Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and a whopping 0.05 inches of rain. Like Les mentioned just enough to settle the dust. Beautiful day in storm and then we repeat the set up over the next week with a quick warm up followed by a cold front with the chances of rain though always tough when the ground is drying out but at least some chances.


Models are starting to figure out the remainder of summer and a few items to notice is that as we get closer the models still have the ridge in the central USA which is no surprise because really that is usually the place it resides in the summer. It seems to me though the models are trying to move that ridge further west and again we will see but until we stop seeing these cold fronts come through no extended heat. A few reasons we are seeing these cold fronts come through and one is the tropics are slowing down in this part of the world and this usually happens in late June and early July. Second and something I talked about for at least a month is the amount of rain and cool weather in the southern Canada,northern plains and upper mid-west. This makes a difference as cold fronts are able to work further south than normal and yes the cold air in Canada is even cooler than normal for them.

Yes we had a week of hot weather but nothing to write home about and maybe 1-2 hours during the whole time we got to heat advisory level. Two ways around here to get an extended heat wave is the southeast ridge gets really strong and sits near us or we have heat from the northern plains that holds back any cold fronts. We understand over the next few weeks the northern plains will continue to be on the cooler side so does the southeast ridge do the dirty work and yes its trying as we saw yesterday we had tons of moisture around but the ridge nudged itself in the Ohio Valley and no doubt kept us from getting much in the way of rainfall plus we had two pieces of energy with one the the northeast and one to the southwest and we got the old dome to be put in place.

Good morning Tim and you are correct. I saw CB post the latest Euro Weeklies and if correct, the heat gets further to the West later on in July and into August as well. If correct, this would lead to more NW flow for us and chances at t-storms / MCS's.

Curious to hear where you guys think would be the best place for the ridge to be centered for our region to most benefit from ridge riders come July. Personally I’d like to see it centered in the Four corners/Texas panhandle region

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:11 am Curious to hear where you guys think would be the best place for the ridge to be centered for our region to most benefit from ridge riders come July. Personally I’d like to see it centered in the Four corners/Texas panhandle region

I would tend to agree. EPS / GEFS show this in the extended range so if it is correct, we should become more vulnerable to MCS's. Currently, we've had our chances but the timing has been really bad, We need these complexes to occur during peak heating or during the overnight so we get help from the LLJ. The morning timing we have been seeing keeps causing them to peter out as they enter the region and then the debris clouds mess up any hopes for afternoon convection also.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:11 am Curious to hear where you guys think would be the best place for the ridge to be centered for our region to most benefit from ridge riders come July. Personally I’d like to see it centered in the Four corners/Texas panhandle region

Yes that would be a nice place for the ridge to be centered. No doubt its possible because that area is still dry from the winter and like I mentioned the northern plains wet and these ridges like a drier ground to get hold of. The Bermuda High is interesting and again usually by mid-July we have a nice feel where it will be located and not sure on that piece of the puzzle

A really nice day in store as drier air continues to filer into the region via NE winds. 62 was the dew as of 9am at CVG. Temp was 71 so the lower to perhaps the middle 80s in a few spots looks good for highs today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 9:24 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:11 am Curious to hear where you guys think would be the best place for the ridge to be centered for our region to most benefit from ridge riders come July. Personally I’d like to see it centered in the Four corners/Texas panhandle region

Yes that would be a nice place for the ridge to be centered. No doubt its possible because that area is still dry from the winter and like I mentioned the northern plains wet and these ridges like a drier ground to get hold of. The Bermuda High is interesting and again usually by mid-July we have a nice feel where it will be located and not sure on that piece of the puzzle

I hope the SEridge/ Bermuda high returns to normalcy. That’s high on my list of ingredients for best results for cvgland. Anything is better than last year at this point which was for the most part nowhere to be found with the result being an all encompassing Midwest/OV summer/fall drought situation.

Here's the latest drought update. Not shocking that parts of the region are now in D1 status. I am pretty much in that same boat from a localized perspective IMBY.

