Absolute Vorticity

This run keeps snow showers going on and off for all of Friday and into Fri night. Granted I don't believe the widespread 5-6" totals it has for our area but it's cool to look at. Anyway, that's the key... backlash snows on Friday for the beefier totals to have a chance. If it's over by or before 7am Fri the lower end works out just fine.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:43 am Wow... check out the temp drop in Montana...

Holy Cow.

Thanks for all the updates everyone is posting. I'm working on last minute snow stuff running around. Taking a quick break to see results of the early models

Does seem like the Euro and the GFS have tracked east this morning or am I wrong?

Hey JP! The cold that is coming is no doubt, some pretty serious business. I'm starting to watch what is happening upstream. So far no surprises but this system is only in its early stages of development.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:08 am Does seem like the Euro and the GFS have tracked east this morning or am I wrong?

That has been the trend... that is correct. But it's also picked up speed which isn't good for seeing the higher totals.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:09 am Hey JP! The cold that is coming is no doubt, some pretty serious business. I'm starting to watch what is happening upstream. So far no surprises but this system is only in its early stages of development.

Yep. Crazy cold.

Over the next day or so it will be fun to watch and see where some of the models pick up on some heavier returns. Today the gfs has a 3 hour period where a heavy band is right over the tri-state and that is what will need to see to pick up some of the heavier totals.Is that correct and again hopefully by Thursday models are coming closer together. There are times 2-4 hours before an expected storm that surprises happen so lets wait and hope for that 3 hour period of heavier snow.

12Z CMC has 5-6"+ totals in our North and NW zones... 2-4" in the middle for DAY, CVG and CMG with 1-2" SE zones. That's a pretty fair snowfall distribution. This run vs the 0Z with a tick NE and stronger with the track.

Looks like the cold air is coming in quicker than predicted?

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:20 am

Looks like the cold air is coming in quicker than predicted?

I am not sold on what he is selling here. The northern plains were already frigid from the cold air that came in earlier this week. I believe that is just how cold it has been up there. Once the cold really starts to move and we see temps in the central plains then that will be a much better indicator of how fast the cold is coming .

the biggest thing that would bother me is the cold and the windchill . Lester is right that is going to be a real slap in the face come Friday. if your going to be outside for any reason you have to prepare also make sure you have a survival kit and extra clothes in your car if your traveling out in it.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:25 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:20 am

Looks like the cold air is coming in quicker than predicted?

I am not sold on what he is selling here. The northern plains were already frigid from the cold air that came in earlier this week. I believe that is just how cold it has been up there. Once the cold really starts to move and we see temps in the central plains then that will be a much better indicator of how fast the cold is coming .

I do believe that the speed of the front has sped up so the cold air IMO is going to come in quicker. Not sure about the unpredicted part. I don't agree with that part of the tweet. The models are predicting it if you have monitored the trends the last day or two. I've said it myself.

EDIT: Second, I think the tweet author is actually talking about the cold air itself being colder then model projections. That isn't shocking.

12Z GEFS Mean shows my snowfall call perfectly. 4" in our West / NW counties. 3" in the middle and 2" in the SE. That's a nice assessment IMO. Again no changes to my forecasted call for our forum coverage area. I think I'm going to let it ride and see what happens.

The hounds are thinking the same way, although our map is a general 2-4" for the N. Ky. area.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:18 am Over the next day or so it will be fun to watch and see where some of the models pick up on some heavier returns. Today the gfs has a 3 hour period where a heavy band is right over the tri-state and that is what will need to see to pick up some of the heavier totals.Is that correct and again hopefully by Thursday models are coming closer together. There are times 2-4 hours before an expected storm that surprises happen so lets wait and hope for that 3 hour period of heavier snow.

That would be quite a surprise, im expecting 1-2 hrs of the heavy stuff then 1-2 hrs of light

ILN currently has Greenville at a high of 2 Fri, 6 Christmas Eve and 13 Christmas Day.

PSA: For those that have Rumpke e.g. pickup service scheduled for Fri like my folks and I do, you may want to roll out your curbside carts this evening since rain moving in for much of Thurs and then ahead of the changeover Thurs night.

The trash guy or gal may have to give the cart lid a thump or two if scheduled Fri to loosen the icy crust over.

Also don't be surprised if mail is delayed or not at all re residences re Fri and Sat due to the nasty conditions. Yes I know what the USPS motto is but a storm system like this may be an exception.

