Absolute Vorticity

Currently 50 here in G'ville and 1 degree above ILN's progged high.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:26 pm EPS 5 day mean anomalies through March 5




IMG_1478.gif

I hate seeing warmth this time of year. It almost always means things will begin to bud out and wake up, only to be killed later on in the spring by a freeze. It never fails except in 2012.

We needed this cool spell bad from a plant perspective , we were a good 2 weeks ahead schedule in the waking up process. Looks like we’ll be right back there in the coming weeks

Watch it be a White Easter or a cold spell around then. I know it is a joke and it sounds funny, but Mother Nature has been anything but funny as of late.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 2:32 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:26 pm EPS 5 day mean anomalies through March 5




IMG_1478.gif

I hate seeing warmth this time of year. It almost always means things will begin to bud out and wake up, only to be killed later on in the spring by a freeze. It never fails except in 2012.

We needed this cool spell bad from a plant perspective , we were a good 2 weeks ahead schedule in the waking up process. Looks like we’ll be right back there in the coming weeks

Watch it be a White Easter or a cold spell around then. I know it is a joke and it sounds funny, but Mother Nature has been anything but funny as of late.

Easter is March 31st and Reds Opening Day is the 28th.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 2:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 2:32 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:34 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:26 pm EPS 5 day mean anomalies through March 5




IMG_1478.gif

I hate seeing warmth this time of year. It almost always means things will begin to bud out and wake up, only to be killed later on in the spring by a freeze. It never fails except in 2012.

We needed this cool spell bad from a plant perspective , we were a good 2 weeks ahead schedule in the waking up process. Looks like we’ll be right back there in the coming weeks

Watch it be a White Easter or a cold spell around then. I know it is a joke and it sounds funny, but Mother Nature has been anything but funny as of late.

Easter is March 31st and Reds Opening Day is the 28th.

That's a perfect time for it to snow then!

Xinjiang records lowest temperature in history at -52.3 °C (-62.1 °F), China

Both the 00z GFS and Euro advertise a WICKED storm next week. Severe storms to a thump of snow. Highs winds as well. I’ve been talking about this on my page for a while now but man that was a wild run.

The GFS has a weaker solution and slower so the cold air can undercut the moisture behind the cold front. Euro has a stronger storm, more wrapped up so no snow and we get a dry slot instead. Euro would have a better chance at severe IMO over the GFS solution. Until we get there... more enjoyable weather to come minus tomorrow's rain maker.

Good Morning and back from Wisconsin. Wonderful time though you forget the climate in mid-February up there is different than here. No snow falling but like an ice box with the snow on the ground and besides the concrete road surfaces you feel like your in an ice box. Looks like my 3 weeks of wicked weather is not going to happen but we will have shots of cold air but even those are more directed towards the northeast. Plenty of cold to work with in Canada but we still need a way to bring that cold down here. Does that mean no more snow and of course not but we need something similar to last week and part of that is keeping a warm shot first and then have a decent cold front stall south of here. Will check out things later this evening but with the spring type weather heading to the golf course

Welcome back Tim! Today will be a wonderful day for Golf as long as you get it in before the winds pick up this afternoon. I would schedule a tee time for Sunday and Monday too.

52 as of 10:25am at CVG. A lovely day in progress. Even when the winds pick up this afternoon, it still won't feel too bad with temps around 60 this afternoon. After we get wet tomorrow and cool down Fri and Sat, all eyes will be on that Tues - Thurs period next week in terms of heavy rainfall and strong to severe t-storm potential. That should wrap up Feb by that point and Met. Winter too.

12Z GFS continues to have rain chances Tues and Wed, On this run, we have a wave along the front and an upper low to produce a bit of snow on the 29th. That would be interesting.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:26 am 12Z GFS continues to have rain chances Tues and Wed, On this run, we have a wave along the front and an upper low to produce a bit of snow on the 29th. That would be interesting.