Great Video by Brian. A few things to mentioned and he showed how later next week we may have a few chances for some decent rains. Many times in the winter we see these lows in Canada that stall and throw spokes of energy into our area. This happens much less in the summer but late next week with all the cool air in Canada and yes some of it downright cold for this time of year may be able to work into our area. Of course it wont be cold or even cool but we can get better shots of rain and of course temps below normal.

Again not set in stone but Brian who has been for the most part talking about a hot summer which still can happen but he seems to believe we may get a break which would be wonderful.

Also one item in the Atlantic he mentioned and yes these system can mess with models and its trying to form a system later next week. Again early July normally not the best time period but it does happen and yes the waters are plenty warm enough. My guess this system will bother the models over the next several days and one run will show and extended period of heat here and the next run will show a warm up followed by some chances of rain and a quick cool down. Will watch this but at the moment I see no extended heat waves at all and if we continue to see rains in the northern plains and upper mid-west those fronts should have no problem making it into our area.

Does this mean all summer this pattern will continue and no its too early but some of the met's across the country in late May and June told us that heat would be a problem all through the summer because the models were showing that big ridge but sometime models do not pick up on other items which includes heavy rains in certain areas and also the amount of the cold air in Canada this season.

My guess is the chances for longer term heat will be when the tropics start cranking and then you can get those ridges to the north that can lead to a better shot of an extended heat wave

I'm happy for the break too Tim. Just need some rain and everything should be a-okay for a while.

Dews are down into the 50s now! A wonderful afternoon in progress if you're able to be outside to enjoy it, that is. Still looking like Sat into Sat night is our next chance for rain. I am going with 50 / 50 coverage once again at this early stage of the game. I will go ahead and start the July thread since next week is the most important week of the year for us pyro's!

Each new model run is more and more less impressive with qpf and coverage

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:00 pm Each new model run is more and more less impressive with qpf and coverage

Agreed. That is why I am only going with 50% POPS for Saturday. I sure hope that I won't have to lower that but it won't surprise me if I did. Most of the energy looks to stay to our north with this next system. (Great Lakes, N IN, N OH, etc).

86 / 56 as of 2pm at CVG. The dry air mass and dry ground are allowing for the temps to overachieve just a bit. I won't be surprised if we hit 90 tomorrow and certainly on Saturday ahead of the next front.

EDIT: 87 officially so far for the high today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:05 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:00 pm Each new model run is more and more less impressive with qpf and coverage

Agreed. That is why I am only going with 50% POPS for Saturday. I sure hope that I won't have to lower that but it won't surprise me if I did. Most of the energy looks to stay to our north with this next system. (Great Lakes, N IN, N OH, etc).

Can add the EU to the list. Awful

Anyone notice that 975mb low in the Bering Sea yesterday. Pretty rare to have a low that strong this time of year.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 3:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:05 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:00 pm Each new model run is more and more less impressive with qpf and coverage

Agreed. That is why I am only going with 50% POPS for Saturday. I sure hope that I won't have to lower that but it won't surprise me if I did. Most of the energy looks to stay to our north with this next system. (Great Lakes, N IN, N OH, etc).

Can add the EU to the list. Awful

Yes it was! Maybe Friday of next week according to the 12Z run but that's so far off that it could easily peter out too.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 4:36 pm Anyone notice that 975mb low in the Bering Sea yesterday. Pretty rare to have a low that strong this time of year.

The -PDO is really strong, if not record breaking so I wonder if it is not a contributing factor with regards to that? Could be a one off I guess too.

88 at CVG today, 86 here.

I think Les’s forecast for Saturday still looks good 40-50% chance of isolated/scattered thunderstorms haves and have-nots scenario again. Better coverage near I70 northward

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 5:54 pm I think Les’s forecast for Saturday still looks good 40-50% chance of isolated/scattered thunderstorms haves and have-nots scenario again. Better coverage near I70 northward

I'm already planning on being one of the have not's and this is based on past history.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:00 pm Each new model run is more and more less impressive with qpf and coverage

I agree models to high on rainfall and to high on temps.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 4:36 pm Anyone notice that 975mb low in the Bering Sea yesterday. Pretty rare to have a low that strong this time of year.

Noticed that and the really cold air in Canada even for them

TRUMP 1 AND BYEDONE 0 ! Joe on electric "fumes"!