Absolute Vorticity

Here's a look at the drought from a Midwest view from ILN.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:11 am Glad trick-or-treating will be dry here in Greenville as the city has it Thurs Oct 27th from 7-9 PM.

I got ahead of myself last night. Its the "Beggars's Night" in the Greenville uptown-downtown area businesses tonight.

Citywide trick-or-treating is Sun Oct 30th from 6-8 PM.

Currently 52 and progged to top out at around 55 here in my area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:21 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:12 am That's about right for most decent soils around here, assuming most of that would soak in and not runoff. Of course sandy soils (and freshly worked garden soils)which are rare for most here ,would only take 2 or 3" to soak the column. Then there is the clay based soils which are many around here due to construction, God only knows how much is needed to soak into those soil situations

I hate the clay we have here. It's either like concrete (when it's dry) or like mush when it's wet. no middle of the road. It doesn't hold moisture. Water just runs off too when you get a heavy rain with dry conditions going in. Yep... that's my hood alright.

Sounds like the red clay type that my folks and I had in NC.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:21 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:12 am That's about right for most decent soils around here, assuming most of that would soak in and not runoff. Of course sandy soils (and freshly worked garden soils)which are rare for most here ,would only take 2 or 3" to soak the column. Then there is the clay based soils which are many around here due to construction, God only knows how much is needed to soak into those soil situations

I hate the clay we have here. It's either like concrete (when it's dry) or like mush when it's wet. no middle of the road. It doesn't hold moisture. Water just runs off too when you get a heavy rain with dry conditions going in. Yep... that's my hood alright.

Sounds like the red clay type that my folks and I had in NC.

If I recall, it's the iron down there that makes it red, correct? Our soil is very acidic here. I used to add lime to neutralize it sometimes.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:37 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 2:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:21 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:12 am That's about right for most decent soils around here, assuming most of that would soak in and not runoff. Of course sandy soils (and freshly worked garden soils)which are rare for most here ,would only take 2 or 3" to soak the column. Then there is the clay based soils which are many around here due to construction, God only knows how much is needed to soak into those soil situations

I hate the clay we have here. It's either like concrete (when it's dry) or like mush when it's wet. no middle of the road. It doesn't hold moisture. Water just runs off too when you get a heavy rain with dry conditions going in. Yep... that's my hood alright.

Sounds like the red clay type that my folks and I had in NC.

If I recall, it's the iron down there that makes it red, correct? Our soil is very acidic here. I used to add lime to neutralize it sometimes.

Yes, probably the iron bro.

Good Afternoon and made it to SC. Traffic very heavy today. Peak leaves in Northern Tn and the mountains of Tn and Nc. Still probably a week to 10 days away from peak down here. Will need to look at a few things but my guess is the system for Sunday is still in the works with more showers or drizzle on Monday. Probably similar to the last system but maybe a tad slower so I will go with .50- .75 at CVG though folks further north may see less. Long term my guess is the gfs from yesterday still looks good as I expect a nice mild and dry week after Monday. Expect a nice SE Ridge to form because of some tropical activity to the south and though I don't expect any land falling systems this system should help in making that ridge a little stronger which should help in keeping systems from getting to far east though I would expect a break down somewhere in the 8th-10th period. Will be back on later tonight

Glad you made it down to SC safely Tim! Bring some colder weather back when you come home, will you?

Some beautiful days coming up in the next week other than than the sunday/Monday light rain event. Hanging with .20-.50" for most of AVland.

Good Morning and looks like a beautiful day in store. The system coming here Sunday and Monday looks right on track and like the last system should produce rain for most folks. Funny as we get closer to the system you see the models pulling it a little further northwest and this is nothing new around as we see this quite often with fall and winter systems. Sticking with .5-.75 for folks near and south of the river but folks towards the I-70 may end up with totals closer to a 1/3 of an inch as the closed low will become an open wave as it nears us and that is why I believe totals to the north will be less. Not a drought buster by any means but getting a few systems a week does help. Halloween looks like a very typical one with temps in the 50's, some wind blowing and maybe a leftover shower though nothing to cause any problems with the kids.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:26 am Some beautiful days coming up in the next week other than than the sunday/Monday light rain event. Hanging with .20-.50" for most of AVland.

I like this call too, much like our last system. Heaviest rains come Sun afternoon and evening with more drizzle / light rain kind of stuff for Halloween.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:25 am Good Morning and looks like a beautiful day in store. The system coming here Sunday and Monday looks right on track and like the last system should produce rain for most folks. Funny as we get closer to the system you see the models pulling it a little further northwest and this is nothing new around as we see this quite often with fall and winter systems. Sticking with .5-.75 for folks near and south of the river but folks towards the I-70 may end up with totals closer to a 1/3 of an inch as the closed low will become an open wave as it nears us and that is why I believe totals to the north will be less. Not a drought buster by any means but getting a few systems a week does help. Halloween looks like a very typical one with temps in the 50's, some wind blowing and maybe a leftover shower though nothing to cause any problems with the kids.

