Absolute Vorticity

Hope everyone gets in on the action this evening. Models are starting to back off somewhat with the heat later this week. Sure we should see 90 degrees but getting to the mid-90's imo seems unlikely. I understand not everyone is getting the nice rainfall but over the past month many areas in the mid-west,Oh Valley and Tn Valley have got some decent rains and this leads to better vegetation and yes higher dew points which in the end will lead to some very muggy conditions but heat above 92 seems not likely. This is nothing new to the models and this has happened it seems every summer for the past 10-20 years. We have the same problem in the winter when they go to high on days where a cold front pushes through and we end up with clouds all day and temps 3-5 degrees below the highs predicted by the models.

Btw I checked in with the Phoenix NWS and even after this latest heat wave they are still 1 degree below normal for the year and Las Vegas is 2 degrees below normal. Love to see CNN report on this but never going to happen.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:07 pm Les glad to see you got in on the action. 0.62 so far and I am very happy to share the wealth.

Me too Tim! I was losing my lawn in the front yard. It should be salvaged now! With regards to hail, none here but on the way home yesterday.

EDIT: Whoops! I posted too early without finishing my sentence. On our way home yesterday, we encountered a severe cell going thru Columbus with 60 mph winds, very heavy flooding rains and some small hail. Glad I was in the back seat and didn't have to pull a boat through that one!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:19 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:07 pm Les glad to see you got in on the action. 0.62 so far and I am very happy to share the wealth.

Me too Tim! I was losing my lawn in the front yard. It should be salvaged now! With regards to hail, none here but on the way home yesterday.

Les I had a few days where it got a little crispy in the lawn facing the south but I have been very lucky in terms of rain this summer and the lawn looks better now than in the spring.

More of the same here , misses north and south with a few sprinkles here. Anyone that has any future outdoor parties, weddings etc. planned , I’m available for a small fee guaranteeing it won’t rain at your event. I will just stay in the car in the parking lot for duration of event

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:21 pm More of the same here , misses north and south with a few sprinkles here. Anyone that has any future outdoor parties, weddings etc. planned , I’m available for a small fee guaranteeing it won’t rain at your event. I will just stay in the car in the parking lot for duration of event

Lol and that is how I felt last August when most folks got some decent rains but I was high and dry and then everyone got dry late August through October. I did lose some of my newly planted grass seed last year and part of the reason was I happened to be in SC for a period and could not get the lawn watered. Replanted this spring and looked bad early on but much better as of late.

Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:21 pm More of the same here , misses north and south with a few sprinkles here. Anyone that has any future outdoor parties, weddings etc. planned , I’m available for a small fee guaranteeing it won’t rain at your event. I will just stay in the car in the parking lot for duration of event

Lol and that is how I felt last August when most folks got some decent rains but I was high and dry and then everyone got dry late August through October. I did lose some of my newly planted grass seed last year and part of the reason was I happened to be in SC for a period and could not get the lawn watered. Replanted this spring and looked bad early on but much better as of late.

LOL! All joking aside, Bgoney, you are probably the one who needs the rain the most out of the people who post regularly on here. Really pulling for you this evening!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:28 pm Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

Maybe you and Bgoney can get together and try to sell your domes to some folks in New England who would love to have a dome over their houses about now thanks to the persist cool and rainy weather they've had for a lot of the summer.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:21 pm More of the same here , misses north and south with a few sprinkles here. Anyone that has any future outdoor parties, weddings etc. planned , I’m available for a small fee guaranteeing it won’t rain at your event. I will just stay in the car in the parking lot for duration of event

Lol and that is how I felt last August when most folks got some decent rains but I was high and dry and then everyone got dry late August through October. I did lose some of my newly planted grass seed last year and part of the reason was I happened to be in SC for a period and could not get the lawn watered. Replanted this spring and looked bad early on but much better as of late.

LOL! All joking aside, Bgoney, you are probably the one who needs the rain the most out of the people who post regularly on here. Really pulling for you this evening!

I haven’t seen heavy rain since the first week of May. Any rains have been light to moderate in intensity. No soakers at all. Radar not Looking good atm for Mby

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:36 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:28 pm Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

Maybe you and Bgoney can get together and try to sell your domes to some folks in New England who would love to have a dome over their houses about now thanks to the persist cool and rainy weather they've had for a lot of the summer.

Almost a year without a summer up there and they will get some warmer air but it looks to be replaced by another trough.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:36 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:28 pm Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

Maybe you and Bgoney can get together and try to sell your domes to some folks in New England who would love to have a dome over their houses about now thanks to the persist cool and rainy weather they've had for a lot of the summer.