GFS also puts down some slushy accumulations late Friday night/early Sat AM. It’s the only model that aggressive with the clipper, though.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:26 am 12Z GFS continues to have rain chances Tues and Wed, On this run, we have a wave along the front and an upper low to produce a bit of snow on the 29th. That would be interesting.

GFS also puts down some slushy accumulations late Friday night/early Sat AM. It’s the only model that aggressive with the clipper, though.

I've been monitoring that little guy for this weekend, but I have kept the forecast dry for now since we don't really have any model support for it as you mentioned.

been looking at the long range , mjo and telliconnections and so forth and I dont see much hope for winter going forward. March is expected to be an above avg temps overall also as we will now be coming down from the el-nino. my towel is in my hand and my arm is cocked back at this point.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:38 pm been looking at the long range , mjo and telliconnections and so forth and I dont see much hope for winter going forward. March is expected to be an above avg temps overall also as we will now be coming down from the el-nino. my towel is in my hand and my arm is cocked back at this point.

I guess you aren't buying the SSW that is going to create blocking and save our winter come mid to late March? You're right. I'm not buying it either LOL Although, a few cold shots of air could still be left in the tank, but they will be in and out much like we have been seeing. We will need a lot of luck for snow that is for sure. Pretty much the same ole same ole, we've seen for most of the winter minus that cold snap in January.

61 now as of 1pm.... soak it up!

I hit 65 today! CVG did also. The record was 70 set back in 1930. 6" of snow fell on this date back in 2015. I remember that month well!

We hit 62 up here in my area.

Comparing last year and this year so far. Probably move up a rank or two for this year by the end of Feb

Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No travel impacts even with it being at night. Pavement temps will be too warm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:45 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:38 pm been looking at the long range , mjo and telliconnections and so forth and I dont see much hope for winter going forward. March is expected to be an above avg temps overall also as we will now be coming down from the el-nino. my towel is in my hand and my arm is cocked back at this point.

I guess you aren't buying the SSW that is going to create blocking and save our winter come mid to late March? You're right. I'm not buying it either LOL Although, a few cold shots of air could still be left in the tank, but they will be in and out much like we have been seeing. We will need a lot of luck for snow that is for sure. Pretty much the same ole same ole, we've seen for most of the winter minus that cold snap in January.

not really no. i just dont have a lot of confidence for much going forward. i feel like we were on the verge of having a nice winter but still failed, like being stuck in phase 7 for too long

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:02 am Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No travel impacts even with it being at night. Pavement temps will be too warm.

GEFS is on board too. Even the Euro has it, hitting counties to our SW.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:45 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 12:38 pm been looking at the long range , mjo and telliconnections and so forth and I dont see much hope for winter going forward. March is expected to be an above avg temps overall also as we will now be coming down from the el-nino. my towel is in my hand and my arm is cocked back at this point.

I guess you aren't buying the SSW that is going to create blocking and save our winter come mid to late March? You're right. I'm not buying it either LOL Although, a few cold shots of air could still be left in the tank, but they will be in and out much like we have been seeing. We will need a lot of luck for snow that is for sure. Pretty much the same ole same ole, we've seen for most of the winter minus that cold snap in January.

not really no. i just dont have a lot of confidence for much going forward. i feel like we were on the verge of having a nice winter but still failed, like being stuck in phase 7 for too long

I've been doing well so far on the MJO front until now. I knew the models biases until the bias finally ended up being correct lol

So far, the rains have been well north of the area. Good news for the drive in. Probably will end up being a wet drive home though. Very mild this morning, currently 57 degrees.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:02 am Add the Canadian to the GFS’s camp for Friday night/Sat morning. I had 50% snow PoPs in my update yesterday and honestly I do buy wetter solutions. Will probably up to likely PoPs in my new update. I could see up to an inch of slushy accum on grass/car tops/etc wherever the little system tracks. No travel impacts even with it being at night. Pavement temps will be too warm.

It seems like all of the models have jumped on board with snow overnight Friday into Saturday.

I'm camping with the scouts, so this should be fun!