Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:17 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2024 4:24 am A cool morning in the U20s to L30sacross the area. A few snow showers are still possible this afternoon and evening. No issues are expected. A seasonal week temp wise in thew 40s and 50s for highs, with the 20s and 30s for lows. Not much precip until we get towards Friday and even that system is looking week.

The week after next looks busy with rain / t-storms sometime in the 25-26th range then another system around the 28th or so. An early look at Easter and if nothing changes, we look good. Nice and dry with highs 65 to 70 is my current prelim call.

Hopefully, too, a dry Opening Day for the Redlegs on the 28th and if not then hopefully any precip holding off until near sunset / sunset and beyond for their 4:10 vs the Nationals along with the parade beforehand.

Current GFS has a front passing thru very early morning of Opening Day so likely a cool but dry day if that model run ends up being correct.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 4:24 pm Good Afternoon and the sun is nice but those wind gusts make it quite chilly. Les not much to add to your post and the gfs is very progressive next week where the Euro and Cmc are slower as they show some blocking east of here. Rooting for the later as this would give us a better shot of decent rains plus and nice warm up Sun and Mon. Later next week we just wait and see how things play out and though I love snow not a fan towards the end of March.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:00 am I think severe weather takes a break the rest of the month for the OV/Midwest. A few warm days ahead, but the combo of warmth/higher dew points will be at a premium or short-lived with the NWflow dominating the pattern the rest of the month

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all and it's LOL @ the 0Z GFS. Looks like it is now with a slower solution for next week. We get a dry and mild Monday then get wet on Tues ending early Wed. Nothing yet from the SPC in terms of severe wx but it's way too early to worry about that since we have to get the timing of the cold front down. Then we get another front for Fri with some rain ending as wrap around snow showers on Sat the day before Easter. Sheesh! CMC is in agreement. Euro not so much for the end of the week system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:39 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all and it's LOL @ the 0Z GFS. Looks like it is now with a slower solution for next week. We get a dry and mild Monday then get wet on Tues ending early Wed. Nothing yet from the SPC in terms of severe wx but it's way too early to worry about that since we have to get the timing of the cold front down. Then we get another front for Fri with some rain ending as wrap around snow showers on Sat the day before Easter. Sheesh! CMC is in agreement. Euro not so much for the end of the week system.

Good Morning Les and your forecast looks good. Late next the Euro does show a weaker system so all three are showing something nearby. Why this longer stretch of colder weather and yes the PV . Over the past month or so very cold in Alaska especially northern Alaska where temps have been nearly 10 degree below normal at least. This air mass has shifted and we are seeing some of that cold air in the eastern half of the country. This will probably continue through the end of the month and then hopefully spring will finally arrive in full force. We needed this air mass earlier in the season and its sort of like the brief one we saw in January that brought in the cold.

The system on Friday looks to be on the lighter side and hopefully 1/4 inch falls. Next week and the first system if it continues the slower process then we can get a decent rainfall. Then late in the week we see where another system decides to go and how much cold air it will bring to the table. Really is a decent set up for late season snows but again you need the perfect track and enough cold to get something more than snow showers. To me this is a true late winter system that tends to give the app mountains a decent amount of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this system as the one early in the week will most likely have a say of where that system heads.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:06 pm 53 as of 12pm. It would ne a nice day if it weren't for the 30 mph winds! Like last year, the windy days are getting old pretty fast.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:06 pm 53 as of 12pm. It would ne a nice day if it weren't for the 30 mph winds! Like last year, the windy days are getting old pretty fast.

Yep, this kind of wind is a pita to get things done . Spraying is out of the question. Clean ups and mulching just seem to take longer

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:06 pm 53 as of 12pm. It would ne a nice day if it weren't for the 30 mph winds! Like last year, the windy days are getting old pretty fast.