Yep!

Looks like next chances are Wed and Sat.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:21 pm More of the same here , misses north and south with a few sprinkles here. Anyone that has any future outdoor parties, weddings etc. planned , I’m available for a small fee guaranteeing it won’t rain at your event. I will just stay in the car in the parking lot for duration of event

Lol and that is how I felt last August when most folks got some decent rains but I was high and dry and then everyone got dry late August through October. I did lose some of my newly planted grass seed last year and part of the reason was I happened to be in SC for a period and could not get the lawn watered. Replanted this spring and looked bad early on but much better as of late.

LOL! All joking aside, Bgoney, you are probably the one who needs the rain the most out of the people who post regularly on here. Really pulling for you this evening!

I haven’t seen heavy rain since the first week of May. Any rains have been light to moderate in intensity. No soakers at all. Radar not Looking good atm for Mby

Oh wow! I didn't know it was that bad. Damn! We need to set up a Go Fund Me page or something here to pay for better explosives. Your Dome is one tough SOB to break!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:36 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:28 pm Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

Maybe you and Bgoney can get together and try to sell your domes to some folks in New England who would love to have a dome over their houses about now thanks to the persist cool and rainy weather they've had for a lot of the summer.

Almost a year without a summer up there and they will get some warmer air but it looks to be replaced by another trough.

No doubt Tim! They have had trough after trough after trough. If it were winter instead of summer those folks would have had a banner season!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:52 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:33 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:23 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:21 pm More of the same here , misses north and south with a few sprinkles here. Anyone that has any future outdoor parties, weddings etc. planned , I’m available for a small fee guaranteeing it won’t rain at your event. I will just stay in the car in the parking lot for duration of event

Lol and that is how I felt last August when most folks got some decent rains but I was high and dry and then everyone got dry late August through October. I did lose some of my newly planted grass seed last year and part of the reason was I happened to be in SC for a period and could not get the lawn watered. Replanted this spring and looked bad early on but much better as of late.

LOL! All joking aside, Bgoney, you are probably the one who needs the rain the most out of the people who post regularly on here. Really pulling for you this evening!

I haven’t seen heavy rain since the first week of May. Any rains have been light to moderate in intensity. No soakers at all. Radar not Looking good atm for Mby

Oh wow! I didn't know it was that bad. Damn! We need to set up a Go Fund Me page or something here to pay for better explosives. Your Dome is one tough SOB to break!

I could come over and do a rain dance but it looks like my normal dancing and its not pretty

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:36 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:28 pm Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

Maybe you and Bgoney can get together and try to sell your domes to some folks in New England who would love to have a dome over their houses about now thanks to the persist cool and rainy weather they've had for a lot of the summer.

Yep!

Looks like next chances are Wed and Sat.

The chances don't look too awfully high to me for the remainder of the week. Hopefully the folks who need it can get it with a little luck.

Les models have been showing a nice mcs for sometime in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota for a while and this could help us on Wednesday. With a stronger ridge in the central plains we could be in a nice place later Wednesday afternoon as we may be able to ignite the leftover boundary from earlier in the day. I do believe any MCS's that form you will see a big drop to the southeast on the edge of the ridge and that is where we should be over the next several days. Again no way to pinpoint until the mcs develops but at least there is some hope of more rain. Again this weekend a cold front should try and work south towards us and that is why I expect Friday and Saturday to be the hottest days for us and then maybe we can get the front to sort of lay across the Ohio Valley for a few days.

Congrats on those who got hit this evening! Rooting for Eric and Bgoney to cash in. I think my dome must have moved!

Another quick downpour, 0.25 in the rain guage. Nice cool outflow from the storm to the south

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:01 pm Les models have been showing a nice mcs for sometime in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota for a while and this could help us on Wednesday. With a stronger ridge in the central plains we could be in a nice place later Wednesday afternoon as we may be able to ignite the leftover boundary from earlier in the day. I do believe any MCS's that form you will see a big drop to the southeast on the edge of the ridge and that is where we should be over the next several days. Again no way to pinpoint until the mcs develops but at least there is some hope of more rain. Again this weekend a cold front should try and work south towards us and that is why I expect Friday and Saturday to be the hottest days for us and then maybe we can get the front to sort of lay across the Ohio Valley for a few days.

