Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:55 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:11 am Thanks Trev... that's a good 1-3" snowfall on the Ensembles then. As usual, we shall see!

Right we still have a couple days to fine-tune the forecast. This is probably not going to be the final outcome but as you said it certainly needs to be watched.

I may try my luck at starting a thread for it by tonight or tomorrow if it doesn't fall apart on us.

Lets NOT jinx the storm potential

MattD41 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:55 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:11 am Thanks Trev... that's a good 1-3" snowfall on the Ensembles then. As usual, we shall see!

Right we still have a couple days to fine-tune the forecast. This is probably not going to be the final outcome but as you said it certainly needs to be watched.

I may try my luck at starting a thread for it by tonight or tomorrow if it doesn't fall apart on us.

Lets NOT jinx the storm potential

Oh come on Matt! It's my turn to break something!

So far , cvgland seems to be in the center of least influence from either wave. Like to see a trend from the 12z suite going in a different direction

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:34 am So far , cvgland seems to be in the center of least influence from either wave. Like to see a trend from the 12z suite going in a different direction

Like I mentioned to Trev earlier, us being in no man's land is a huge concern for me.

12Z GFS was better for CVG Land Thurs afternoon and evening. Then round 2 for later Thurs night into Fri morning was decent for folks along and East of the I-75 corridor. I'd like to see the stronger / more north trend continue a bit more but this run wasn't too bad. 0.22" total QPF at CVG.

12Z Canadian is better too. There isn't much of a break between the two waves of snow which is good. It's a much better run for all AV Posters to be honest. Good trends so far on the globals today. HOPEFULLY we can keep this going this week!

12Z GEFS Mean for QPF has also improved from the 6Z run. Hope to see the Euro and EPS trend more favorably later today,

What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

12z runs looking decent. This won’t be a blockbuster snowfall but a couple to a few inches is possible.

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

Also agree.... as it stands right now if the current guidance is correct, I think a 1-3" or if the gods are smiling, a 2-4" type of deal is in the cards. Certainly would be our biggest snowfall to date for the region.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

There will definitely be a ceiling on the ratios as the upper levels will be warming a bit. I use that term loosely as it will still be cold up top.

Should be some nice ratios at the end though.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:48 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

Also agree.... as it stands right now if the current guidance is correct, I think a 1-3" or if the gods are smiling, a 2-4" type of deal is in the cards. Certainly would be our biggest snowfall to date for the region.

I was thinking about 1-3” as an early call as well. Good news is that it isn’t like this system is a week away. It’s only a few days out so we should be able to get a good handle on stuff within 24-36hrs hopefully. I’m planning to have a first call map out tomorrow as that will give me a few more runs to look over by then.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:48 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

Also agree.... as it stands right now if the current guidance is correct, I think a 1-3" or if the gods are smiling, a 2-4" type of deal is in the cards. Certainly would be our biggest snowfall to date for the region.

I was thinking about 1-3” as an early call as well. Good news is that it isn’t like this system is a week away. It’s only a few days out so we should be able to get a good handle on stuff within 24-36hrs hopefully. I’m planning to have a first call map out tomorrow as that will give me a few more runs to look over by then.

Sounds good Trev! We should see how the return flow looks from the Gulf starting on Wed once the current swing and a miss gets out of the way.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:48 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

Also agree.... as it stands right now if the current guidance is correct, I think a 1-3" or if the gods are smiling, a 2-4" type of deal is in the cards. Certainly would be our biggest snowfall to date for the region.

This is one of those rare times that the kuchura maps will be close to actual outcome. There’s no trying to figure out how much qpf is going to be eaten up by this , that and the other. Just need to hold on to that qpf

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:48 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:46 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:44 am

allowat3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:41 am What ratios are we looking at for Thursday if the models continue to favor AV land?

Probably 12:1 or so to start increasing to 15:1 or so.

Agree Trev, 15 would be max

Also agree.... as it stands right now if the current guidance is correct, I think a 1-3" or if the gods are smiling, a 2-4" type of deal is in the cards. Certainly would be our biggest snowfall to date for the region.

This is one of those rare times that the kuchura maps will be close to actual outcome. There’s no trying to figure out how much qpf is going to be eaten up by this , that and the other. Just need to hold on to that qpf

Exactly! It's going to depend on how much return flow we get from the Gulf with the southern wave, or the first wave. Hopefully it will be as far north as we are seeing currently, if not a bit more. Second... the strength and track of the northern piece, or round 2. Ideally, we'd like to see some kind of slight phasing between the two but that is probably asking too much with the fast flow.

12Z GEFS Mean had 0.30" for most folks. Not bad... 12Z UKIE has 0.20" for folks S of the River and I-70 Crew but there was a screw zone gap in between the two areas where less then a tenth of an inch occurs.

What do windchills look like the next couple of
Mornings.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:38 pm What do windchills look like the next couple of
Mornings.

0 to -10 in my opinion.

I'm busy working so if anyone could post the QPF that the 12Z Euro showed for Thurs / Fri that would be wonderful. Thanks!

Both EU/Eps holding around .20” for the region. I think there still that hint of CVGland being in that “no man’s land” of influence

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 2:13 pm Both EU/Eps holding around .20” for the region. I think there still that hint of CVGland being in that “no man’s land” of influence

Thanks for the info! The majority of the models today were a step in the right direction. Was hoping the Euro would follow suit. but that is still not terrible. The UKIE showed the "No man's land" scenario too. All we can do is continue to monitor the trends and go from there.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:49 pm I'm busy working so if anyone could post the QPF that the 12Z Euro showed for Thurs / Fri that would be wonderful. Thanks!

Here’s both - snowfall and QPF

Thanks Aaron! Much appreciated, Sir!