Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all! Not much change to report. We still have a scattered storm risk today and tomorrow with a cold frontal passage. Dry Friday and Saturday and then scattered storm chances re-enter the picture Sun afternoon into next week. Highs mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s. A fairly typical summertime pattern. We may get into a NW Flow pattern though in the extended range with MCS potential. I am still keeping an eye on that possibility about a week or so from now.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks good. With the ridge expected to take hold west of here this will hold back the southwest monsoon season. This is bad news for folks in New Mexico and Arizona as they had a dry winter and fall and can really use the rain. These big strong ridges look for areas that are dry because they can set up shop a lot easier. This has probably been the bust for models this summer and one reason we have not seen a big heat outbreak across the USA. Sure the west has been rather hot but east of the Rockies we have seen some heat but nothing long lasting. I believe also that La Nina is having a tougher time getting going and this has also helped in the heat department.

Again we are in the last week of July so plenty of time to get some extended heat and once the tropics heat up again I would expect that to happen. Will the heat be one with low 90's but rather high humidity or do we dry out enough and you see mid 90's but the humidity somewhat lower. Leaning towards the low 90's but again how much rain do we see with the upcoming patter will have a say as well.

Thanks Tim and good morning. We are in good agreement with not only the short term forecast but the longer term as well. It appears that we will end July and start Aug with NW flow and MCS potential. If the tropics do fire up after that, then like you, I would expect the 90s to make another push into the area. We'll just have to wait and see how things develop over the next couple of weeks.

What is happening this summer and Mother Nature like always must keep the earth balanced. One way this summer in the USA is though the monsoon season is off to a slow start in the southwest USA she is keeping plenty of rain in the Tn Valley and Gulf coast area. Normally by late July you are seeing some decent signs of the monsoon and also much more isolated showers and thundershowers in the gulf and Tn valley. The lovely Bermuda High that happens every year was expected to be a bigger influence and though it has at times bullied its way westward the main resting point has been in the ocean and not over land. With the continued monsoon season in India this has hurt parts of the middle east as the rains continue to fall in India and they usually drift westward over time and have somewhat but places like Iran and Iraq start to see some rain by late July and that is not happening and the heat just continues in that part of the world. Europe has been cooler than models have shown and though an early start in late spring where they had some heat that has not continued into the summer. Like us here in the USA I expect some heat to show up in August but then it becomes much harder for them especially in Northern Europe as they start losing daylight hours quickly. Southeast Asia which over the past 10 years have been drier than normal in the spring and summer has done well this year and does this translate into the upcoming winter and not sure yet but just something to watch. Greenland has been very cold and snowy this summer and though I expect some mild periods over the next month we know winter is right around the corner for them. I could go on and on like I usually do but I guess I had a good nights sleep and these thoughts came flowing out lol.

Northern Miami Valley and northward under a Marginal Risk for 5% wind.

12Z NAM, HRRR, and Hires NAM all show the best chance of convection to be North of Cincy for today as the front drops in. Then for Cincy on south, we have a chance tomorrow. Models are models but I am just posting what the data shows so take it for what it's worth.

Like yesterday, today's convective temp per the 12Z ILN sounding is 78 degrees. Shows a max temp of 82.

The bowling ball complex in central Indiana isn’t supposed to be there according to name your model. So who knows how that progresses as it moves into our region. We’ve got cape in the 2000s range, so we’ll see

Starting to see some isolated showers popping up. A little better concentration N of IND which is diving to the SE.

Since we have the cold front in Northern Indiana and Ohio I am not surprised we are seeing some storms develop near I-70 this afternoon. Some could reach into our local area later today before the sun goes down. Thursday again is timing and the front should be on our doorstep early in the morning and hopefully we are able to see some rain early on. Then by the afternoon the front will probably be south of us but still close enough especially for folks in the southern part of the area to get a few more showers and thundershowers. Again not everyone will get lucky and some with quick downpours.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 1:26 pm Since we have the cold front in Northern Indiana and Ohio I am not surprised we are seeing some storms develop near I-70 this afternoon. Some could reach into our local area later today before the sun goes down. Thursday again is timing and the front should be on our doorstep early in the morning and hopefully we are able to see some rain early on. Then by the afternoon the front will probably be south of us but still close enough especially for folks in the southern part of the area to get a few more showers and thundershowers. Again not everyone will get lucky and some with quick downpours.

Agreed Tim! Good post with explaining the timing of the prefrontal trough (today's chance) and the actual frontal passage (tomorrow morning's chance).

Good Afternoon and just looking over some information and really just looking at the current setup. Yes we have the front coming but we have the southwest to northeast flow up from the GOM. This may slow down the front on Thursday and matter of fact this may put somebody in an area where the front does not move at all for several hours and this could be an area that gets quite a bit of rainfall on Thursday. Will watch this over the next 12-16 hours and see what the movement looks like. Most fronts this time of year will slow down or stall in southern Kentucky or northern Tn but with this southwest flow I wonder if this slows down even more. Just something I am watching at the moment but has got my attention

Radar is looking pretty decent N of I-70. Hope to see some of that hold together for us later today.

Time to buy that lottery ticket. A huge downpour the last 10 minutes and will give you the total after it has finished. I may get more from this one soaking compared to the entire month of July

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:45 pm Time to buy that lottery ticket. A huge downpour the last 10 minutes and will give you the total after it has finished. I may get more from this one soaking compared to the entire month of July

Awesome Tim!

Total from the first round 0.32 so not bad and hopefully more to come. Thursday is interesting as the front should be nearby but also you may be adding some moisture from the GOM. Yes it will be a close call but if we can get the two combined then somebody in the Ohio Valley should do quite nicely

Les, I can hear the thunder rolling in our backyard's. Unfortunately, the big storm is about 5 miles south of us hitting Union. I don’t think we will get a drop of rain out of this

The dome is strong!!

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 4:07 pm Les, I can hear the thunder rolling in our backyard's. Unfortunately, the big storm is about 5 miles south of us hitting Union. I don’t think we will get a drop of rain out of this

The dome is strong!!

A few sprinkles otherwise mainly noise here also Pete. I am glad to see Tim get something though. He absolutely needed it even more then us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:06 pm Radar is looking pretty decent N of I-70. Hope to see some of that hold together for us later today.

Beautiful line moving directly at me until it split and dissipated. Total so far 0.05",

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 4:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:06 pm Radar is looking pretty decent N of I-70. Hope to see some of that hold together for us later today.

Beautiful line moving directly at me until it split and dissipated. Total so far 0.05",

The only real hope now is some action along the ILL / Indy border but watch that either die out or miss us to the SW.

My folks and I were at a Dollar Tree store this afternoon in north Greenville after having had lunch out and I was waiting in our van while they were card shopping. A downpour gradually started and so I hurried into the store to let my Dad know it was starting to rain and he gave me the "key" so I could close the driver side and passenger windows. Great to have received some more liquid sunshine! It then poured here in south Greenville shortly after we got back home.

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87 for my high today. CVG probably did the same. 5pm climate report isn't out just yet.

EDIT: CVG did hit 87.

CVG got to 87, DAY 86 and CMH 88 today.