The GFS on its last run tried to get some rain in here before it falls apart. The Euro kept the MS well to our north so a swing and a miss. No doubt the solutions will change. I am keeping things on the low side for now until we get closer. Would love to raise POPS and lower my high temps. I have no issue doing that as you know.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:05 pm Another quick downpour, 0.25 in the rain guage. Nice cool outflow from the storm to the south

You sure have been on a nice roll as of late!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:04 pm Congrats on those who got hit this evening! Rooting for Eric and Bgoney to cash in. I think my dome must have moved!

Did you ship the front side of the dome to Greenville and the backside of it to Williamsburg?

From Sun ...

1930 100 1 NW Summitville Madison IN 4034 8565 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.) Time estimated from radar. (IND)

1944 100 3 W Gaston Delaware IN 4032 8556 NWS Employee reported quarter size hail along I-69 Near County RD 950N intersection. (IND)

2002 150 1 NNW Ball State University Delaware IN 4021 8542 (IND)

2002 125 3 SE Gaston Delaware IN 4028 8547 Public report of 1.25 inch hail NW of Muncie. (IND)

2025 100 1 SSE Prairie Creek Reservoir Delaware IN 4011 8528 Public report of hail up to 1.00 inches. (IND)

2026 100 2 W Prairie Creek Reservoir Delaware IN 4013 8533 Public report of 1 inch hail. (IND)

2036 100 1 SSE Prairie Creek Reservoir Delaware IN 4011 8528 Corrects previous hail report from 1 SSE Prairie Creek Reservoir. Public report of hail up to 1.00 inches. (IND)

2046 UNK 1 SW Prairie Creek Reservoir Delaware IN 4012 8530 Late report of thunderstorm winds that downed a tree on Burlington Drive. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

2049 UNK 1 NW Upper Arlington Franklin OH 4004 8309 A tree was downed onto the road at the intersection of McCoy Road at Clairmont Road. (ILN)

2052 63 3 W Riverlea Franklin OH 4008 8308 ASOS station KOSU Columbus Ohio State University Airport. (ILN)

2054 100 1 N Upper Arlington Franklin OH 4004 8307 Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). (ILN)

2108 UNK 2 W Minerva Park Franklin OH 4008 8297 A pine tree fell into power equipment. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2115 UNK 4 E Powell Delaware OH 4015 8300 Multiple trees down in a subdivision near Polaris Parkway and Old State Road. One home with some minor siding damage. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

2120 UNK 4 WNW Spencer Owen IN 3931 8684 Late report of thunderstorm winds that downed a tree on Burlington Drive. Time estimated from radar. Power lines were also downed on Country Club Road. (IND)

2152 UNK POWELL DELAWARE OH 4016 8307 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. HOUSE HIT BY LIGHTNING. (ILN)

2250 UNK 2 NW Sunman Ripley IN 3925 8512 Trees blown down on Spades Road. (ILN)

2258 UNK 3 NNW Sunman Ripley IN 3928 8512 Damage to a pool and bath house roof. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

2322 UNK Sunman Ripley IN 3924 8509 A tree was downed in Sunman. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

2355 UNK Milan Ripley IN 3913 8513 Several trees down in the Milan area ... including one that fell on a truck. (ILN)

0000 UNK Milan Ripley IN 3913 8513 Several trees down in the Milan area. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

0002 UNK 1 SE Milan Ripley IN 3912 8512 A tree damaged a house when it fell on it. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

0025 UNK 3 N Riverlea Franklin OH 4012 8303 Social media picture of a large tree downed. (ILN)

0053 100 4 WNW Jefferson Madison OH 3997 8336 (ILN)

0722 UNK 1 SSW Devore Owen IN 3941 8677 Late report of thunderstorm winds that downed several additional trees in Owen County from overnight storm. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:54 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:36 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:28 pm Just my "luck" as that cell went into northern Darke.

Maybe you and Bgoney can get together and try to sell your domes to some folks in New England who would love to have a dome over their houses about now thanks to the persist cool and rainy weather they've had for a lot of the summer.

Yep!

Looks like next chances are Wed and Sat.

The chances don't look too awfully high to me for the remainder of the week. Hopefully the folks who need it can get it with a little luck.

I know Bro. About a 30% - 40% POPs Wed and Sat.

Same here

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:04 pm Congrats on those who got hit this evening! Rooting for Eric and Bgoney to cash in. I think my dome must have moved!

Congrats to have those who have cashed in!

Thank you, Mike! It looks like a 30% to 40% POPs for Wed and Sat.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:07 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:04 pm Congrats on those who got hit this evening! Rooting for Eric and Bgoney to cash in. I think my dome must have moved!

Did you ship the front side of the dome to Greenville and the backside of it to Williamsburg?