Absolute Vorticity

Add the 12Z GFS to the list. Models are def agreeing upon a track now for the surface low tomorrow. 12z GFS is a little further NE with that LES plume right down I-74 basically and into my hood, Westsiders, etc. So there is some disagreement (as to be expected) for Friday with regards to the wind flow off of the Lake.

Updated Day 2 Severe wx outlook from the SPC has no changes. Marginal risk S of Boone, Kenton, and Campbell co's which makes perfect sense based on the data tracking the low along the River and I-71 corridors.

i miss the days when the GFS constantly shows 365 hour snowstorms. maybe next week the model will start throwing us some long range bones again

12Z Euro is basically in line as well for tomorrow and Friday. So for next week... we've got about three different systems to deal with. We should mainly see rain with all three. Late Monday into Tues morning. Thursday. Then next weekend. Timing can change the further out in time you go but a rough estimate from this distance yields these days as the potential time periods to get wet. Then, we'll see where we go from there in terms of the new pattern.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:12 pm i miss the days when the GFS constantly shows 365 hour snowstorms. maybe next week the model will start throwing us some long range bones again

That... and over here in the Ohio Valley, it has been AGES since we've had a decent Alberta Clipper pattern. We used to get them more frequently years ago. The last 4 or 5 years, they have basically been almost non-existent. They would generally produce your typical 1-3" or 2-4" type snows. On occasion, you'd get a stronger piece of energy that would be able to dive more southward to tap into the Gulf for a bigger snowfall. That is what happened in Feb 2010, the "Super Clipper" pattern that we had which produced the snowiest Feb on record at CVG. We just don't see those types of patterns very much anymore. The Pacific Jet the last several winters has been relentless and that is a huge part of the problem for Eastern US snow lovers. If we can ever get a period where the Pacific Jet is weaker, then our chances of scoring bigger snows goes up. Will we see that happen this winter? We should have a window coming up. How long that window stays open is up in the air.

We're saturated now IMBY with light rain as a brief shower moves thru. Winds are S now as milder air begins to flood into the region ahead of our low for tomorrow which is currently at 1002 MB over SE Colorado.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:13 pm 12Z Euro is basically in line as well for tomorrow and Friday. So for next week... we've got about three different systems to deal with. We should mainly see rain with all three. Late Monday into Tues morning. Thursday. Then next weekend. Timing can change the further out in time you go but a rough estimate from this distance yields these days as the potential time periods to get wet. Then, we'll see where we go from there in terms of the new pattern.

This month has been pretty easy or straightforward to forecast with a good amount of lead time without the cold air to throw a wrench into things.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:13 pm 12Z Euro is basically in line as well for tomorrow and Friday. So for next week... we've got about three different systems to deal with. We should mainly see rain with all three. Late Monday into Tues morning. Thursday. Then next weekend. Timing can change the further out in time you go but a rough estimate from this distance yields these days as the potential time periods to get wet. Then, we'll see where we go from there in terms of the new pattern.

This month has been pretty easy or straightforward to forecast with a good amount of lead time without the cold air to throw a wrench into things.

A like to call this boring lol. A nice shower at the moment.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:13 pm 12Z Euro is basically in line as well for tomorrow and Friday. So for next week... we've got about three different systems to deal with. We should mainly see rain with all three. Late Monday into Tues morning. Thursday. Then next weekend. Timing can change the further out in time you go but a rough estimate from this distance yields these days as the potential time periods to get wet. Then, we'll see where we go from there in terms of the new pattern.

This month has been pretty easy or straightforward to forecast with a good amount of lead time without the cold air to throw a wrench into things.

Yep! When you're in a cutter pattern, they almost always are modeled pretty well in the medium and sometimes even the long range. Get some cold air lurking close by and / or involved and good luck! It just always seems to work out that way.

Good Afternoon and I believe we are getting to the point where the operational models will start seeing the cold coming in for the last 10 days of the month. Many things to like going forward and the one thing we don't know is if the Polar Vortex will split. Signs are starting to show up that later this month the process will begin but as we know this is still one of the hardest things to predict in advance but some signs to point to a Polar Vortex split or at least weakening of the winds. Will worry about that towards the end of the month but with the mjo going into phases 8-2 over the next couple of weeks and with the time delay we are seeing then around the 20th or 21st a more seasonal cold should get us through until early February. Since the mjo is not a strong wave showing up but at least in the area where we can get some winter weather. I have been thinking about posting this earlier this week but finally I have the confidence that the last 10 days of the month we will have winter returning.

I know Les and I had it this weekend but we gave in last week knowing it was too early. I feel really confident in putting this out and will be sending my neighbors and friends a weather update either today or on Thursday with my thoughts for next week through the end of the month.

