Absolute Vorticity

Its rather obvious atm, that ILN thinks the GFS is way overdone with snow .

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:48 am And to think... highs 50 to 55 most areas today But a lot of our big ones are usually warm the day or so preceding the event. Very typical for us.

Great Post Les and you are correct. Over the years some of the worse in the way of winter storms around here end up having a surge of warmth a day or two before and many times heavy rainfall. To get the big storms you must take a risk with the warmth and many times we get to much warmth during the storm. This time though it looks like the break in waves is truly a life saver if you want winter weather because that break is going to give us several hours for the front to continue heading south and east. If this was just one wave then folks in Illinois would be getting 2 feet while we have mainly rain changing to a little mix and snow. The 2 waves is sort of spreading out the wealth in terms of winter weather

ILN has expanded their graphic southeast a little. Gets me into the 8 to 12 (barely).

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:53 am Its rather obvious atm, that ILN thinks the GFS is way overdone with snow .

I somewhat agree with them but that line between say 2 inches and 6 inches could be within 20 miles. No doubt a tough call for them and hopefully they are able to keep up with the changes that will occur starting later Wednesday into early Friday. Sometimes they rely on the models too much during a storm instead of looking at what is really happening at the time.

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:57 am ILN has expanded their graphic southeast a little. Gets me into the 8 to 12 (barely).

Shift that map about 50-70 miles south and we are talking!

06z NAM would be a best case scenario for sure. Total sleet fest.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:48 am And to think... highs 50 to 55 most areas today But a lot of our big ones are usually warm the day or so preceding the event. Very typical for us.

I was just about to post the very same thing - how many times do we have a warm day and then BAM!

I'm not sure I t has been mentioned but we are probably going to see Ice Storm Warnings. Kind of rare indeed.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:06 am I'm not sure I t has been mentioned but we are probably going to see Ice Storm Warnings. Kind of rare indeed.

I fully expect to see ice storm warnings issued. Probably not for Cincinnati given that we are likely to see a variety of precip types; we'd get a winter storm warning to cover that. Best chance of primarily freezing rain appears to be south and east of town so those areas will likely require ice storm warnings.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:58 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:53 am Its rather obvious atm, that ILN thinks the GFS is way overdone with snow .

I somewhat agree with them but that line between say 2 inches and 6 inches could be within 20 miles. No doubt a tough call for them and hopefully they are able to keep up with the changes that will occur starting later Wednesday into early Friday. Sometimes they rely on the models too much during a storm instead of looking at what is really happening at the time.

I would like to see the NAM trend more in this direction to feel more comfortable in forecasting the snowier solutions.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:09 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:06 am I'm not sure I t has been mentioned but we are probably going to see Ice Storm Warnings. Kind of rare indeed.

I fully expect to see ice storm warnings issued. Probably not for Cincinnati given that we are likely to see a variety of precip types; we'd get a winter storm warning to cover that. Best chance of primarily freezing rain appears to be south and east of town so those areas will likely require ice storm warnings.

I mentioned ice storm warning possibilities the other day and agree, they are coming probably by tonight or tomorrow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:12 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:09 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:06 am I'm not sure I t has been mentioned but we are probably going to see Ice Storm Warnings. Kind of rare indeed.

I fully expect to see ice storm warnings issued. Probably not for Cincinnati given that we are likely to see a variety of precip types; we'd get a winter storm warning to cover that. Best chance of primarily freezing rain appears to be south and east of town so those areas will likely require ice storm warnings.

I mentioned ice storm warning possibilities the other day and agree, they are coming probably by tonight or tomorrow.

They are rare indeed and matter of fact you see these more further south especially in the south central states

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:12 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:09 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:06 am I'm not sure I t has been mentioned but we are probably going to see Ice Storm Warnings. Kind of rare indeed.

I fully expect to see ice storm warnings issued. Probably not for Cincinnati given that we are likely to see a variety of precip types; we'd get a winter storm warning to cover that. Best chance of primarily freezing rain appears to be south and east of town so those areas will likely require ice storm warnings.

I mentioned ice storm warning possibilities the other day and agree, they are coming probably by tonight or tomorrow.

They are rare indeed and matter of fact you see these more further south especially in the south central states

If the GFS is right, you'd see those painted over our SE CWA and LOU's CWA. If the NAM and CMC are right, it'll be closer to us, but as Trev said, thanks to the sleet potential too, we will probably see a winter storm warning in the Metro regardless.

9Z SREF Snowfall mean:

CVG - 1.5"
HAO - 1.9"
MGY - 2.3"
DAY - 3.5"
CMH - 2.5"

SREF likes the changeover from rain to frz rain / sleet at CVG Thurs morning around 8am or so. Up towards MGY, after 1am and 11pm-12am Wed night for DAY.

Snow Talk
https://www.wave3.com/2022/02/01/snowta ... update-21/

I went ahead and changed my classroom signage....

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:42 am I went ahead and changed my classroom signage....

Awesome! I assume the students still gather around the forum?

More prep work for today. I'm sure stores will be all out crazy. Hopefully stores will be fully stocked.

6z EU bumped north with the heavier snow amounts , so a nod toward the NAM.

To elaborate a little more on Ice Storm Warnings; they are rare for one reason. The predominant precipitation type has to be freezing rain. Freezing rain in and of itself is not rare; what is rare is to have it be the predominant precipitation type (little to no mixing with other precip types). Similar story to when we used to have Heavy Snow Warnings. Heavy snow isn't rare, but it had to be all snow. Typically with winter storms, there are a variety of precipitation types...especially around here. Hence why we typically see winter weather advisories or winter storm warnings.

NAM's off and running...

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:43 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:42 am I went ahead and changed my classroom signage....

Awesome! I assume the students still gather around the forum?

They hang on my every word as I read.....looking like they will get Thursday and Friday this week. They are not one bit excited LOL

NAM is going to come in south of the 6Z run IMO

The NAM does look a little colder at hour 36.

Wed night at 1am, NAM has 2M temps at CVG right at 32 degrees.