Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Can't wait to read more of the Hounds forecasts as we go forward in time!
Hope we can all start barking in the next 5 days!Both options are on the table as you know. It'll be interesting either way to see what happens. You're right about the big dogs. They are so tough to get around here, but when they happen, that's what makes them so special.fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:43 pm I'd rather skip the big dog and take something that comes in pieces. 90% of the time, we get rain and very little snow, because the larger system pull too much warm air along with them. A few broken pieces with a few smaller events of all snow would be perfect.
I think we have seen plenty of 33 and rain too, like last year!
You're right Tim. My mistake. The energy does get suppressed as you said. It is very weak to begin with though so the polar jet can easily be the bully in this case. I think it's fine since that opens the door for the bigger trough diving in by the middle of next week. A lot of energy to be had with this set up that is for sure. We just have too many unknowns (as you know lol) right now.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:37 am Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol
You are correct Les and I believe by the weekend hopefully the models are starting to figure out the set up. Need that ridging ahead of a storm to bring it northeast and there is some early week so that was another I thought we may have the system move this way. It may form and stay in the Tn Valley and that is very possible but like you mentioned too many unknowns. Concerning next week and going to look at trends and also what I see going on in other areas of North America. Some of these trends will show up on the models and others you must look for them. I know once you get a nice polar outbreak its hard stop it from moving but since it looks to be a very wide area this may slow it down just a hair. Saying that I can see where we get a big storm but maybe in the 23-25th range so about a day or day and half earlier than some models are showing. Again just a trend I see and not sure the models will show this at this time.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:51 amYou're right Tim. My mistake. The energy does get suppressed as you said. It is very weak to begin with though so the polar jet can easily be the bully in this case. I think it's fine since that opens the door for the bigger trough diving in by the middle of next week. A lot of energy to be had with this set up that is for sure. We just have too many unknowns (as you know lol) right now.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:37 am Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol
Great post Tim!!! Let's focus on the ridging near the West Coast of North America so we can try and figure out the angle of attack that the big trough will take. All about timing as you well know. We need the correct angle and timing to get some southern moisture involved. Not too much or it's rain to snow but just enough to get us a few inches for Christmas. That would make most folks happy. At the same time, the big dog potential is also still there in my mind. We honestly may not know until 3-4 days out with such an extreme set up.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:00 amYou are correct Les and I believe by the weekend hopefully the models are starting to figure out the set up. Need that ridging ahead of a storm to bring it northeast and there is some early week so that was another I thought we may have the system move this way. It may form and stay in the Tn Valley and that is very possible but like you mentioned too many unknowns. Concerning next week and going to look at trends and also what I see going on in other areas of North America. Some of these trends will show up on the models and others you must look for them. I know once you get a nice polar outbreak its hard stop it from moving but since it looks to be a very wide area this may slow it down just a hair. Saying that I can see where we get a big storm but maybe in the 23-25th range so about a day or day and half earlier than some models are showing. Again just a trend I see and not sure the models will show this at this time.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:51 amYou're right Tim. My mistake. The energy does get suppressed as you said. It is very weak to begin with though so the polar jet can easily be the bully in this case. I think it's fine since that opens the door for the bigger trough diving in by the middle of next week. A lot of energy to be had with this set up that is for sure. We just have too many unknowns (as you know lol) right now.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:37 am Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol
Per NWS Duluth, 1-2 feet expected in NE Minnesota!tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:03 am Nice little snowstorm heading for north central Wisconsin later today and Thursday. Expecting 8-12 inches so I need to tell my son this is what you can expect in that area of the country. Plus once that snow pack is down up there it seldom goes away for weeks and sometimes months.
Check out the SPC mesopage, Tim. The primary low of 998 MB continues to weaken over NE Nebraska. A new low is starting to form (as you mentioned) over Louisiana and that'll be round 2 for us later on today into tonight. Then that low will weaken and give way to the East Coast event for later this week. It appears my original idea of 3 total lows is going to work out after all.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:08 am Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.
I gotcha!
I like the period right now of 12/22-12/24 myself. That's a good range for the 22nd being 8 days out still.Good deal! Hopefully you will have more time to post too! Always like reading your thoughts and insight that get injected into our discussions.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:29 am Putting all the fall cleanup tools and machinery into hibernation . With the fall drought it made for easier work conditions, could use even heavier equipment without damage to lawns the whole way through, even got to some work I thought would have to wait until spring . Time to put the blades and chains on equipment .