December 2022 Weather Discussion

[allowat3]

Me and the hounds are excited about the potential for the cold air showing up around Christmas. Hoping we get some snow to go with it. Being so far out though, the models are going to change a lot. It will be fun to track though!

[fyrfyter]

I'd rather skip the big dog and take something that comes in pieces. 90% of the time, we get rain and very little snow, because the larger system pull too much warm air along with them. A few broken pieces with a few smaller events of all snow would be perfect.

[tron777]

Me and the hounds are excited about the potential for the cold air showing up around Christmas. Hoping we get some snow to go with it. Being so far out though, the models are going to change a lot. It will be fun to track though!

Can't wait to read more of the Hounds forecasts as we go forward in time! Hope we can all start barking in the next 5 days!

[tron777]

I'd rather skip the big dog and take something that comes in pieces. 90% of the time, we get rain and very little snow, because the larger system pull too much warm air along with them. A few broken pieces with a few smaller events of all snow would be perfect.

Both options are on the table as you know. It'll be interesting either way to see what happens. You're right about the big dogs. They are so tough to get around here, but when they happen, that's what makes them so special.

[MVWxObserver]

Looks interesting for sure!

Prayerfully this winter in general won't be extremely harsh temp-wise as a couple months ago I saw some reports re particularly up and down the East coast and the Southeast could be hard hit via natural gas fuel shortages. I have family and extended family members in TN, NC, VA and FL.

Currently 34 here in G'ville and progged to hold steady at that number into Wed morning.

[tron777]

Rain is closing in on extreme Western KY. Probably an hour or two away from Evansville still. It is headed our way for late tonight and esp for the AM commute tomorrow. Another round tomorrow late afternoon and evening as well so watch the PM commute also.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Good morning all! I've picked up about a half inch already. A few more hours to go then things will lighten if not end briefly until late today into tonight when the next wave comes thru ahead of the front due in for Thurs morning. Still expecting some scattered snow showers Fri and maybe some snow squalls on Saturday for a little fun! Then... all eyes are on the pattern and storms as we head into next week and Christmas itself.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. This morning it was 39 and rain and I always mentioned that I love 38 and rain. Not because that is my favorite period but usually each winter once we get a day with 38 and rain winter is getting nearer and that is the case this year.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les. This morning it was 39 and rain and I always mentioned that I love 38 and rain. Not because that is my favorite period but usually each winter once we get a day with 38 and rain winter is getting nearer and that is the case this year.

I think we have seen plenty of 33 and rain too, like last year!

[tron777]

For next week.... that weak wave that tries to turn into something for the Monday / Tues period continues to just get ripped apart by modeling so unless something changes in the next couple of days... dry and cold is the call. Then all eyes are on Thurs the 22nd. Models are trying to come into a little bit of agreement here with a major arctic cold front passing thru. Can we get a low to spin up along the front at the right time to give us more snow? Does it happen early and it's rain changing to snow? This is a very dynamic situation with a negatively tilted trough diving into the country. Look at the 500 MB vorticity maps and you'll see what I mean. I don't think the models have a good handle on this yet. Hopefully by Monday we'll start to see the picture a little more clearly. This system has the potential to be our first storm thread of the winter season and to give us a White Christmas too!

[tpweather]

Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol

[tron777]

Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol

You're right Tim. My mistake. The energy does get suppressed as you said. It is very weak to begin with though so the polar jet can easily be the bully in this case. I think it's fine since that opens the door for the bigger trough diving in by the middle of next week. A lot of energy to be had with this set up that is for sure. We just have too many unknowns (as you know lol) right now.

[tpweather]

Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol

You're right Tim. My mistake. The energy does get suppressed as you said. It is very weak to begin with though so the polar jet can easily be the bully in this case. I think it's fine since that opens the door for the bigger trough diving in by the middle of next week. A lot of energy to be had with this set up that is for sure. We just have too many unknowns (as you know lol) right now.

You are correct Les and I believe by the weekend hopefully the models are starting to figure out the set up. Need that ridging ahead of a storm to bring it northeast and there is some early week so that was another I thought we may have the system move this way. It may form and stay in the Tn Valley and that is very possible but like you mentioned too many unknowns. Concerning next week and going to look at trends and also what I see going on in other areas of North America. Some of these trends will show up on the models and others you must look for them. I know once you get a nice polar outbreak its hard stop it from moving but since it looks to be a very wide area this may slow it down just a hair. Saying that I can see where we get a big storm but maybe in the 23-25th range so about a day or day and half earlier than some models are showing. Again just a trend I see and not sure the models will show this at this time.

[tpweather]

Nice little snowstorm heading for north central Wisconsin later today and Thursday. Expecting 8-12 inches so I need to tell my son this is what you can expect in that area of the country. Plus once that snow pack is down up there it seldom goes away for weeks and sometimes months.