Glad to see your confidence growing Tim! During the transitionary period, maybe something cooking (as in a rain to snow scenario) around the 22-23rd time period. I see nothing but plain rain until that time (not counting the snow shower action this Fri. Talking solely about next week). Also agree that it's seasonal cold air and not arctic in nature. We shall see by months end or early Feb if that doesn't get more involved. If the MJO is going to cooperate, we'll know by early Feb for sure. In terms of the PV, I am not sold on a split. That is just too early to call in my opinion. Could we see a stretching of the PV like back in December? Sure. I can buy that. We've really got to see a complete reversal of the winds for the PV to actually split which is much tougher to do. Then the lag effects can be several weeks after that. So maybe by mid to late Feb, with regards to that? All speculation from the both of us on some of this stuff since it's only Jan 11th but I enjoy talking about this kind of stuff. It helps us all to learn more about meteorology and the weather that impacts our lives on a daily basis.

Great Post Les and no doubt we need something big to get the PV to split but this season has been one of extremes so you never know. I do see the winds though weakening later this month and this could lead to a stretching like you mentioned or can we get the complete split but then where in the lower latitudes do we see this the coldest of air go. So we get a little snow on Friday and it will look like January and then I believe by the following weekend the models will tend colder and I believe that gives us a better chance of snow. So if my thoughts are correct the weekend of the 20th and 21st the chances of snow should be higher than models show today.

No arguments here with the 21st+- a day . Key words of course are "seasonal cold". The trough coming in at that time is out of the NW and we know that air is not yet arctic , so it shouldn't have an arctic bight to it . Although compared to what we've had before that it will feel colder

Already seeing the signs of northern western and central Canada getting cold next week while eastern Canada warms up. This is usually a good sign that at some decent cold is heading this way. Average temps around that time and only a guess is highs probably in the 36-38 range and lows in the 21-23 range so its about the coldest time of year. One other area is Alaska and though it will be cold next week its really going to stay near or above average so the cold coming across the poles does not look its headed for them. Will spend more time this weekend but not during the nfl games of course.

Went back to 1960(my lifetime), for warmest mean first 21 days Jan. With 11 days to go , it's pretty much a lock we make top 10 with the above normal temps upcoming during those 11 days

Great posts guys! No doubt a Top Ten January is in the cards and a little more patience is required for snow lovers. I'll post more soon!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:46 pm Great Post Les and no doubt we need something big to get the PV to split but this season has been one of extremes so you never know. I do see the winds though weakening later this month and this could lead to a stretching like you mentioned or can we get the complete split but then where in the lower latitudes do we see this the coldest of air go. So we get a little snow on Friday and it will look like January and then I believe by the following weekend the models will tend colder and I believe that gives us a better chance of snow. So if my thoughts are correct the weekend of the 20th and 21st the chances of snow should be higher than models show today.

You know me Tim, I'm watching. Timing is everything as everyone obviously knows. We need a well timed shortwave to come at the right time during the transition period for there to be a chance. I think our thoughts are the same. The timing between us is a day or two difference, which is not a big deal at all from this distance

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:46 pm No arguments here with the 21st+- a day . Key words of course are "seasonal cold". The trough coming in at that time is out of the NW and we know that air is not yet arctic , so it shouldn't have an arctic bight to it . Although compared to what we've had before that it will feel colder

Exactly and it's just another reason why around the 22-23rd I said rain to snow being possible due to it being seasonal air. This response is pretty much the same response I alluded to with the above post to Tim.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:46 pm eps_z500a_namer_fh72-270.gif
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These images perfectly illustrate what we've all been talking about. Seasonal cold. Cold out West slowly bleeding East. Just need a well timed shortwave and we're in!

Great Posts tonight guys. Timing is the key and if we are off by a day or two no big deal at this point. I have always thought looking into the longer term models and when its warm they tend to keep it too warm once it sees the pattern change and the same goes for when we are cold heading to a warm period and it keeps the cold around too long. I just believe the models really sense the cold and we know the operational models are usually last to party. Plus with a bigger temp difference I believe more than likely too see a nice system later next week. Yes it could be just rain or rain switching to snow but I would expect something that weekend.

Back to current system and a nice dose of rain looks good and still not sold on any severe weather besides the heavy rain and maybe a little fog early before the rain arrives. Trying to find the trailing upper system and as the week has gone on it seems to be less of a factor. Looks like it may be trailing the cold front itself by 6 hours or so and that may be the problem as the cold front will have pushed much of the moisture to the east by the time it arrives. Yes we still get snow flurries and a few snow showers and it will look and feel like January on Friday but no doubt less than an inch and even the mountains to the east may get the lower amounts than I thought but still expect a few places to get into the 2-4 inch range there just with the upsloping of the mountains.

Good evening folks! Light shower totals so far are CVG with 0.02" and myself with 0.01" so we're on the board! Look for foggy conditions tonight and early tomorrow morning also before the better rains stir things up.

Quite the lightning show with that line near Louisville

Good Morning and I missed the morning forecast. I thought the severe weather would stay well south but I know it got into southeast Indiana and strong storms for the remainder of us. Heavy rain and some hail along with thunder and lightning at my house. I don't mind missing a high or low temp or too much or too little rain but not a fan of myself when folks need to get to work. Matter fact the rain came in about an 1 hour earlier than I expected.