Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:55 pm The location of the heavier area of rain has shifted which leaves Cincinnati on the lighter side in much of today’s guidance. Something to watch.

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 6:53 pm My wife swears she just saw lightning in Maineville. Possible?

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 6:22 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:55 pm The location of the heavier area of rain has shifted which leaves Cincinnati on the lighter side in much of today’s guidance. Something to watch.

I agree Trev and this has always been my problem. I felt no confidence in the models and that is why I had such a wide spread. I do though believe the snow showers on Monday are still in play.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:52 am Good Morning and some more needed rain for everyone locally. Today will be dreary December day and the rain will end this morning. Snow showers still look likely on Monday. During the day especially if there are some around mid-day could be snow/rain shower and even if all snow don't look for many problems. After the 3pm hour is when we need to watch for snow showers and some could be moderate to heavy for a short period which can lead to some slick roads and bad visibility for a short period.

Tuesday we will be cold but a milder period for the remainder of the week and then we watch for a few systems that could happen over the Christmas weekend. At the moment nothing heavy but also rain looks like the precip type. Heading towards the New Year is when we start to see some interesting weather so stay tune as models will change quite a bit this week as we get closer.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:05 am Good morning all! My Lions certainly took care of business. Weather wise, I'm glad we got a nice soaking rain. I am also concerned for the ride home tomorrow. Hope there are aren't too many wrecks! Then starting Wed we warm up and the 50s return for Christmas. I hope we can track some more interesting weather for the week between Christmas and New Year's. I'm on vacation then so I'll have more time to post!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 11:36 am Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:03 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 11:36 am Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

Classic case of the airports not receiving the heavier rains. The lightest shade is 0.60", so plenty of that to go around and the darker greens are near an inch. The models did a good job up until yesterday of having an enhanced band over the tri-state. Pretty decent verification.

Of course radar estimates are estimates. But with the radar upgrades over recent years they have gotten pretty accurate. Plus there was no strong convection (and hail cores) to contaminate the data. Overall a solid forecast from everyone, but the heavier modeled totals did in fact pan out for some areas in the tri-state. Such is the nature of the game with precipitation banding.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:08 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:03 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 11:36 am Totals for rain event around the region as of 11am ,

here .30” CVG- .57” Kday- .29” ILN- .28” kcmh- .60”

Classic case of the airports not receiving the heavier rains. The lightest shade is 0.60", so plenty of that to go around and the darker greens are near an inch. The models did a good job up until yesterday of having an enhanced band over the tri-state. Pretty decent verification.

Of course radar estimates are estimates. But with the radar upgrades over recent years they have gotten pretty accurate. Plus there was no strong convection (and hail cores) to contaminate the data. Overall a solid forecast from everyone, but the heavier modeled totals did in fact pan out for some areas in the tri-state. Such is the nature of the game with precipitation banding.

I usually use the OHRFC observational map . I assume they have gauges covering the basin and aren’t estimates.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:05 pm Lightning tomorrow, anyone? High-res models are picking up on it. Actually is fairly typical to have some of that going on during "peak heating" under a strong ULL.