorrow with light E winds. We could see some patchy frost Monday morning with temps in the middle 30s. Otherwise the warmth roars back into the area with the low 70s Monday and upper 70s Tues and Wed. I am still not ruling out an isolated reading hitting 80.

Things begin to change by Halloween although mild as our next front moves into the area. We are still watching the timing of the rain for the kiddos. The latest GFS has now sped up the front with rain becoming likely Thurs afternoon which is unfortunate for the ghouls and goblins. The Euro is even faster with rain moving in during the morning hours and it's out of here for the kiddies by trick-or-treat time. Models will continue to bounce around with the timing and we have a lot of time to get something locked in.

I'll stop there as we can now cover the extended range in the November thread.
The very best to Cooper and his team! 8-) Wow time flies as he's now in HS! :)
No no no... :lol: He plays on the Milford Red K/1 team. All of the Greater Cincinnati Youth Football League teams play at various high schools through the Cincy area of Ohio.
Okay Bro :)

Has he and his team ever had any games at Cincy Christian HS which is right near the Butler / Hamilton counties line in Fairfield? :)

That's my alma mater Class of '82. :)
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Not that I know of Bro. If they win today, the Superbowl is next weekend at Nippert.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Well they lost to a good Edgewood team 14-0. Penalties killed the Milford Eagles today. Coop had some good tackles including a TD saving tackle on Defense. He had a couple of short runs on offense when they did a QB keeper.

Weatherwise, 63 here today and at CVG currently. A lovely day in progress. Per the 12Z models, we are still looking at some light rain on Halloween with the exact timing TBD.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6396
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

tron777 wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 3:44 pm Well they lost to a good Edgewood team 14-0. Penalties killed the Milford Eagles today. Coop had some good tackles including a TD saving tackle on Defense. He had a couple of short runs on offense when they did a QB keeper.

Weatherwise, 63 here today and at CVG currently. A lovely day in progress. Per the 12Z models, we are still looking at some light rain on Halloween with the exact timing TBD.
Sorry to hear about Coop and team's loss. Nice to hear though that he had some good moves despite the loss. ;)
Eric

Greenville, OH
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6396
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

CVG reached 64 and both DAY / CMH 62 today.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4307
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

I see ILN is finally advertising the possibility of record highs for the OV we talked about a couple days ago for next week. A summer like feel for a few days for late October. Temps will be a whopping 12-20 degrees above normal during the last few days of month. Dry beautiful days continue then until near Halloween. Models settling in on some scattered light showers for the most part during that day
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Good morning all! I dropped to 36 this morning and no frost was observed. I think an 80 degree reading on Tues / Wed is possible. The southerly winds should ramp up a bit also pumping in that warmer air. 83 is the record on both days from 1927 at CVG so we'll see what happens there. The timing of the rain for Halloween is our biggest challenge this week. Once some of the hi res models come out like the NAM and HRRR we should be able to nail that down. For now, as Bgoney mentioned, most of the rain looks to occur during the day and while the ground will be damp for the kiddies, we might get lucky by Trick-or-Treat time as far as anything falling from the sky is concerned. We will continue to keep an eye on this of course as the week progresses.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

62 at CVG today, same thing here. One more night in the 30s then we warm up as we await to see how the timing of the rain works out for Halloween. Low 70s Monday then upper 70s if not 80 for Tues and Wed.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
MVWxObserver
Hurricane
Posts: 6396
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 pm
Location: Greenville, OH

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by MVWxObserver »

CVG got to 62 and both DAY / CMH 59 today.
Eric

Greenville, OH
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22726
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Good morning folks! 36 currently IMBY, CVG is still in the 40s. No changes honestly to the forecast for the rest of Rocktober other then monitoring the timing of the rain for Halloween. The GFS is back to an afternoon into the evening event so it has slowed things back down. The Euro is still trying to get things cleared out but it is close for Cincy. SE counties of course no, NW counties yes.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4307
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Record mean max temps (hi/lo ave) is 70 for both Tuesday/wed. Top 5 hottest is a slam dunk for both and #1 spot is definitely on the table for hottest Oct. 29/30th on record
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Post Reply