Absolute Vorticity

It still needs to play out , but the scenario currently playing out is kind of what I was going with from this mornings forecast post. Models over the past few runs have been all over the place in regards to the warm front activity. But there was a scenario shown more than once which I think may be playing out, a cluster developing to our southwest near Louisville and expanding northward but the heavier or severe storms stayed to our south following the better parameters, although ours aren't bad , to the south is better. This give us kind of the leftovers, lighter rains and t-showers from complex one. Models also had complex two to the northwest of one in south central Indiana which then moved cvgland and northward. But blowoff and showers from complex one also then weaken these storms as they hit our region. Maybe it plays out this way maybe not , still expect a few rumbles of thunder and pockets of heavier rains before midnight to be the rule. The best chance for bigger storms probably comes as the upper low moves into the region overnight/early morning

You’re about to get smacked good Les!

Big time supercell heading into town. Some rotation is evident on radar.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Ohio County in southeastern Indiana...
Southeastern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...
Northern Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Northern Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Southwestern Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 711 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Aurora,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

I may get rocked by this one. Can hear the thunder and can see the darkening skies!

Here’s a Burlington zoom, Les.

If it moves due East it'll move right over me.

Vil is maxed out. Some big time stones coming out if that thing! Hopefully the hail core drops before it gets to you Les!

Looks like it's about 5 mins away now... almost here.

Reporting from the garage now.. I am seeing thunder, lightning and light rain at this time. Awaiting the wind and hail. Nothing severe yet.

Moderate rain with some nice lightning flashes. Thunder getting louder.

Hvy rain now. The core of it is here! So far... I am not impressed. No wind or hail so far.

Lighting and thunder are the only impressive things going on attm.

Oh wow, don't you love warm fronts. Impressive look on radar . Les , get some pics of the hail.

I guess it died. I've seen better non-warrened storms to be honest. Pathetic. Birds are outside chirping too lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 7:41 pm Oh wow, don't you love warm fronts. Impressive look on radar . Les , get some pics of the hail.

No hail here.

Anyone else near me seeing any severe wx? I can't understand why a warning was issued. This sucks lol

Definitely didn’t die, Les. Worst is off to your west still.

I am waiting Trev... if it weren't for your radar shot, I would have went to bed. Seriously, this storm is not impressive whatsoever. I'll wait it out to be certain. You never know in weather.

Wondering if it misses to the north and gets Hebron? That is very classic around here. I did just had a big thunder boom though and lightning flash that shook the house. Finally... Something impressive lol

Reflectivity is coming down a bit. Likely a sign that the hail core is dropping to the ground. Only a matter of time before we start seeing the storm reports rolling in.

Good Evening and looks like the weather is panning out rather nicely except the mcs is more south than predicted. This warm front is one that is active but the severe side is more isolated like we thought. Plenty of cloud to ground lightning and yes some heavy rain but these are still isolated in nature.

I was right. Your radar shot confirms it Trev. Worst is to my north as usual.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 7:53 pm Good Evening and looks like the weather is panning out rather nicely except the mcs is more south than predicted. This warm front is one that is active but the severe side is more isolated like we thought. Plenty of cloud to ground lightning and yes some heavy rain but these are still isolated in nature.

I'm beginning to think we had it right all along Tim.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 7:54 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 7:53 pm Good Evening and looks like the weather is panning out rather nicely except the mcs is more south than predicted. This warm front is one that is active but the severe side is more isolated like we thought. Plenty of cloud to ground lightning and yes some heavy rain but these are still isolated in nature.

I'm beginning to think we had it right all along Tim.

I agree Les