Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all! 0.20" at CVG with similar amounts here. A bit more then I expected but we'll take it! 58 as of 7am at CVG headed for the 60s! Welcome to April everybody! Get ready for more showers and of course the wind. It is picking up a bit right now IMBY but still relastively tame only gusting into the 20s mph. In a few more hours, it'll be cranking and once the front moves thru, winds will be howling around lunch time into the afternoon and evening hours before we calm down overnight.

Strange seeing no snow on the radar this time of year but I am watching later this month / early March closely. I have a funny feeling that winter honestly is not quite done yet despite this week and next.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 7:46 am Good morning all! 0.20" at CVG with similar amounts here. A bit more then I expected but we'll take it! 58 as of 7am at CVG headed for the 60s! Welcome to April everybody! Get ready for more showers and of course the wind. It is picking up a bit right now IMBY but still relastively tame only gusting into the 20s mph. In a few more hours, it'll be cranking and once the front moves thru, winds will be howling around lunch time into the afternoon and evening hours before we calm down overnight.

Strange seeing no snow on the radar this time of year but I am watching later this month / early March closely. I have a funny feeling that winter honestly is not quite done yet despite this week and next.

Good Morning Les and I believe you are correct as spring imo will be delayed once again which is no doubt been a trend over the past 10-15 years it seems. As we get closer to the weekend the chances of snow in SC are ramping up and with the mountains,dynamic cooling, colder air filling in and probably some banding of precip looks like I may get lucky and see some accumulation. Leaving Friday morning and it looks like the period Saturday night into Sunday is the period of possible snow. No doubt they will see some snow in the mountains and will just see how far south the snow can travel. The Euro is further northwest and brings snow into southeast Kentucky

This band should pack quite a punch when it arrives, even though it looks rather benign on radar.

I doubt there will be any reports of thunder in the area, but it’ll be a gusty band of showers no less.

Then synoptic high winds the remainder of the afternoon. Hope not too many folks lose power!

Already have had a gust of 32mph at 907am

Man the clouds are ripping by. It’s gonna be here soon folks.

Seeing a nice uptick in convection east of Indy. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some t’storm warnings issued soon. Granted it’s a classic case of low-topped convection so how much thunder will there actually be? Probably little to none. One of those funky middle areas but still supports a t’storm warning. We’ll see!

im still going with the last week to be more favorable for accumulating snow. i know its a bad winter but I just cant see going both Jan and Feb snowless. but if that does happen I will not be shocked to have a March to remember

64 in Lebanon now

Calm as can be here. Sun trying to break out.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 7:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 7:46 am Good morning all! 0.20" at CVG with similar amounts here. A bit more then I expected but we'll take it! 58 as of 7am at CVG headed for the 60s! Welcome to April everybody! Get ready for more showers and of course the wind. It is picking up a bit right now IMBY but still relastively tame only gusting into the 20s mph. In a few more hours, it'll be cranking and once the front moves thru, winds will be howling around lunch time into the afternoon and evening hours before we calm down overnight.

Strange seeing no snow on the radar this time of year but I am watching later this month / early March closely. I have a funny feeling that winter honestly is not quite done yet despite this week and next.

Good Morning Les and I believe you are correct as spring imo will be delayed once again which is no doubt been a trend over the past 10-15 years it seems. As we get closer to the weekend the chances of snow in SC are ramping up and with the mountains,dynamic cooling, colder air filling in and probably some banding of precip looks like I may get lucky and see some accumulation. Leaving Friday morning and it looks like the period Saturday night into Sunday is the period of possible snow. No doubt they will see some snow in the mountains and will just see how far south the snow can travel. The Euro is further northwest and brings snow into southeast Kentucky

Tim, the event will most certainly be elevation dependent and since you are not in the mountains, you may just get a cold rain out of this one. I hope that isn't the case and that dynamic cooling can save the day but if I were a betting man (and I am LOL) I'd like to be in the mountains of extreme SE KY, NE TN, SW VA, etc for this event. The southern Apps can do well with this set up.

Thanks Trev for the posts this morning. Been busy working. 63 as of 10am at CVG with a gust to 37. No doubt gusts in excess of 40 mph are already occurring and we could see the mid 60s ahead of the front. Looks like the front is approaching our Western counties now so hang on tight! The winds will crank with that line of showers and after the front passes as well. As discussed, hope all can keep their power on!

Per BG, 2 hours ago LOU gusted to 48 mph.

65 currently in Lebanon.

Seeing a bit of sunshine breaking thru here prior to the front closing in. The wind is roaring! As of this post, CVG is at 64 with a peak gust of 37.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 10:52 am Seeing a bit of sunshine breaking thru here prior to the front closing in. The wind is roaring! As of this post, CVG is at 64 with a peak gust of 37.

Makes sense there Les. I’m NE and in the band you had a bit ago. You’re in a break now but the main line is approaching from the west. It’s def picking up here now as well. Buckle up lol

64 as of 11am at CVG with a new peak gust to 41.4 mph.

The wind has picked up some here. Nothing crazy yet. Guessing 10 to 20mph.

Leaves keep rolling on by as the wind continues to gust over 40 mph IMBY. I don't see much timber action which is good. Usually with the old trees I have I spend a lot of time picking up dead limbs and branches. Maybe it's because a lot of them have already came down with past wind events this winter. This winter may not be remembered for actual wintry weather, but I will always remember it for how windy it has been.

Full sunshine here now for a brief time.

A quick check of the longer term and the MJO is solidly in Phase 4 as of 2/7 per the Aussies. I'm still seeing a lot of model support for Phase 7, and then 8 mid to late month. I don't trust the modeling, you guys know how I feel about that but I still will talk about the data that is being presented. In addition, Bgoney has done a great job keeping us updated on the PV and any potential SSW event causing a split. I ran across this little nugget online today and as you can see, the GFS Ensemble continues to gain more and more members showing a complete wind reversal which would cause the PV to split into 2 pieces. Where these pieces go and where does the cold air go remains to be seen.


Just keep in mind that a SSW event... PV split... etc. does not mean that we will see cold and snow in March. Remember, the event has to occur first and then it takes a while to actually see what impacts it brings. I will say this. Should this occur and should the MJO get into the correct phase (hoping to see 8 of course) then could we see a sustainable wintry period in March? It is quite possible. All we can do is continue to monitor the trends and go from there.

Now back to your warm and windy weather which is already in progress.

The front is moving thru our Western OH counties and SE Indy counties now. A period of more intense winds should be incoming.

67 here in Lebanon.

CVG checking in at 65 with a peak gust now up to 46 mph.