Winter storm watch and Wind Chill Watches just issued

Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Union OH-Delaware-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Marysville, Delaware, Springfield, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden,
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia,
Washington Court House, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford,
Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester,
and Cincinnati
1212 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, combination of snow, blowing
snow, and wind possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. For the
Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind
chills as low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and
Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday evening
through Friday afternoon. For the Wind Chill Watch, from late
Thursday night through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning commute as well as
holiday travel. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and
cause power outages. The dangerously cold wind chills could
cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the
matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling
well below freezing, leading to the potential for a flash
freeze. This will cause travel conditions to rapidly
deteriorate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation

www.weather.gov/iln

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:09 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:08 am Does seem like the Euro and the GFS have tracked east this morning or am I wrong?

That has been the trend... that is correct. But it's also picked up speed which isn't good for seeing the higher totals.

With the system to our east forming along the coast will that potentially slow down the incoming storm from the west?

The NWS does a great overall and though I have a few complaints from time to time I understand that some factors are just to tough to predict in a short period of time and talking about 2 -3 hours. First of all late to the party in issuing a winter storm watch but at least they finally got that correct. The problem is that part of the local tri-state is not included. Okay fine if that is what you believe will be the final outcome but you should at least issued a winter weather advisory. Most folks don't follow the weather like we do and giving this info ahead of time is the correct thing to do. I am not sure what orders they must follow but even the less severe case with this storm warrants some kind of advisory or watch.

It looks like the watches are NW of I-71. Wind chill watch for everyone though. Indy to no surprise has busted out a winter storm warning!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:05 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:18 am Over the next day or so it will be fun to watch and see where some of the models pick up on some heavier returns. Today the gfs has a 3 hour period where a heavy band is right over the tri-state and that is what will need to see to pick up some of the heavier totals.Is that correct and again hopefully by Thursday models are coming closer together. There are times 2-4 hours before an expected storm that surprises happen so lets wait and hope for that 3 hour period of heavier snow.

That would be quite a surprise, im expecting 1-2 hrs of the heavy stuff then 1-2 hrs of light

This is a good call due to the overall speed of this system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:26 pm The NWS does a great overall and though I have a few complaints from time to time I understand that some factors are just to tough to predict in a short period of time and talking about 2 -3 hours. First of all late to the party in issuing a winter storm watch but at least they finally got that correct. The problem is that part of the local tri-state is not included. Okay fine if that is what you believe will be the final outcome but you should at least issued a winter weather advisory. Most folks don't follow the weather like we do and giving this info ahead of time is the correct thing to do. I am not sure what orders they must follow but even the less severe case with this storm warrants some kind of advisory or watch.

I'm surprised we don't even have an advisory yet in this area. Due to impacts (not snowfall) as well as Holiday Travel. I sure hope they issue it with the afternoon package.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:26 pm The NWS does a great overall and though I have a few complaints from time to time I understand that some factors are just to tough to predict in a short period of time and talking about 2 -3 hours. First of all late to the party in issuing a winter storm watch but at least they finally got that correct. The problem is that part of the local tri-state is not included. Okay fine if that is what you believe will be the final outcome but you should at least issued a winter weather advisory. Most folks don't follow the weather like we do and giving this info ahead of time is the correct thing to do. I am not sure what orders they must follow but even the less severe case with this storm warrants some kind of advisory or watch.

I was also thinking this. Makes more sense to alert people of the potential and upgrade or cancel as needed. Some people only hear about a storm by word of mouth and then tune in for updates.

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:09 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:08 am Does seem like the Euro and the GFS have tracked east this morning or am I wrong?

That has been the trend... that is correct. But it's also picked up speed which isn't good for seeing the higher totals.

With the system to our east forming along the coast will that potentially slow down the incoming storm from the west?

Unfortunately no. It is very weak and the incoming system is going to be a big bully and just overpower everything. The cold is overwhelming. It's a fine line we walk with this system. Yes, we need it to deepen later for a batter track for us, but at the same time, the backend snows won't be as impressive or long lasting this far to the south. This system isn't going to stall for 12 hours as older solutions from 3-5 days ago were showing.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:07 pm ILN currently has Greenville at a high of 2 Fri, 6 Christmas Eve and 13 Christmas Day.

PSA: For those that have Rumpke e.g. pickup service scheduled for Fri like my folks and I do, you may want to roll out your curbside carts this evening since rain moving in for much of Thurs and then ahead of the changeover Thurs night.

The trash guy or gal may have to give the cart lid a thump or two if scheduled Fri to loosen the icy crust over.

Also don't be surprised if mail is delayed or not at all re residences re Fri and Sat due to the nasty conditions. Yes I know what the USPS motto is but a storm system like this may be an exception.

USPS sucks here. I don't get mail 1 or 2 days a week by default these days. I had to go to online bill pay so my bills weren't late. Our trash service, Bestway has that robotic arm that lifts the can up, dumps it into the truck, then sets it back down. The driver doesn't even need to leave the truck.