You're a tad higher then Bgoney and I for folks south of the river, but virtually, it's basically the same forecast. Totally agree with the temps you've got here too. Looks perfect! We'll be flirting with 70 this Sat and maybe again Wed / Thurs of next week. As everyone has been saying, some nice fall weather continuing for the area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:30 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:25 am Good Morning and looks like a beautiful day in store. The system coming here Sunday and Monday looks right on track and like the last system should produce rain for most folks. Funny as we get closer to the system you see the models pulling it a little further northwest and this is nothing new around as we see this quite often with fall and winter systems. Sticking with .5-.75 for folks near and south of the river but folks towards the I-70 may end up with totals closer to a 1/3 of an inch as the closed low will become an open wave as it nears us and that is why I believe totals to the north will be less. Not a drought buster by any means but getting a few systems a week does help. Halloween looks like a very typical one with temps in the 50's, some wind blowing and maybe a leftover shower though nothing to cause any problems with the kids.

You're a tad higher then Bgoney and I for folks south of the river, but virtually, it's basically the same forecast. Totally agree with the temps you've got here too. Looks perfect! We'll be flirting with 70 this Sat and maybe again Wed / Thurs of next week. As everyone has been saying, some nice fall weather continuing for the area.

Good Morning Les and went a tad higher with this system as I expect a littler longer duration. Again the difference between the forecast are not that great and I will always point to where we usually end up somewhere in the middle and if that is the case with this system then .5 would be that exact middle of the road rainfall total.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:30 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 7:25 am Good Morning and looks like a beautiful day in store. The system coming here Sunday and Monday looks right on track and like the last system should produce rain for most folks. Funny as we get closer to the system you see the models pulling it a little further northwest and this is nothing new around as we see this quite often with fall and winter systems. Sticking with .5-.75 for folks near and south of the river but folks towards the I-70 may end up with totals closer to a 1/3 of an inch as the closed low will become an open wave as it nears us and that is why I believe totals to the north will be less. Not a drought buster by any means but getting a few systems a week does help. Halloween looks like a very typical one with temps in the 50's, some wind blowing and maybe a leftover shower though nothing to cause any problems with the kids.

You're a tad higher then Bgoney and I for folks south of the river, but virtually, it's basically the same forecast. Totally agree with the temps you've got here too. Looks perfect! We'll be flirting with 70 this Sat and maybe again Wed / Thurs of next week. As everyone has been saying, some nice fall weather continuing for the area.

Good Morning Les and went a tad higher with this system as I expect a littler longer duration. Again the difference between the forecast are not that great and I will always point to where we usually end up somewhere in the middle and if that is the case with this system then .5 would be that exact middle of the road rainfall total.

Good morning Tim! I think a half inch will be a very common number. Expecting that for CVG / our hoods.

October is almost in the books and a brief recap. Temps will end up about 1 1/2 below normal and daytime highs about 1/2 below normal but nighttime lows over 3 degrees below normal. Precip will end up well below normal and after the system this weekend it looks like we will be near an inch or so of rainfall. I enjoyed this October and really felt like an more extended period of autumn weather as the trees turned color earlier and with temps below normal it just felt wonderful.

I think Nov will be the opposite. Well above normal temps. Precip is a bit more difficult to predict in my mind since we still have very dry conditions. Playing it safe and will call for near normal. It won't be as dry as we've seen for this month, but I don't think we are looking at 5-6" of rain either.

I'm leaving for a quick trip to Mich early in the morning, be back Sun evening. Yes, I will pass out candy after work on Halloween too. Sat looking nice up there in the 60s and close to 70 for you guys. I'll drive into the rain in my way home that should start here from SW to NE as the afternoon unfolds Sunday.

0.37" from the 12Z Euro at CVG - event total being forecast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 4:12 pm 0.37" from the 12Z Euro at CVG - event total being forecast.

Pretty similar to the last system in terms of rain totals predicted. Still holding with the .5-.75 at CVG. These totals will be lighter towards I-70 and to the east of the local area

Have a great trip to Mich Bro!

Currently 55 here in G'ville and progged for around 35 Sat morning.

Hopefully not much of a delay if any for Game 1 of the WS.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 4:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 4:12 pm 0.37" from the 12Z Euro at CVG - event total being forecast.

Pretty similar to the last system in terms of rain totals predicted. Still holding with the .5-.75 at CVG. These totals will be lighter towards I-70 and to the east of the local area

Which as you know is my call. Watch it be a half inch on the dot and we're both right. I don't think anyone would complain.

Re Minute Maid Park where the 'Stros play, its got a retractable roof ...shows how much I know about the AL and some of their stadiums lol.

Currently 50 here in G'ville.

40 right now imby as I get ready to hit the road...

Good Morning and a nice Saturday in store. When does the rain arrive and how much and how long does it last are keys to final totals. Like the last system it will need to overcome dry air though not quite as dry as last week. The rain should arrive early Sunday morning with a steadier rain at first and then becoming more scattered later in the day. The scattered showers should continue through Monday night. Totals locally should be in the .5-.75 and the reason being is the amount of time we have showers around. With the first main batch we receive much of the rainfall and expect .4-.6 and then with the scattered showers another .15.

Longer term we are starting to see more systems trying to work in here and seasonally it makes sense with colder air trying to get more involved with each system. This will also set up a battle between the Southeast Ridge and troughs trying to dig their way in. The ridge is helped by the tropics as they are not completely dead and this will help with the southeast ridge becoming somewhat stronger than normal this time of year. Who wins the fight and the troughs will finally make inroads but it takes time and yes we can see a nice cold spell here and there over the next 3 weeks but not expecting a change to full winter until Thanksgiving or later. Models will go back and forth and that is usually the case this time of year but an early start to winter is still in the books imo.