Absolute Vorticity

No changes to the SPC's Day 2 Outlook for tomorrow:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Starting to get that summertime humidity and a nice build of clouds today with some sprinkles. We are loading up on the moisture so yes over the next week several chances of heavy rain but when and where is not so easy to call. If somebody sneezes too hard it may set off a shower.

Currently for Indy there's a 60% chance of showers and t-storms and 50% for Memorial Day. The 108th Running of the Indy 500 may take place this year on Mon.

84 right now in G'ville.

CVG reached 86, DAY 87 and CMH 89'ed today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 4:49 pm Currently for Indy there's a 60% chance of showers and t-storms and 50% for Memorial Day. The 108th Running of the Indy 500 may take place this year on Mon.

84 right now in G'ville.

My daughter was born on Indy 500 day in 1988. Have no ideal who won and never watched a minute of the race. I just know my wife was ready to go home that day but she was able to on Monday with no problem.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 4:59 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 4:49 pm Currently for Indy there's a 60% chance of showers and t-storms and 50% for Memorial Day. The 108th Running of the Indy 500 may take place this year on Mon.

84 right now in G'ville.

My daughter was born on Indy 500 day in 1988. Have no ideal who won and never watched a minute of the race. I just know my wife was ready to go home that day but she was able to on Monday with no problem.

Way cool bro!

On race day, the three Penske teammates proceeded to lead 192 of the 200 laps, with Rick Mears taking the checkered flag, his third-career Indy 500 victory. The race represented the milestone 50th victory in Championship car racing for owner Roger Penske and Penske Racing.

88 for my high today. I saw a few drops on the way home on the Ohio side. Nothing IMBY as of this post.

Are there going to be storms tonight or has that gone away?

cincy bud wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 5:30 pm Are there going to be storms tonight or has that gone away?

There should be a weakening line in the wee hours of the morning. Nothing severe is expected. Then after tomorrow morning, we'll see how things look for the potential late afternoon / evening period.

Tornado watch where my son lives and warnings southwest of Wausau. This is not normally their severe season and that usually happens in late July through much of August.

was up to 80 degrees here yesterday. that is very warm for this time of year ! went fishing in the morning for 3 hours. caught 5, no size released them back. long range is showing cooler as we get towards the weekend and next week.
what are you guys thinking for the summer? TWC is going above average like always. im not sure yet. the spring so far has been avg temps with above avg precip so far.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 3:08 am was up to 80 degrees here yesterday. that is very warm for this time of year ! went fishing in the morning for 3 hours. caught 5, no size released them back. long range is showing cooler as we get towards the weekend and next week.
what are you guys thinking for the summer? TWC is going above average like always. im not sure yet. the spring so far has been avg temps with above avg precip so far.

We have mixed feelings on this forum depending on who you ask. I am going with a hot summer with an above avg number of 90 degree days. Cooler 1st half versus a hotter second half. Part of July and August could be quite hot if what I am thinking pans out correctly.

Good morning all! Models are not handling the convection well at all. A little bit of activity to our West / SW and we'll see if that can hold together or not for this morning. No changes from the SPC. Still a slight risk for us with wind being the main hazard for this evening. If we see severe wx 7pm to 1am time range is our window. NAM and HRRR models are not very impressive and it could be a swing and a miss to the south for the most intense storms. We shall see what happens.

Latest thinking from the boys and they also agree with the set up in terms of severe wx being less of a threat then previously indicated.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Several loosely-organized clusters of SHRA/TSRA continue to
work to the ENE across IL/IN early this morning, with the
expectation for this activity to move into the ILN FA shortly
before daybreak. Anticipate that the activity will be in a
weakening phase, especially with eastward extent, as it will be
outrunning its source forcing/lift and encounter an increasingly
unfavorable environment with eastward extent. This being said,
often times the storms are able to survive and maintain a bit
longer than perhaps some guidance suggests. So the inclination
is that at least /some/ convection will be maintained into the
ILN FA through the morning hours, likely providing a few rumbles
and perhaps some brief gusty winds as the storms move through.
At the very least, some patches of light rain and extensive
cloud cover will overspread the local area this morning,
continuing to wane with eastward extent into late morning.

Subsidence and a stable environment should evolve in the
immediate wake of the AM ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA, delaying the best
destabilization efforts toward early afternoon. While robust
destabilization should eventually evolve/advect in (especially
near/E of I-71), there remain some questions regarding coverage
of redevelopment during the afternoon itself as the LL
southwesterly flow is largely parallel to the approaching
front/boundary, with very little in the way of pronounced LL
convergence or forcing or lift. This is not to say at all that
there won`t be a few storms that redevelop amidst the
increasingly-unstable environment during mid/late afternoon
(especially in central OH to south-central OH and NE KY where
the best instby will be located by 18z-21z), but with a lack of
focused forcing or lift, we may end up in a scenario where most
spots stay dry this afternoon into early evening. This may be
especially the case as the latest guidance suggests the front
getting slightly further E than previously indicated, with some
mixing down of dewpoints in EC IN and WC OH by late in the day
in the post-frontal environment, essentially shunting all
potential for storms a bit further S.

