Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:53 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:52 pm Looks like the low pressure off to our northeast is trying to throw a few showers back this way from central Ohio. Again these will be scattered and light but I got a shower last night that lasted 10 minutes so never say never to a brief shower.

Posted: **Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:59 pm**

Decent cell SW of CMH too. Coverage on radar isn't too shabby, more then I expected.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:24 am**

Good morning! Mid 80s possible today so another very nice day out there! We are still looking at low rain chances Sat, high chances Sun and Monday with lingering action thereafter as we head into next week. Pretty easy forecast when the guidance has been in such good agreement.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:42 am**

Dang, where's the daylight hours going?

Forecast Looks good to me Les, I think Saturday gives us the normal August 3 H's.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:01 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:42 am Dang, where's the daylight hours going?

Forecast Looks good to me Les, I think Saturday gives us the normal August 3 H's.

Last 8:30pm sunset tonight

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:17 am**

Cincy loses 1 hour and 6 minutes of daylight during August or about 2 minutes each day if this site is correct.

https://sunrise-sunset.org/us/cincinnati-oh

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:31 am**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:17 am Cincy loses 1 hour and 6 minutes of daylight during August or about 2 minutes each day if this site is correct.

https://sunrise-sunset.org/us/cincinnati-oh

It sounds about right to me, Mike. I'm noticing about 2-3 mins a day as well when looking at the sunrise and sunset times on the ILN climate report for CVG.

SUNRISE AND SUNSET
AUGUST 18 2022........SUNRISE 6:55 AM EDT SUNSET 8:30 PM EDT
AUGUST 19 2022........SUNRISE 6:56 AM EDT SUNSET 8:28 PM EDT

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:33 am**

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:40 am**

LAtest JMA keeps a fairly wet pattern going for much of September. Keeps the monsoon season going in the southwest and rockies, along with wetness for Texas up through the OV into the NE. Looks to me like it keeps any major tropical systems away from US mainland for the rest of August. Then for Sept. that looks to change as the SE coast is added to the favorable precip area. The heat Dome has also disappeared from the middle of the country, keeping that mostly in the NW

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:50 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:40 am LAtest JMA keeps a fairly wet pattern going for much of September. Keeps the monsoon season going in the southwest and rockies, along with wetness for Texas up through the OV into the NE. Looks to me like it keeps any major tropical systems away from US mainland for the rest of August. Then for Sept. that looks to change as the SE coast is added to the favorable precip area. The heat Dome has also disappeared from the middle of the country, keeping that mostly in the NW

I'll buy it. Sounds very logical to me in terms of where we are headed. Certainly a more autumnal like pattern is going to be settling in down the road. More +PNA likely with the trough over the eastern US. Would love to see this type of look continuing into the winter, but for now, Fall is def coming based on this. MJO is in the neutral circle currently but it expected to come out in Phase 2 later this month or early Sept so if correct, another sign that the tropical Atlantic will be waking up.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:01 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:40 am LAtest JMA keeps a fairly wet pattern going for much of September. Keeps the monsoon season going in the southwest and rockies, along with wetness for Texas up through the OV into the NE. Looks to me like it keeps any major tropical systems away from US mainland for the rest of August. Then for Sept. that looks to change as the SE coast is added to the favorable precip area. The heat Dome has also disappeared from the middle of the country, keeping that mostly in the NW

Could not agree more. This will also keep a damper on any return of 90's. Sure we can get one day here and there especially ahead of a cold front but any long term 90's are finished until at least next May.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:27 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:01 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:40 am LAtest JMA keeps a fairly wet pattern going for much of September. Keeps the monsoon season going in the southwest and rockies, along with wetness for Texas up through the OV into the NE. Looks to me like it keeps any major tropical systems away from US mainland for the rest of August. Then for Sept. that looks to change as the SE coast is added to the favorable precip area. The heat Dome has also disappeared from the middle of the country, keeping that mostly in the NW
Could not agree more. This will also keep a damper on any return of 90's. Sure we can get one day here and there especially ahead of a cold front but any long term 90's are finished until at least next May.

Totally agree with this....

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:00 pm**

The only major change from the 12Z GFS today was to bring in the rain Sunday but move it out by Monday. so if correct, early next week might be dry versus the lingering action I talked about earlier. The main constant is a wet Sunday.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:14 pm**

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:29 pm**

12z Euro has spotty coverage Sat, likely coverage Sun then back to spotty again for Mon and Tues of next week. That is a little slower then the GFS's timing but one that certainly makes sense.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:31 pm**

Such a beautiful day. Such a beautiful Mid-August week. In fact , my in-house B'goney climate model says this week is historical if not biblical, as it shows this is a 1 in 10,000 year weather event. Hope everyone has taken advantage!!!!

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:37 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:31 pm Such a beautiful day. Such a beautiful Mid-August week. In fact , my in-house B'goney climate model says this week is historical if not biblical, as it shows this is a 1 in 10,000 year weather event. Hope everyone has taken advantage!!!!

- Great post! It is a nice day and I'll probably mow after work today. Looks like dews have mixed out again into the U50s with a light NE wind. Just about perfect for mid Aug standards as you said.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:41 pm**

A beaut of a day and week for having had our shrubs trimmed and yard mowed.

Thank you Matt and Justin!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:37 pm**

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:14 pm**

This could change since its 2 weeks out but the GFS is starting to indicate a wet and potentially cool Labor Day weekend. Again, the timing and such will change, but the signs of Fall we keep talking about continue to show up on guidance.

Posted: **Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:51 pm**

SE Texas putting a big dent in their drought tonight

myanimation.gif

Posted: **Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:27 am**

Happy Friday all! Mid 80s today and tomorrow with the rain chances also starting tomorrow afternoon. Sunday still the best day for everyone. We also have a marginal risk for severe wx on Sat for Cincy on north. Then most everyone else is included on Sunday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Posted: **Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:45 am**

My low was 60 this morning. A lot of you outside of town I am sure dropped into the 50s.

Posted: **Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:50 am**

Based on the overnight guidance, no changes really to the ongoing forecast guys. Chance POPS late Sat. likely on Sunday then lingering action Monday and we should be dry for a bit after that, Like usual, some folks won't see much, and others will get an inch plus. Hopefully everyone can get a nice avg of a half inch.

Temp wise, mainly the 80s mid 80s and below so near normal to below as we have been seeing. Not much change there. Still believe that the 90s are done for the season and upper 80s at most would be all we see.

Posted: **Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:17 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:45 am My low was 60 this morning. A lot of you outside of town I am sure dropped into the 50s.

58 at home

Absolute Vorticity

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