[tpweather]

Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.

[tron777]

Going to be busy Les. The early week system and I am not so sure its getting ripped apart but a rather strong 1048 high to the north is suppressing the system to the gulf states. Still going to watch this and not sold that the 1048 high will be in the northern plains at that time. I can only go from memory and models just have a hard time with that set up. The gom will have recovered by then so not worried about moisture return but will a system form and then head east northeast. Just looking at the models and the answer is no but we know those models can play tricks lol

You're right Tim. My mistake. The energy does get suppressed as you said. It is very weak to begin with though so the polar jet can easily be the bully in this case. I think it's fine since that opens the door for the bigger trough diving in by the middle of next week. A lot of energy to be had with this set up that is for sure. We just have too many unknowns (as you know lol) right now.

You are correct Les and I believe by the weekend hopefully the models are starting to figure out the set up. Need that ridging ahead of a storm to bring it northeast and there is some early week so that was another I thought we may have the system move this way. It may form and stay in the Tn Valley and that is very possible but like you mentioned too many unknowns. Concerning next week and going to look at trends and also what I see going on in other areas of North America. Some of these trends will show up on the models and others you must look for them. I know once you get a nice polar outbreak its hard stop it from moving but since it looks to be a very wide area this may slow it down just a hair. Saying that I can see where we get a big storm but maybe in the 23-25th range so about a day or day and half earlier than some models are showing. Again just a trend I see and not sure the models will show this at this time.

Great post Tim!!! Let's focus on the ridging near the West Coast of North America so we can try and figure out the angle of attack that the big trough will take. All about timing as you well know. We need the correct angle and timing to get some southern moisture involved. Not too much or it's rain to snow but just enough to get us a few inches for Christmas. That would make most folks happy. At the same time, the big dog potential is also still there in my mind. We honestly may not know until 3-4 days out with such an extreme set up.

[tron777]

Nice little snowstorm heading for north central Wisconsin later today and Thursday. Expecting 8-12 inches so I need to tell my son this is what you can expect in that area of the country. Plus once that snow pack is down up there it seldom goes away for weeks and sometimes months.

Per NWS Duluth, 1-2 feet expected in NE Minnesota!

[tpweather]

Les the big dog is on the table with the arctic outbreak but like you mentioned the angle of attack is so important. I also meant to say a bigger storm is about a day or a day and half slower so you are nearing Christmas.

[tron777]

Do we end up with more than 1 inch of rain by Thursday morning. Interesting as the front heading this way is forming a nice low pressure and why you see parts of Wisconsin getting some heavy snow. This low is strengthening as it heads along the front. Yes we will have more rain later this evening and early Thursday but with a strengthening storm this can bring in a dry slot quicker and shut off the rainfall. At the same time a low is trying to form off the east coast and always hard to determine when it starts to grab moisture west of the apps.

Check out the SPC mesopage, Tim. The primary low of 998 MB continues to weaken over NE Nebraska. A new low is starting to form (as you mentioned) over Louisiana and that'll be round 2 for us later on today into tonight. Then that low will weaken and give way to the East Coast event for later this week. It appears my original idea of 3 total lows is going to work out after all.

[tron777]

Les the big dog is on the table with the arctic outbreak but like you mentioned the angle of attack is so important. I also meant to say a bigger storm is about a day or a day and half slower so you are nearing Christmas.

I gotcha! I like the period right now of 12/22-12/24 myself. That's a good range for the 22nd being 8 days out still.

[tron777]

CVG checking in with 0.37" as of 9am. My corrected total is 0.46" as of this post.

[Bgoney]

Putting all the fall cleanup tools and machinery into hibernation . With the fall drought it made for easier work conditions, could use even heavier equipment without damage to lawns the whole way through, even got to some work I thought would have to wait until spring . Time to put the blades and chains on equipment .

[tron777]

Putting all the fall cleanup tools and machinery into hibernation . With the fall drought it made for easier work conditions, could use even heavier equipment without damage to lawns the whole way through, even got to some work I thought would have to wait until spring . Time to put the blades and chains on equipment .

Good deal! Hopefully you will have more time to post too! Always like reading your thoughts and insight that get injected into our discussions.

[Bgoney]

Parts of Australia continue to get significant cold intrusions for what now is their summer, most impressive was the -5.4C (22.3F) set at Mt. Hotham, a reading which felled the State of Victoria’s lowest December (and summer) temperature ever recorded, the -5.2C (22.6F) from Dec 20, 1978 (solar minimum of cycle 20).

The Caribbean has also been unusually cold , coldest December start for some of the islands in 30 years. Martinique had their lowest temp ever recorded of 53 degrees