Will continue mention of a few strong to severe storms in the
HWO, but coverage of said storms may be much more limited than
originally anticipated. Needless to say, the forecast has
trended to a less concerning setup for today, despite the
continued low-end potential for a few strong to severe storms
with gusty/damaging winds. Highs today reach into the lower/mid
80s amidst filtered afternoon sunshine.

Light rain now being reported at CVG per the 6am reading. It won't amount to much based on radar trends as expected.

SPC has a severe wx risk area outlined for us now on Sunday. 15% here 30% to our SW. That will be a day to watch most certainly with a low coming thru the region and a possible MCS associated with it. Otherwise, we'll see what happens today. Not expecting severe wx Thurs - Sat at this time, just rounds of non severe storms / heavy rains. Where that happens and when, is still to be determined. For the Holiday Weekend period, I still believe Sat is our best day for dry weather.

Good Morning Les and nice little batch of energy moving through the local area this morning. Mostly light rain but with how much moisture is available somebody may get a quick downpour. We will see what happens later today and we should recover from any action this morning but will the energy be further south which has been the trend over the past 24 hours. Thursday could be rather nice though again with this air mass you can always get an isolated shower or two. Then we just watch for pieces of energy through the weekend and again models have timing issues and at the moment I just go chance of showers and thundershowers for the whole weekend with the chance of some severe weather. Hopefully by Friday we can narrow that window down somewhat.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 7:03 am Good Morning Les and nice little batch of energy moving through the local area this morning. Mostly light rain but with how much moisture is available somebody may get a quick downpour. We will see what happens later today and we should recover from any action this morning but will the energy be further south which has been the trend over the past 24 hours. Thursday could be rather nice though again with this air mass you can always get an isolated shower or two. Then we just watch for pieces of energy through the weekend and again models have timing issues and at the moment I just go chance of showers and thundershowers for the whole weekend with the chance of some severe weather. Hopefully by Friday we can narrow that window down somewhat.

Good morning Tim.... I agree with your post. My current thinking for the weekend is for low chance POPS on Sat, likely on Sunday with severe wx TBD. Not sure on MD as that will depend on the timing of the system on Sunday and the follow up system after that. As we both know, models are struggling.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 7:03 am Good Morning Les and nice little batch of energy moving through the local area this morning. Mostly light rain but with how much moisture is available somebody may get a quick downpour. We will see what happens later today and we should recover from any action this morning but will the energy be further south which has been the trend over the past 24 hours. Thursday could be rather nice though again with this air mass you can always get an isolated shower or two. Then we just watch for pieces of energy through the weekend and again models have timing issues and at the moment I just go chance of showers and thundershowers for the whole weekend with the chance of some severe weather. Hopefully by Friday we can narrow that window down somewhat.

Nice post Tim, agree completely. Trend for organized storms later and overnight has shifted south/SE. Really a typical summer forecast for the holiday weekend.

Starting to hear some thunder and looks like a brief period of rain and thunder though it can rain quite hard for a short period of time.

Off topic somewhat but the India monsoon season has started early. This is great news as the monsoon season is so key for them and getting a head start is wonderful news. Of course Mother Nature must balance this out somewhere and though its early Mexico is feeling the heat and will this heat expand into the USA and no doubt it will but where does the major heat finally decide to settle in for the summer. Heat builds heat and at the moment the southwest USA looks like the place for a short term residency but as summer progresses will the heat expand further north and east and I do believe it does and the second half of summer around here could be quite hot. With the Hurricane season in the Atlantic looking nice I expect some stronger high pressures to form near us.

This goes with my 90 degree forecast and was trying to see how May played out before I entered and again my thoughts may be 180 degrees off but this is what I am seeing at the moment

Heavy rain with thunder at the moment and though this will be a quick hitter rainfall amounts can be over 1/4 of an inch in no time. This atmosphere is loaded and tons of thunder and lightning and this should continue through the weekend

Had a t-shower here in Mason also. Now, skies are turning partly cloudy. CVG picked up 0.61" as of 9am.... I'm impressed!

The rain/lighting in Hyde Park/Downtown area was impressive. Came down in buckets!

70 now at CVG after the AM rain has ended. Ignore the dewpoint. it's in the 60s, not 45. Anyway...BG is live right now.