Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:10 pm 12Z GFS really offers up no changes to my thinking for Sunday. Light rain ending as a few flakes Sun night into early Mon morning.

I agree Les but the CMC is much more bullish on the snow showers for Monday and I agree because this is a nice shot of cold air and though not expecting much in the way of accumulation I could see a dusting at times around here.

really nice perfect fall day today. ive been so lucky this season and to get so much done outside. the heavy rains Tuesday night really helped out in the precip dept. since we have been below avg the entire fall but temps have been average to slightly below. would really like to see fall hang on till late December . will be nice however to see some flakes falling next month

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:10 pm 12Z GFS really offers up no changes to my thinking for Sunday. Light rain ending as a few flakes Sun night into early Mon morning.

I agree Les but the CMC is much more bullish on the snow showers for Monday and I agree because this is a nice shot of cold air and though not expecting much in the way of accumulation I could see a dusting at times around here.

CMC has been the most bullish with the NAM being the least enthused. GFS and Euro are in between basically. We will start getting into the HRRR's wheelhouse tomorrow for some more short term guidance. One thing we can agree on is the further north one goes in our forecast area, the better the chances for not only seeing snow but getting that dusting also.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 12:21 pm really nice perfect fall day today. ive been so lucky this season and to get so much done outside. the heavy rains Tuesday night really helped out in the precip dept. since we have been below avg the entire fall but temps have been average to slightly below. would really like to see fall hang on till late December . will be nice however to see some flakes falling next month

It's a nice day here too in the 40s with a light north breeze. I have one more leaf grinding to go once the oaks finish dropping and my mowing is done for the season. Almost time for me to throw up a few Christmas Lights too. As we are discussing in our new December thread, IMO December won't be an all out torch like we once thought. Please see that thread for the Meteorological reasoning.

Nothing shocking from the 12Z Euro.

Cvg has a shot at a top ten driest November. Might miss by a hair , either way another very dry month for some in the OV

12Z GFS and Euro have around a tenth of an inch of QPF for Sunday's system. The 18Z NAM has around 0.25" which is likely overdone.

Looks like Snow and possibly significant amounts likely for north east Ohio.

Latest hazard warning from NWS.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
307 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2023
OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-252015-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
307 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2023
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Steady to heavy lake-effect snow is possible in the primary snowbelt
Monday through Monday night. Winter weather alerts may be needed
with future forecast updates. Additional lake-effect snow is
possible through at least Tuesday night.

I saw that Jeff! Looking good for your hood Monday and Tuesday at the very least, perhaps even lingering thru Wed as well. If everything comes together, it could be a nice start to the season for the LES zones. Looking forward to your videos and / or pics!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:14 pm 12Z GFS and Euro have around a tenth of an inch of QPF for Sunday's system. The 18Z NAM has around 0.25" which is likely overdone.

18Z GFS also coming in wetter now with 0.20" of QPF.

43 at CVG today. 45 here. We are dropping nicely now with 35 degrees attm as of the 7pm reading. Upper 20s expected by morning. We would be much colder if it weren't for some cloud cover as dews have dropped into the upper teens.

Good morning all! 29 at CVG, 28 here this morning. Clouds kept us from bottoming out. We will see a touch of sun today along with the clouds but it won't be as sunny as it was yesterday as our next system begins to approach. I have no changes to my call. Mainly a rain event with a few flakes possible later Sun night into early M on morning. No accumulation or issues expected. North of I-70 is your best chance for snow and any light dustings. I think anything in the 1-3" range falls north of the ILN forecast area. Then we are cold and dry to end ?November.

Not sure if I mentioned this but the bird migration has been way below normal in my area during the fall season. Sure a few flocks here and there but for the most part have not seen the normal migration. Just wonder if this just me or is anyone seeing the same lack of birds this fall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 8:23 am Not sure if I mentioned this but the bird migration has been way below normal in my area during the fall season. Sure a few flocks here and there but for the most part have not seen the normal migration. Just wonder if this just me or is anyone seeing the same lack of birds this fall.

I’ve actually been thinking just the opposite.
(Disclaimer) I have been outside more this fall do to a drier season.
Low here was 25.

Mjr wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 9:21 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 8:23 am Not sure if I mentioned this but the bird migration has been way below normal in my area during the fall season. Sure a few flocks here and there but for the most part have not seen the normal migration. Just wonder if this just me or is anyone seeing the same lack of birds this fall.

I’ve actually been thinking just the opposite.
(Disclaimer) I have been outside more this fall do to a drier season.
Low here was 25.

Thanks for the reply. I wonder if the migration pattern is just different this year. I have spent quite a bit of time outside as well. I know very little about the patterns overall but this is the first year I remember where the number has been so low. Love to hear from somebody that has knowledge of the migration patterns because only thing I know is what happens in my back yard every year lol.

Finally up to 32 as of 10am. Clouds are trying to thin some now esp in KY. Clouds are already pushing into MO ahead of tomorrow's system so any sunshine that we do see should cloud back up later this afternoon. Still thinking similar highs as we saw yesterday, low to mid 40s.

Currently 40 here in G'ville.

47 here today, down to 45 now after the clouds moved in. Looks like CVG topped out at 45.

CVG reached 45, DAY 42 and CMH 43 today.

Radar this evening shows a nice swath of snow from Central OK to KS to MO to IA on up into MN. That will stay to our NW. Rain associated with the cold front over Eastern OK and TX is what is headed our way by midday tomorrow.

Some of the craziest college football plays over the last 3 days I’ve ever seen , love it!!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:19 pm Some of the craziest college football plays over the last 3 days I’ve ever seen , love it!!!

Definitely! Got a close one right now with Wash and Wash State.

Good morning all! Mid to U30s across the area so all rain is expected for Cincinnati as our next system moves in today. For the I-70 Crew, perhaps a few flakes, ice pellets before going over to rain but no issues are expected. Precip amounts should be 0.25" or less for most areas. The bulk of the rain will be late morning thru the mid afternoon hours just in time for the Bengals game. We'll see how the weather impacts play today with the Squealers.

We should end the event with a few flurries later tonight into early Monday as temps drop but again no issues are expected. Then we are cold and dry until we hit December.

Light rain has begun here, 43 degrees.

As of 12pm, we're on the board now with 0.01" of rain falling at CVG and my hood.